The 10-Minute Take
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Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
Available episodes
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2 days ago
What surprised economists in 2023?
The Canadian economy has seen some pivotal shifts in 2023. The year started off with inflation at multi-decade highs, widespread labour shortages, and exceptionally strong consumer spending. The economy was very obviously overheating, and “recession” was more of a buzzword than a reality. Fast-forward to December and the macro data is looking considerably softer, in-line with a mild recession. Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this final episode of the season where they provide a recap of key macro themes that played out this year and tell you what to look out for in the year ahead.
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Nov 23, 2023
What's going on in the Canadian jobs market?
Many indicators these days are pointing to deteriorations in labour market conditions in Canada. Job vacancies are down, job searching time have lengthened. The unemployment rate is still low but has increased by 0.7% over the span of 6 months.
Clouding the outlook for the Canadian jobs market is also the slowdown in consumer demand, especially for discretionary services industries where staffing levels never fully recovered to pre-pandemic to begin with. Outright layoffs to-date are still limited. But record level of household indebtedness these days also means that job losses, when they come, could hurt much more than they used to.
In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan look at the latest Canadian labour market data. They’ll discuss what’s behind the ongoing deterioration, and what to expect moving forward.
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Nov 9, 2023
How has soaring immigration impacted economic growth in Canada?
This past decade, Canada's population growth outpaced India, China, and South and Central America, surpassing the global average. In recent years, Canada's soaring population growth has been entirely fueled by immigration. Canada relies heavily on newcomers to fill jobs left vacant by retiring Baby Boomers. But rising need for housing is adding to pre-existing housing affordability concerns. In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan will unpack the latest federal immigration targets, and discuss how rising immigration has impacted the Canadian economy.
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Oct 25, 2023
How badly are Canadian businesses and consumers wounded by high interest rates?
High inflation and even higher interest rates are turning up the heat for Canadians, making it increasingly challenging for consumers and businesses to pay off existing debt, to spend or to invest.
Indeed, the latest Bank of Canada surveys revealed that almost 60% of consumers had to cut spending in Q3 as they contended with elevated prices and debt-servicing expenses. Echoing that was a slowing in demand reported by businesses, some of whom even flagged an outright decline in sales over the past year. The silver lining? Slower demand is lowering inflation pressures, making it less likely for prices to have to go up as large or as frequently moving forward.
Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan walk you through the latest quarterly Bank of Canada surveys, and unpack what it all means for BoC rate decisions moving forward.
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Oct 12, 2023
How long can the U.S. economy’s outperformance last?
U.S GDP growth continues to soar while activity cools off in Canada. Canadians have tightened their belts, prioritizing the purchase of essentials over discretionary goods. In the U.S., consumers are still spending at a record pace and momentum has yet to fade. But will the U.S. continue to outperform Canada? We don’t think so! Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what’s driving U.S. resilience and why it won’t last.
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Sep 28, 2023
Why are so many workers on strike these days?
High inflation has prompted many workers to push for wage increases, and unions are responding by pressuring employers to pony up. Canada has witnessed a drastic surge in labour stoppages- or strikes- in recent months. There’s still a gap to close - wage increases for unionized workers since early 2020 lag those of non-unionized workers by about 7%. But will this mean sustained pressure on wage growth in the future? On this episode, we are joined by RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia to discuss what’s driving the higher frequency of wage disputes and the importance of taming inflation in order to mitigate these disruptions.
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Sep 14, 2023
How indebted are Canadians and is it a problem?
While Americans are still spending, Canadians are tightening their belts. And the U.S. economy continues to surge while Canada's shows early signs of weakness. Why? Debt levels and faster refinancing! In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain how debt impacts Canadian consumer behaviour, which age cohorts are most impacted--and just how worried we should be about it all. Tune in!
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Aug 31, 2023
When China sneezes, do we all catch a cold?
Western countries are still grappling with decade-high interest rates and elevated inflation. But in China, prices fell on a year over year basis in July. And amid softer consumer demand and a wobbly real estate market, the Chinese central bank has taken the opposite measure to its Western counterparts: cutting key lending rates.
Just how bad could things get in China? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down what's happening and what it might mean for the rest of the world. We explore the slew of data coming out of the country, add some important context on demographic trends before bringing the conversation back to Canada.
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Aug 16, 2023
Are the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes working?
Western central banks don't want to push interest rates higher…but they will if they need to. So how effective have rate hikes actually been? The latest data offers conflicting signals: unemployment is up but inflation remains above target—and consumer spending is still strong. In this episode, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone examine this burning question, assess the likelihood of a “soft landing” (and explain what that is).
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Aug 2, 2023
Will the pandemic pet economy boom last?
If you have a four-legged friend at home, that makes you part of the pet economy!
Today the global pet industry stands at over $250 billion USD and is over twice the size of the global film industry. Part of the boom can be traced back to the pandemic, when households’ time spent at home rose substantially, along with their need for companionship - the US alone added 5 million pets from 2019 to 2022. The outlook for the pet sector however is less positive, as interest rate hikes take purchasing power out of households’ hands, lowering spending on all things including pet-related products and services.
Join RBC Economics Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this week’s episode of the Ten Minute Take, where they take a closer look at the pet economy, how much it’s grown and where it’s headed.
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Jul 19, 2023
Why aren’t rising rates cooling Canadian spending?
The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the 1990s has sent interest rates soaring. Yet Canadians keep on spending. Why and will they keep it up? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain why spending will slow but won’t outright decline.
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Jul 5, 2023
Will my grocery bills ever get lower?
If you’re wondering whether your grocery bills will ever turn out less scary than they are now, we have bad news for you. Food inflation peaked in Canada just this past January. But slowing inflation does not mean lower prices, it merely means prices will climb at a slower rate. What’s causing prices for food to stay high? And moving forward, what are some of the challenges that will continue to put pressure on food prices in the next decade? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this episode of the Ten Minute Take, as they dig into food inflation, and answer questions about your grocery bills.
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Jun 21, 2023
Interest rates are rising again?
The Bank of Canada put the brakes on its record rate hiking cycle in January. Five months later, it sprang back into action—surprising much of Bay Street with a 25 basis point increase. What drove the decision and how much higher will rates rise? More important: how will this impact Canadians? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take.
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Jun 7, 2023
What will this year's summer travel season look like?
Anxious to scratch your travel itch this summer but worried about disruptions and high prices? You’re not alone! In this week’s episode of the 10 Minute Take podcast, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down this year's travel trends for you. We start with what drove the chaos last summer, before moving on to chat about some interesting trends we’ve uncovered. As it turns out, despite resilient demand, Canadians have already made subtle changes to their travel choices to combat rising prices. Finally, we’ll chat about the outlook for travel in an increasingly challenging economic environment, and why we expect things to slow but not crash.
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May 23, 2023
What keeps economists up at night?
“Allow us to introduce ourselves!” In this episode of the 10 Minute Take, get to know RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan. Spend a day in the life of an economist and get our latest hot takes on the macro outlook. What's changed since RBC’s initial recession call last summer? Are signs of weakness emerging? And finally, what do we lie awake thinking about?
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May 10, 2023
Will higher wages arising from labour disputes fire up inflation?
Canada's largest public sector strike in decades just ended—with a deal that includes double-digit wage hikes. Will negotiated wage settlements like these undermine the Bank of Canada’s efforts to cool inflation? RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this and other issues on this episode of the 10 Minute Take.
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Apr 26, 2023
If Canadian home prices are falling, why are rents going through the roof?
Just as house prices in Canada start to cool off, rent costs are heating up. What's driving the increase? Declining affordability comes to mind as high home prices push more would-be buyers into rentals. But are other factors at play? And just how pricey can the rental market get? On this special episode of the Ten Minute Take, Rachel Battaglia from the RBC Economics team talks us through the ups and downs of Canada's home rental market-and what's next.
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Apr 12, 2023
How has market turmoil hit the Canadian economy?
The failures of SVB and other U.S. regional banks sent markets roiling. But what does this mean for the broader economy? Is it all temporary noise or could it leave longer-lasting scars on financial markets? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will take you back to basics, explaining what market volatility is, where they see it and how it will affect economic growth and central bank decisions.
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Mar 31, 2023
Will Budget 2023 derail the Bank of Canada's inflation-fighting campaign?
The federal budget tabled a buffet of new spending measures. But the price tag was hefty: a $40 billion deficit and no sign of a return to balanced books anytime soon. Is Ottawa spending too much? And how does the budget jive with the current economic and monetary policy backdrop? RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone answer these and other burning questions in this episode of the 10-Minute Take.
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Mar 15, 2023
What's up with the long lines at my local coffee shop?
Why are restaurant reservations so hard to find these days? Labour market tightness--it's something we hear on every corner. But what does it really mean? And how is that relevant to you? Join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot, where they share their take on Canadian labour markets and where they're heading.
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Mar 1, 2023
Why are groceries so expensive if inflation is moderating?
Inflation is down, right? So why is my grocery bill still so high? Recent data showed price growth losing steam…yet everything from coffee to chocolate is still expensive. We'll explain why, and what to expect in the months ahead on the first episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot.
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Feb 28, 2023
The Ten-Minute Take (Trailer)
Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
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Jul 22, 2020
Why markets are edging higher in spite of cautious corporates
As we head into a pivotal period of the current earnings season, tech stocks have buoyed key Wall Street indices – Nasdaq, for one, briefly hit another record high earlier this week. But what's on the ticker doesn't necessarily reflect what's on the horizon. The COVID crisis in the U.S. is worsening, while Congress and the White House square off over another aid package. Even c-suite executives are openly sharing their concerns on the economic recovery. How might the rest of earnings season play out? And what do the latest rallies reveal about consumer sentiment? Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, shares what's beneath the latest market movements.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jul 15, 2020
U.S. oil demand sputters as lockdowns tighten
Four months into the COVID pandemic and some Americans have hit lockdown fatigue, if traffic data is any indication. Take Las Vegas, which has seen flight activity increase steadily over the last six weeks. Or Houston, where traffic was up and down leading into the 4th of July holiday. Contrast this with Europe and China, which have emerged from lockdowns and are back to near normal activity. How will mobility patterns shift as U.S. re-openings continue to stop and start? And how will this erratic demand affect oil prices? Michael Tran, RBC Capital Markets' Global Energy Strategist, shares his insights from real-time traffic data during the pandemic.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jul 8, 2020
Canada's fiscal snapshot – massive deficit, record federal debt
The COVID crisis delivered a bigger shock to our economy than most expected. Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020, which pushes the federal debt load past the $1 trillion mark for the first time. With the worst behind us, the focus now is how to sustain the early economic recovery and especially, how to get Canadians back to work. Can Canada take on more debt without further risking our sovereign credit rating? And how will the federal government transition people from the CERB relief program to more productive wage subsidies or other schemes? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, shares his take on Canada's fiscal snapshot.
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Jul 6, 2020
Can U.S. markets stay up while summer shutdowns expand?
The U.S. gained nearly 5 million jobs in June, but that was before the latest COVID-19 outbreaks. Now, state re-opening plans are being put on hold, if not dialed back – with almost certain economic consequences. And yet, markets are partying like it's 2019 – Dow Jones had its best quarter since 1987, Nasdaq hit a record high. But just how far will the Fed go to support the economy? And will markets get a reality check? Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, shares his update on the U.S. economy.
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Jun 29, 2020
How streaming platforms are winning through crisis
If content is king, then streaming platforms are its thrones. And those thrones are getting higher and higher as consumers cut the cord with traditional media providers. Audiences have been seeking refuge in front of their screens and services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max have offered their entertaining alms in-kind. But can these producers continue to satiate the people's growing hunger for quality content, especially with halted production around the world? And who among them can survive the ongoing streaming wars? Kutgun Maral, RBC Capital Markets' Media Analyst, shares his outlook on streaming services.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 26, 2020
How the crisis became prime time for Amazon
While most people have been under lockdowns, The Everything Store has been everywhere. The explosive demand for online shopping and surge in remote work have been boons for both Amazon's core retail offering and AWS, its cloud computing business. But can the company capture and sustain this once-in-a-generation opportunity? And how will ongoing antitrust probes in both the U.S. and E.U. affect its growth? Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets' Internet Analyst, shares his take on Amazon.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 24, 2020
A cloudy outlook for young job seekers
The COVID-19 crisis dealt employees a serious blow, and young people have been hit particularly hard with a nearly 30% unemployment rate. The summer months – crucial for internships, seasonal, and starting careers – might not be much better, as employers may call back their furloughed full-timers before hiring students. How will these setbacks affect this cohort's long-term employment prospects? And how effective have government relief programs actually been? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares the outlook on the youth labour market.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 22, 2020
Canada’s provinces are turning the corner on their road to recovery
Last week, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Quebec gave updates on their economic and fiscal situation. They weren't pretty, but there's been enough of a boost in activity that RBC Economics has adjusted its forecasts. Quebec was the most dramatic example, with the return of 30,000 jobs. Saskatchewan and PEI, meanwhile, also showed how much damage has been done, with declines in government revenues of 8-10%. Robert Hogue, RBC Senior Economist, shares his update on provincial economic recoveries.
Read the Saskatchewan report: https://bit.ly/2Ynowk3
Read the PEI report: https://bit.ly/3dsl1wR
Read the Quebec report: https://bit.ly/2BrLihG
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 19, 2020
Work 2.0: How tech is catalyzing the “remote first" workplace
Practically overnight, legions of office workers shifted to working from home as their employers figure out how to keep them productive. That meant installing (or improving) video conferencing tools, messaging apps and the like – keys to an effective distributed workforce. Now, employers are going a step further to reimagine the first principles of work – from location dependent to location agnostic. Welcome to Work 2.0. What will this mean for employees? And how are software firms capitalizing on this opportunity? Alex Zukin, Software Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, shares how the workplace is transforming.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 17, 2020
A path to 5G for Canadian telcos
Canada's major telecom operators are forging ahead with their plans to build 5G networks, despite government delays on the decision to allow Huawei to bid and the 3,500 Mhz wireless spectrum auction. At least Canada has strong 4G networks, which may tide us over 5G's decade-long build. But as the crisis has revealed, connectivity is key to thriving in the new economy. Could these delays affect Canada's growth? And how might telcos address the digital divide between urban, and rural and remote communities? Drew McReynolds, RBC Capital Markets' Telecommunications and Media Analyst, shares what's ahead for telecom.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 15, 2020
Corporate America's moment of truth on racism
Ongoing protests against racism and violence towards Black communities have hit a boiling point, forcing companies everywhere to re-examine their practices and histories. In addition to questions about police practices and systemic racism across all parts of society, corporate America is being challenged anew on its own record. Black executives hold only 3% of leadership roles in U.S. companies, and only 2% of venture capital dollars goes to African American entrepreneurs. What more can the private sector do? Michael Carter, RBC Capital Markets’ Global Head of Technology Investment Banking and a member of the Washington-based Executive Leadership Council, shares his perspective on how companies can confront racism.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 11, 2020
How renewed COVID fears rattled stock markets
Global stock markets plunged after the U.S. Federal Reserve issued grim economic projections for the rest of 2020 and beyond. Budding investor optimism was quickly replaced with the sobering reality of a weak economy and a jump in COVID cases in some U.S. states. Will we see the Fed intervene again? And what could the stock market rout mean for other asset classes? George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading at RBC Capital Markets, shares his take on what's behind the latest market movements.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 10, 2020
The geopolitics of OPEC+ oil cuts
The global group of oil producing countries, known as OPEC+, left its key weekend meeting fractured. While OPEC+ agreed to extend production cuts through to July, its de facto leader Saudi Arabia said it would not. Neither would fellow Gulf states, and Mexico. Add to this an improving (but fragile) demand picture and it could explain why oil prices have been whipsawing since. How will this play out for the oil majors? And where was President Trump this time around? Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets' Global Head of Commodity Strategy, shares her take on the latest OPEC+ deal.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 8, 2020
Can pro sports stage an epic comeback?
As the PGA Tour starts up again this week, noticeable changes will include tightened safety measures and the absence of on-site fans – par for the course during a pandemic. Some leagues, like Germany's Bundesliga, have experimented with canned cheers and cut-outs in the stands. But can live sports succeed without live fans? And what does that mean for branding and revenue? Mary DePaoli, RBC EVP and Chief Marketing Officer, shares how the business of sports is adapting to crisis.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 5, 2020
To recover, Canadian tourism needs more Canadians
Summer is around the corner, but the forecast for the tourism sector is less-than-sunny. With border and travel restrictions still in place (even between provinces), families wishing to travel have fewer options than before. Maybe take a road trip around your province. Maybe rent out an Airbnb for a month. Whatever Canadians choose, it will be a boon to Canadian tourism, which has historically depended more on domestic than foreign visitors. But will summer road trips be enough to save the sector? Nathan Janzen, RBC Senior Economist, shares his outlook on tourism.
Read the RBC Economics report, For Canadian Tourism, Canadians Matter Most: https://bit.ly/3eQbdhq
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 3, 2020
A U-turn for the auto sector?
In a bygone era, the Sharing Economy had spelled out the death of the personal car – why have your own vehicle when you could just hail an Uber or Lyft? But the auto sector might see some green lights ahead, as people shift from shared transportation towards their own cars. How is COVID changing how (and whether) we drive? And does it put the brakes on trends such as autonomous vehicle technology? Joe Spak, RBC Capital Markets' U.S. Auto Sector Analyst, shares his take on the future of cars.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Jun 1, 2020
How the lockdown may hamper Canada's immigrant-fueled growth
2020 was supposed to be a record year for newcomers to Canada – what the country needed to offset an aging population. But then COVID happened. The lockdown, of course, didn't only restrict the movement of people – it dealt a serious blow to Canada's labour market with knock-on effects to other parts of the economy. How are sectors that depend on immigrants, such as agriculture and healthcare, faring? What are the broader consequences if newcomers stop coming? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares how the drop in immigration levels is impacting our economy.
Read the RBC Economics report, COVID-19 Derails Canadian Immigration: https://bit.ly/376AMYX
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 29, 2020
How COVID is heralding a new era in healthcare
Before the pandemic, the challenges plaguing U.S. healthcare seemed insurmountable. Think onerous regulations, outdated processes, and high prices. But the dark clouds of the crisis are bringing silver linings - less red tape, virtual access to doctors, and long-awaited innovation. How are healthcare providers adapting? And what role will Big Tech play? Kennen MacKay, RBC Capital Markets' Co-Head of Biotechnology Research, shares how changes in the U.S. healthcare sector are here to stay.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 25, 2020
How Maslow's Hierarchy can explain pandemic spending
The start of the COVID crisis might forever be associated with a toilet paper shortage as people went into survival mode and stocked up on staples. Or, in the language of Maslow's Hierarchy, people were just trying to meet their basic physiological and safety needs. But as we move up the pyramid and beyond the crisis, where (and how) we spend our money will be different from before. How will retailers adapt? And what are people buying to reach self-actualization? Irene Nattel, RBC Capital Markets' Consumer Discretionary & Staples Analyst, shares how the crisis is changing consumer trends.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 22, 2020
What's ahead for the loonie
The loonie has defied expectations during the recent rout in oil markets, hitching its wagon to another driver. Move over crude, hello equities. But the road ahead still has bumps, with implications for USD/CAD foreign exchange. How will extended travel restrictions affect cross-border investments? And what could snowbird investors expect from the U.S. Fed? George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading at RBC Capital Markets, joins us with the outlook on the Canadian dollar.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 20, 2020
Why gold is glittering while markets churn
Gold prices have surged during the COVID crisis, driven by low rates and aggressive policy measures to stimulate the economy and investors looking to hedge risks in the market – which explains why gold is staying high even as equities rally. Will the bulls of bullion continue to prevail? And what impact might the eventual recovery have? Chris Louney, RBC Capital Markets' Commodity Strategist, joins us with the outlook on gold.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Quebec's long haul recovery
The COVID-19 crisis has hit Québec especially hard. The province is dealing with the highest number of cases in the country in parallel with one of the worst economic impacts. In fact, more jobs were lost over March and April than the past three recessions put together. But the government is forging ahead with re-opening plans – giving the economy a much needed shot in the arm to start its gradual recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Quebec.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Manitoba, Saskatchewan to see modest recoveries
The economies of two of the Prairie Provinces have been relatively shielded from the COVID-19 damage, at least compared to the rest of the country, given their shorter lockdowns. However, they face headwinds: Manitoba's manufacturing base is vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, whereas Saskatchewan has had to deal with falling oil prices and international trade disputes. Despite that, both provinces will likely see modest recoveries through to next year. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Manitoba and Saskatchewan
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Alberta's slow and protracted recovery
"Double-whammy" might be an understatement for what's happening with Alberta's economy. The twin shocks of oil prices and COVID-19 resulted in job losses in March and April that were worse than the last four recessions combined. But in a positive sign, the government recently put out an ambitious plan to reboot its economy and start a long and winding path to recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Alberta.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Cautious re-opening sets the stage for Ontario's recovery
The COVID-19 crisis pummeled Ontario's economy and forced more than 1 million people out of a job over the past two months. While the province has avoided the worst scenarios, the government isn't taking any chances. It's chosen a methodical and cautious approach to re-opening, meaning its recovery will be gradual as well. What implications will that have for its diverse economy? How might it handle potential global supply chain disruptions? RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Ontario.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Mixed economic outlooks across Atlantic Canada
The Atlantic Provinces faced blows of differing magnitudes to their economies in March and April. Newfoundland and Labrador had the double-whammy of the COVID-19 crisis plus a collapse in oil prices, whereas Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and P.E.I. were impacted similarly to the rest of Canada. Their respective recoveries will likely be just as diverse. With most of the impact hopefully in the past, the provinces can expect some recovery over the second half of this year into 2021. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Atlantic Canada.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 14, 2020
Positive signs for British Columbia's recovery
While B.C.'s forecasted GDP decline of 5% for 2020 is the worst ever in the province, it's better relative to more than -7% across Canada. That's encouraging news, especially as the province forges ahead with re-opening its economy. It allowed non-essential businesses to stay open through March and April, and given the prominence of its tech sector (tech has outperformed throughout the crisis), might feel even bullish about its recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for British Columbia.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 13, 2020
Can business stimulus hasten the "swoosh" recovery?
Hopes for a V-shaped recovery – a short, sharp collapse followed by a bounce-back to pre-crisis activity – have been replaced by expectations of a “swoosh.” That is, a large drop followed by a slow incline. To bend the curve, Canadian policy makers have focused the latest round of relief on business. But how effective can these new measures be when much of the economy remains closed? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, joins us with his outlook for the private sector and a broader recovery.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 11, 2020
What a market recovery can look like
The U.S. equities market has rebounded upwards of 30% from its low in March, driven by plenty of good news and investor optimism. But the road ahead is full of curves and unknowns that could slow the momentum or worse. Looking in the rearview mirror, previous recessions offer a roadmap to guide the recovery journey. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joins us to share lessons from past market downturns.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 8, 2020
China's economic recovery still a long way off, despite official reports
China has touted economic re-opening as the central government's triumph over the COVID-19 virus. But though firms are back to work and factories are up and running, growth hasn't recovered. In fact, privately gathered data suggest China's economy continues to struggle. Can the government do more than reopen factories? And what will it take to get Chinese consumers shopping, travelling, and spending again? Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International, joins us our podcast to explain what the official numbers don't.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 4, 2020
What we can learn from Australia’s approach to the crisis
Australia is flattening the curve of COVID-19 and moving to reopen its economy—slowly. Thanks to a focus on testing and tracing, authorities are gaining confidence to start easing restrictions, but not without some conditions and challenges still ahead. Su-Lin Ong joins us with the details on Australia's COVID exit strategy and economic outlook.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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May 1, 2020
May Day for commercial retail real estate
Commercial rent relief programs could not come soon enough. Small businesses, including retailers, struggling to make rent during the crisis months have been handed a lifeline. But will rent relief programs be enough to bridge them through the crisis? And how are landlords weathering the storm? Rod Hunt, RBC Commercial Banking's Managing Director for Real Estate Lending, joins us with his outlook on the commercial real estate market.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 29, 2020
How oil producers can help resolve their own crisis
North American producers have struggled to match the historic collapse in demand. One option is “shut and swap” – an idea that would see governments buy future production so oil companies can “smooth” their revenue and plan output with more confidence. Do Ottawa and Washington have the political stomach for that kind of risk? Greg Pardy, RBC's Co-Head of Global Energy Research, joins our podcast to share his proposal.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 27, 2020
Why the world’s biggest banks are relatively stable in this crisis – so far
The big U.S. banks have set aside massive loan loss provisions as they prepare for the worst of the COVID crisis. European banks begin to report earnings this week and are expected to do the same. Yet markets have not lost confidence in the world’s biggest banks the way they did in the global financial crisis. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, joins us on the podcast.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 22, 2020
Why ESG is outperforming the market
On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, sustainability may seem like the last thing on a troubled market’s mind. And yet, through the crisis, ESG-focussed investments have outperformed the market, and may be positioned to excel as governments design the biggest stimulus investments in history. Lindsay Patrick, RBC Capital Markets' Head of Sustainable Finance, joins us to discuss how sustainability will shape the post-crisis rebuild.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 20, 2020
What the collapse of crude prices means for the oil market
For the first time, the price of West Texas Intermediate on futures markets plunged into negative territory. It’s the market sending oil producers a message: “We’re awash in oil. Please shut in production.” RBC Capital Markets’ Energy Strategist Michael Tran joins us on the podcast to explain what it means for global markets as well as Canadian production.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 17, 2020
How COVID-19 is affecting investment strategies
The global pandemic has roiled financial markets and changed the game for investors. For the past several weeks, investors have been tested on multiple fronts: lower risk premiums thanks to unprecedented central bank stimulus, disrupted business models, and their own emotions. Stu Kedwell, RBC Global Asset Management’s Co-Head of North American Equities, joins us on the podcast to share his perspective on how investment strategies are changing amid the crisis.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 15, 2020
Quiet resilience in Canada's housing markets
Wednesday saw the release of startling economic numbers, particularly Canada's GDP down 9% for March. That's not the only figure in decline - national home sales are also down 14%. Prices, however, have remained relatively stable as supply dropped in proportion to demand. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins our podcast to discuss the outlook on housing.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 14, 2020
How Big Tech is using a downturn to its advantage
Amazon’s stock surged this week, hitting a new all-time high on Tuesday. The latest spark: Online shopping for basics like groceries is so intense that Amazon announced plans to hire 75,000 more workers, on top of the 100,000 it’s already added in the crisis. And it’s not the only one thriving in the face of dramatic shifts in consumer behaviour. Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets’ Internet analyst, joins our podcast to talk about how the pandemic is leading to enduring changes in the way we shop – and how other Big Tech players like Google and Facebook may fare.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 9, 2020
A downturn like no other
This may be the darkest quarter on record for the Canadian economy. Our consumer-driven economy could make a rebuild even tougher, as we all tend to our wounds and avoid public places for months to come. As GDP declines and unemployment reaches unprecedented levels this quarter, it may be hard to spot silver linings. But come 2021, low interest rates and pent-up demand should get growth headed back to normal. RBC's Chief Economist Craig Wright joins our podcast to discuss his latest macro forecast.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 8, 2020
How Donald Trump's Fed became the world's central bank
Global markets have rarely seen the volatility they endured in March, but in recent days a degree of calm has returned. One big reason is the Fed's quiet role in extending liquidity lifelines to countries around the world, essentially doing for them what central banks everywhere are trying to do for their own economies. Elsa Lignos, RBC's Global Head of FX Strategy, explains how the Fed restored temporary calm – and what lies ahead for markets that are still in the depths of a global pandemic.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 6, 2020
A COVID cure? Watch for wishful thinking
The race is on for vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. Brian Abrahams, RBC’s Co-Head of Biotechnology Research, has some hope based on what he’s seeing but cautions we’re “in the early innings.” A vaccine is probably not realistic before 2021, he warns. And treatments – antivirals and anti-inflammatories, especially – could be months away. The efficacy of treatments could also vary widely across populations, just as we’re seeing with the virus. A magic bullet for curing coronavirus “is probably wishful thinking.” Even so, the availability of treatments, along with other measures, may slow infections, reduce their severity and enable some return to normalcy.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 3, 2020
Health crisis, yes; debt crisis, no
The explosion of fiscal spending plans in recent weeks will lead to more public debt than many thought imaginable just a few weeks ago. The U.S. government will need to borrow $2 to $4 trillion just to get through the crisis. Western Europe perhaps the same. Canada could add another third to public debt levels. But there’s no reason we can’t slowly grow our way out of the debt hole, especially if interest rates remain low. Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist for RBC Global Asset Management, explains how the debt burden of COVID-19 can be managed.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
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Apr 1, 2020
The Eurozone’s next crisis
Good news, the rate of growth of new COVID-19 cases in Europe appears to be slowing. Bad news, the economic cost is just beginning to hit home. With a deep and broad recession underway, the eurozone is again divided over how to stabilize the economy and pay for its recovery. Ideas for joint action, from procurement of protective equipment to unemployment benefits, are coming by the day. But there’s no agreement on how to backstop the enormous debts member countries will incur. RBC’s London-based macro strategist Peter Schaffrik explains how the continent will bridge its newest divide.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 30, 2020
"Market bottoms take time to form"
The past week saw four big up days for equities, and that tells Lori Calvasina that we haven’t seen enough capitulation to signal a new bull run. She believes more lows may lie ahead. As Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Calvasina has been listening to big investors and studying market sentiment – and she’s detecting too much calm given the economic storm. On our latest podcast, she explains how investors should approach the current market and prepare for a stronger 2021.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 27, 2020
Canada’s two-fisted punch
Canada struck back with a two-fisted punch to send monetary and fiscal confidence to the economy. The Bank of Canada not only cut rates; it embraced quantitative easing, to buy bonds and other financial assets from governments that will be borrowing a lot more money. For its part, the federal government came out with Phase 2 of its stimulus package, to help small- and medium-sized businesses stay open and keep their workers on payroll. Will it be enough to prevent a major recession? RBC’s Chief Economist Craig Wright explains.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 26, 2020
King dollar steps back
While stocks have been surging, the US dollar has been on a week-long slide. The correction comes after an extraordinary run-up in the dollar in early March, when investors fled to the greenback’s higher ground and corporates followed, to ensure they were dollar-funded heading into an economic crisis. The prospects now of massive fiscal stimulus and concerted central bank intervention have investors looking anew to the euro, pound and even the Canadian dollar. George Davis, RBC Capital Markets’ currency strategist, explains what lies ahead.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 25, 2020
Can Trump bring peace to the oil war?
Donald Trump is using every diplomatic tool to stop the oil war unleashed by Russia and Saudi Arabia, betting that neither can sustain themselves for long at $25 a barrel. But the Russians may be betting that Trump – or at least U.S. oil producers – will blink first, by scaling back American production and allowing OPEC+ to again drive global markets. Even if the oil powers agree to stabilize markets at a higher price, it may take longer than many are expecting, as the COVID-19 pandemic decimates global growth. Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets Global Head of Commodities Strategy, joins us to explain.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 24, 2020
This is the Backfill
Washington seems to finally have bipartisan agreement for a $2-trillion stimulus package. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says it’s enough to “backfill” the U.S. economy until mid-May. How will the world’s economic engine fare after that? That depends on the success of social distancing. But Porcelli thinks the creatively-driven U.S. economy – from media streaming to food services – could be more resilient than markets have assumed. And if U.S. consumers come out of lockdown and unleash their pent-up demand, the world will notice.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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Mar 23, 2020
Have Markets Found a Bottom?
After one month of declines, 10,000 points off the Dow and a lot of “announcement indigestion,” RBC’s Chief Economist Craig Wright says markets are still searching for a bottom. They’re unsure of how to price so much new risk, all at once. Central banks are also struggling to assert themselves, while governments have not been able to get enough new money into the economy. Even when the trillion-dollar checks are cut, will consumers spend and businesses invest?
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership
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