Gavin Baker – Investing Through a Bear Market - [Invest Like the Best, EP.167]
Play • 53 min

My guest today is with past guest Gavin Baker, the founder and CIO of Atreides Management, LP. We discuss investing during a bear market and the major ways in which the COVID19 outbreak has dramatically altered the investment landscape. Please enjoy my second conversation with Gavin Baker.

This episode is brought to by Koyfin.

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

Show Notes

(1:40) – How he sees the markets right now

(3:06) – How he handles information uncertainty and the value spreads

(5:53) – Trading in today’s market and the volatility

(9:45) – How the economic activity squares with the amount of stimulus being pumped into the market

            (13:11) – Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

(13:56) – Asset tests for individual companies in this environment

            (19:09) – This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

(20:45) – His take on software companies during the crisis

(28:57) – Fast pace of change during extreme times of duress

(35:14) – Space as a service

(39:52) – Attention and time inside digital universes and how investors can take advantage

(46:17) – Why chaos is a ladder

            (50:42) – It Was a Very Good Year: Extraordinary Moments in Stock Market History

 

Learn More

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

The Acquirers Podcast
The Acquirers Podcast
Tobias Carlisle
Capital Allocator: Ted Seides on investing in hedge funds ith Tobias on The Acquirers Podcast
Ted Seides, CFA, is the Founder of Capital Allocators LLC, which he created in 2016 to explore best practices in the asset management industry from the perspective of asset owners, asset managers, and other relevant players. He hosts the Capital Allocators podcast, serves as an advisor to allocators and asset managers, helps asset managers convey their story through private podcasts, and educates investors.   Ted's Twitter: https://twitter.com/tseides Ted's Website: https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/ ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I've launched a new podcast called The Acquirers Podcast. The podcast is about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public comp
50 min
Value Hive Podcast
Value Hive Podcast
Brandon Beylo
ARK Enters The Bear Cave w/ Edwin Dorsey
The Value Hive Podcast is brought to you by TIKR. Join the free beta today at TIKR.com/hive. They're constantly releasing new updates that make the platform better including a new Business Owner Mode that hides share count, market cap, and enterprise value. I couldn't be more excited to partner with TIKR. This week I chat with Edwin Dorsey, founder, and author of The Bear Cave. The Bear Cave is a short-focused newsletter dedicated to finding interesting companies doing sketchy things. Edwin began his obsession with the stock market in the second grade. As we discuss in the podcast, Edwin was born to be a short seller.  Our chat covers a few key topics around short-selling, including:  * What Makes A Great Short Idea (Hint: it's not "astronomical valuation") * The Importance of Shorting in Capital Markets * ETF Mechanics & The Impact of Front-Running Redemptions The bulk of the podcast focuses on the current ARK ETF dynamics and the potential of a severe redemption event. Edwin does a fantastic job describing the inner mechanics of ETFs and why the same "rails" that drove ARK up the AUM ladder could bring them down in the blink of an eye.  Here's the timestamp:  * [1:20] Is A Short Seller Born or Made?  * [4:10] What Makes A Great Short Idea?  * [8:00] Root Insurance $ROOT * [17:05] Interning at SEC Enforcement Division * [20:23] ARK Enters The Bear Cave * [35:12] What Makes 2021 Different Than The 2020 Flash Crash?  * [44:57] Vuzix Corp $VUZI * [58:04] Future of Bear Cave Newsletter * [61:00] Closing Questions If you like what you heard and you want to learn more about Edwin, check out these resources:  * Bear Cave Newsletter * Edwin Dorsey Twitter
1 hr 17 min
Acquired
Acquired
Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal
The New York Times Company
For the entire 20th Century, you’d be hard pressed to find a better business than an American newspaper — Warren Buffett famously described them as “franchises” — and no American newspaper stood taller than the New York Times. Controlled by a single family bound by a legal oath “to maintain the editorial independence and integrity of The New York Times and to continue it as an independent newspaper, entirely fearless, free of ulterior influence and unselfishly devoted to the public welfare”, the Times served as the paper of record for generations of Americans and people around the world. But no good thing lasts forever, and the dawn of the 21st Century saw both the Times and this once-mighty industry devastated by the dual disruptive forces of the internet and the 2008 financial crisis. And yet by 2021, The Times, essentially alone of its former peers, has reemerged from the American newspaper wreckage and transformed itself into a thriving digital business with an order of magnitude more subscribers than its print heyday. Curious how it all happened? We dive into 170 years of history to find out! If you love Acquired and want more, join our LP Community for access to over 50 LP-only episodes, monthly Zoom calls, and live access for big events like emergency pods and book club discussions with authors. We can't wait to see you there. Join here at: https://acquired.fm/lp/ Sponsors: * Thanks to Tiny for being our presenting sponsor for all of Acquired Season 8. Tiny is building the "Berkshire Hathaway of the internet" — if you own a wonderful internet business that you want to sell, or know someone who does, you should get in touch with them. Unlike traditional buyers, they commit to quick, simple diligence, a 30-day or less process, and will leave your business to do its thing for the long term. You can learn more about Tiny here: http://bit.ly/acquiredtiny * Thank you as well to Vouch and to Capchase. You can learn more about them at: * https://bit.ly/acquired-vouch * http://bit.ly/acquiredcapchase The New York Times Company Playbook: (also available on our website at https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/the-new-york-times-company ) 1. When you find yourself sitting in front of a big approaching demand wave... ride it!! * The New York (Daily) Times was founded during the newspaper boom of the 1850s, and similarly Adolph Ochs took over the local Chattanooga paper at the start of that city’s mining boom. * The NYT made huge investments in its reporting during the two World Wars as the public’s appetite for news exploded, while its rivals missed the ball worrying over preserving advertising space. Likewise NYT launched The Daily (which would become the biggest podcast in the world) immediately following Trump’s inauguration in early 2017. * Arguably NYT’s biggest business mistake was missing the cable wave -- which Rupert Murdoch leveraged brilliantly to build Fox News into the most valuable news media franchise in the world. 2. Where there’s an entrepreneurial will, there’s an entrepreneurial way. * Adolph Ochs bought the Chattanooga Times with $250 and sellers’ notes, and then acquired The New York Times out of bankruptcy with no personal money down and $100k of real estate debt. And turned them both into successes on a level no one (even himself at times) believed possible. 3. Recurring Acquired theme: the media business is still the second-best business of all time, behind technology. * Media’s ability to generate dual revenue streams (advertising and subscription) from the same content product generates enormous leverage on investment, AND most of those costs are fixed vs. variable (especially in a digital environment). 4. This is why “content is king” has always been true in the media industry. * NYT’s version of this strategy has always been to invest more in high-quality journalism than any of its peers. It was true in 1896 when Ochs took over, true during the World Wars and the Pentagon Papers, and perhaps has never been more true than today when NYT employs 1,700 journalists around the world and pays them an average of >2x the rest of the industry. 5. That said, distribution is critical as well. To build a world-class media organization you must be great at both content AND distribution. * In the old media landscape, NYT built great distribution through its printing and delivery operations, as well as savvy investments like the Index which led to libraries and researchers across the country relying on the Times as the “paper of record”. * However in today’s media landscape, the task of building great distribution falls on the newsroom and journalists themselves. The job is no longer finished once you hit publish -- reporters and editors must own the responsibility of getting their work in front of readers via social media and shareable story elements. Links: * The 2014 NYT Innovation Report: https://archive.org/details/pdfy-59s-4-I2qSvG6MnA/mode/2up * Mine Safety Disclosures’ NYT presentation: https://minesafetydisclosures.com/blog/newyorktimes Carve Outs: Ben: * Titan by Ron Chernow: https://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-Sr-ebook/dp/B000XUDGHG * Iteratively: https://iterative.ly David: * Sabaa Tahir’s Ember in the Ashes series: https://www.amazon.com/Ember-Ashes-3-Book/dp/B074VDZB17 Episode Sources: * http://www.internethistorypodcast.com/2015/10/martin-nisenholtz-on-bringing-the-new-york-times-online/ * https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/99/09/19/daily/092299tifft-book-review.html?module=inline * https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/bday/0312.html * https://archive.org/details/pdfy-59s-4-I2qSvG6MnA/mode/2up * https://archives.cjr.org/cover_story/sulzberger_at_the_barricades.php * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolph_Ochs * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Hays_Sulzberger * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Sumter * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dotdash * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_D._Morgan * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Jones_(publisher) * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Jarvis_Raymond * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iphigene_Ochs_Sulzberger * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_The_New_York_Times_Company#Television_stations * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_New_York_Times_employees * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Nisenholtz * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Building * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Company * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism * https://fintel.io/so/us/nyt * https://media.foxcorporation.com/wp-content/uploads/prod/2019/09/18223214/Fox-Annual-Report-2019_Mid.pdf * https://minesafetydisclosures.com/blog/newyorktimes * https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/08/new-york-times-heirs.html * https://nymag.com/news/features/40647/index4.html * https://nymag.com/news/media/51015/ * https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2021/02/Press-Release-12.27.2020-Final-for-posting.pdf * https://stratechery.com/2020/an-interview-with-buzzfeed-ceo-jonah-peretti/?utm_source=Memberful&utm_campaign=f14650dd37-daily_update_2020_11_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d4c7fece27-f14650dd37-110888309 * https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0058Z4NOQ/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 * https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0316836311/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o04_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 * https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=86354f1b322a4ec2a548e58ac3e83d49 * https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2012/05/11/new-york-times-sells-its-remaining-stake-boston-red-sox/ey4kwU4m6Xn2PYfcblrMcL/story.html * https://www.enwoven.com/collections/view/1277/timeline * https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcript…
3 hr 5 min
The Twenty Minute VC: Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
The Twenty Minute VC: Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
Harry Stebbings
20VC: Klarna Founder Sebastian Siemiatkowski on Scaling Europe's Most Valuable Private Tech Company, How To Motivate and Challenge Your Team Most Effectively & The Biggest Lessons From Working with Mike Moritz
Sebastian Siemiatkowski is the Founder and CEO @ Klarna, the company that makes online shopping simple, allowing you to buy what you need today and pay later. To date, Sebastian has raised over $2.1Bn for the company from the likes of Sequoia, Silver Lake, Blackrock, DST, Northzone, Creandum and even Snoop Dog to name a few. Klarna has been an incredible 16-year journey for Sebastian with it now being the most valuable private technology company in Europe with over 3,500 employees. In Today’s Episode You Will Learn: I. The Importance Of Learning To Learn Fast What is the best way to learn fast? “People talk about it like there's this learning curve, and the best spot is at the place where you're challenged to the precise point where you're almost giving up, but not entirely. That's exactly it. “And I have this amazing swim teacher for my children, her name is Petra, and she's just fantastic. I just love watching her because she has this ability of taking my children in the pool and pushing them to that exact point where they are almost, almost giving up, and they're learning at such a pace. And if I can recreate such an environment in Klarna, if I can create an environment, if I can be part of creating an environment where we put people in that position where they just are exactly at that curve where they are challenged, supported, and kind of at the edge and being given the ability to learn really fast and really discover what it means to have an impact.” Does Sebastian compare his work to other companies’? “I don't think that much about what other people or other companies or other things out there could have done different. And there's pros and cons to that. But the benefits of that is that it speeds up my learning. Because a lot of people – and I've realized that as I manage other people – is that because they're so obsessed with trying to think about what other people could have done differently, and why situations arose, and why it wasn't their responsibility and so forth, they spend a lot of time on that, because we've unfortunately been brought up in some kind of guilt that it's bad to do wrong, and it's bad if it's our fault, and you want to avoid that. “And these psychological constraints, unfortunately, hinder people from developing much faster, because if you go into every situation and say, the only thing that's relevant here is what I could have done differently, what I could have learned from this – if that's the only thing, it's just like, whatever, I accept my responsibilities. What could I have done differently? If you only focus on that, you just learn much faster.” How does Sebastian transform his self-doubt into a positive? “I think self-doubt is not nothing. It's not a bad thing, right? It's a very healthy thing, if it represents you continuously trying to understand, am I doing the right thing? Is this something that I want to do? Am I making the right decisions? So I think it's extremely healthy to do that. I'm not saying it's not painful or tough when you have it. But I think it's a very positive thing. “I'm much more worried when people tell me they have no self-doubt. And then I'm like, uh-oh, because that means that you're not really reflecting on your actions, and you're not learning from them. So I wish I could give you something more comforting than that, but I would actually say enjoy it. Be happy that you have it, and it's gonna make you a better person.” II. Sebastian’s Management Philosophy What does Sebastian believe companies can learn from soccer? “I love the fact that Michael Moritz wrote this book that I still haven't read, so it's kind of funny that I'm referring to it, but he wrote this book about Ferguson, that manager of Manchester United. And I think it's very relevant, because today, the saying is that for people to be motivated at work, they need to have a higher purpose, the company needs to do something good, and so forth. And I am not disputing that, that is very true that it contributes to people's sense of purpose, and so forth. But before you even get to that level, we have to ask ourselves, what is it really that makes people motivated and enjoy themselves? And I think when I think about that, I often look at sports, because why do people love soccer? What's the higher purpose of winning Champions League? People say, oh, there's a massive higher purpose, but not entirely, you're not really making the planet better by winning. Still, people are massively engaged in these things. Why? “Because it's a team effort, there are clear roles, you know exactly what you're supposed to do – I'm supposed to put the ball in that score. And then it's very clear how you win, there is a referee that stops people from cheating. And so there's a lot of things in that environment that makes it motivating, that makes people engaged, and those things are usually lacking in companies.” How do you know when someone is at that crucial point of the learning curve? “The problem with a company is that it's a much more complex environment with a lot of other things going on in parallel in people's lives. And so I have definitely occasionally missed to see that people are beyond that point.” “In Sweden, there's this course called Situation Adopted Management, which basically means that there is no single management technique. You look into the situation, you try to understand it from multiple angles. And then depending on where that individual is, and how you perceive the mental status, and the mood of that individual, and so forth, you try to adapt. Either you coach or you challenge or you instruct or you do different things. There's not a single methodology that will allow you to deal with those situations. But a lot of it is empathy. It's the ability to look at people and read them, and try to understand, and ask them questions, and understand where they are.” III. How Sebastian Manages Complexity At Scale What are Sebastian’s biggest lessons learned from Klarna growing to 3000+ people spread across multiple offices across the world? * It’s the manager’s job to deal with the complexity in a company * It’s not for everyone What role does Sebastian believe a manager should play in a company as it scales? “I think a lot of times as a company grows, what ends up happening is the thing just becomes so complex. So management tries to organize the company in a way that makes sense to them and that is easy to understand for them. But the consequence of that often, unfortunately, is it makes no sense for the person who's actually doing the job. So they lose the purpose. Why am I coming to work? What are we trying to achieve? All of these things get lost. “So what we said is, we have to do the exact opposite. The critical element is that the people who are actually supposed to do something – not the manager – the people actually supposed to do something, if they program or to do a marketing campaign, or whatever they're doing, they need to come to work every day and feel I know exactly why I'm coming, I know how I'm contributing, I know who I'm contributing for, I know what value I'm creating. “And if that thing creates tons of complexity for us, as managers, because the whole system becomes much more complex, then that's what we're getting paid for. That's the one. That's why we're getting a good salary. Because we need to manage that complexity.” What does Sebastian look for in talent? “Keep very close on the recruitment … Especially in a country like Sweden, a country where a typical saying is, alla ska komma med, which means, everyone should come, everyone should join. And it's very nice. And I appreciate that with Swedish culture, I'm not trying to really call it. I think it's fantastic and it's a fantastic society. But as a consequence, it took us some time to conclude something which maybe in the US o…
37 min
The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast
Anthony Pompliano
#503: Marcus Swanepoel on Crypto in Emerging Markets
Marcus Swanepoel is co-founder and CEO of Luno, a leading global cryptocurrency company on a mission to upgrade the world to a better financial system. In this conversation, we discuss emerging markets financial infrastructure, myths of emerging markets, technology strategies vs distribution strategies, regulatory environments, and the DCG acquisition.  ======================= Own crypto in multiple exchanges and wallets? Sync them to CoinStats so you track and manage them from one place. Track 8000+ coins and 300+ exchanges all from the Coinstats platform. Try it for free or go to coinstats.app/pomp and get 40% off your premium subscription. ======================= As one of the largest and oldest Bitcoin exchanges in the world, Kraken is consistently named one of the best places to buy and sell crypto online, thanks to our excellent service, low fees, versatile funding options and rigorous security standards -- but this is only part of the story. We’ve been on the forefront of the blockchain revolution since 2011: http://www.kraken.com ======================= Coinbase Wallets are adding support for .crypto and .zil domains through their partnership with Unstoppable Domains. Unstoppable Domains provides an all-in-one solution for blockchain domains. You can send money using these new domains instead of long Bitcoin wallet addresses, while also storing your domain in Coinbase's collectibles section. Go to unstoppabledomains.com in the dapp browser to register and manage your domains.  =======================
50 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
129 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – March 1st, 2021
We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the Gamestop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:46 - Macro recap from Niels 5:18 - Weekly review of returns 1:04:48 - Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas? 1:10:49 - Performance recap 1:12:25 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks' latest memo 1:14:34 - Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob Carver Subscribe on:
1 hr 16 min
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