2021.09.18 國際新聞導讀-亞伯拉罕協議滿週年,美國將繼續協助以色列與阿拉伯國家改善關係,但巴勒斯坦感覺受到阿拉伯兄弟的背叛且造成以色列無動機推進以巴和談、伊朗核武協議到底能否重…
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2021.09.18 國際新聞導讀-亞伯拉罕協議滿週年,美國將繼續協助以色列與阿拉伯國家改善關係,但巴勒斯坦感覺受到阿拉伯兄弟的背叛且造成以色列無動機推進以巴和談、伊朗核武協議到底能否重啟或進入戰爭目前不詳、以色列無人機部隊現況


布林肯:美國將幫助促進以色列與阿拉伯國家的進一步關係

與來自以色列、阿聯酋、巴林和摩洛哥的國務卿安東尼·布林肯 (Antony Blinken) 的同行舉行的活動是拜登政府首次接受亞伯拉罕協議。

通過路透

2021 年 9 月 17 日 18:18




2021 年 7 月 28 日,美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯和印度外交部長蘇布拉馬尼亞姆·賈尚卡爾在印度新德里的賈瓦哈拉爾·尼赫魯·巴萬 (JNB) 舉行聯合新聞發布會


(圖片來源:路透社)

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美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯週五承諾鼓勵更多阿拉伯國家與以色列實現關係正常化,因為他主持了與以色列和阿拉伯同行的虛擬會議,以紀念一系列具有里程碑意義的外交協議一周年。

此次活動 - 與來自以色列、阿拉伯聯合酋長國、巴林和摩洛哥的Blinken 同行舉行- 是拜登政府對所謂的亞伯拉罕協議的最高調擁抱,該協議被廣泛視為共和黨前總統川普的外交成功.

自 1 月上任以來,民主黨總統喬·拜登 (Joe Biden) 一直支持這些交易,高級助手錶示,他們希望更多的阿拉伯國家在數十年的敵意後與以色列實現關係正常化。但迄今為止,政府一直對紀念協議週年的想法保持冷靜。

然而,週五,布林肯讚揚了他們的外交和經濟利益,稱:“本屆政府將繼續在上屆政府成功努力的基礎上繼續推進正常化進程。”

他說,拜登政府將幫助促進以色列與阿聯酋、巴林和摩洛哥以及去年也與以色列取得突破的蘇丹之間日益增長的關係,並將努力深化以色列與埃及和約旦的關係,這兩個國家長期以來——常設和平交易。


2020 年 9 月在白宮舉行的亞伯拉罕協議簽署儀式。(來源:TOM BRENNER/REUTERS)

布林肯表示,華盛頓將鼓勵更多國家效仿。“我們希望擴大和平外交的範圍,”他說。

以色列外交部長 Yair Lapid 表示同意,他說:“這個亞伯拉罕協議俱樂部也對新成員開放。”

去年 9 月,以色列、阿聯酋和巴林的領導人在白宮簽署了這些協議。在拜登在美國大選中擊敗特朗普之後,以色列和蘇丹在接下來的一個月宣布他們將實現關係正常化,摩洛哥於 12 月與以色列建立了外交關係。

巴勒斯坦官員表示,他們感到被阿拉伯兄弟出賣了,因為他們在沒有首先要求在建立巴勒斯坦國方面取得進展的情況下與以色列達成協議。

一些批評人士稱,特朗普在無視巴勒斯坦建國願望的同時,促進了阿拉伯與以色列的和解。

但試圖修復與在特朗普統治下受到嚴重破壞的巴勒斯坦人的關係的布林肯說:“我們都必須建立在這些關係和日益正常化的基礎上,以切實改善巴勒斯坦人的生活,並朝著長期目標取得進展。推進以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之間的談判和平。”

Blinken: US will help foster further Israeli ties with Arab states

The event held with Secretary of State Antony Blinken's counterparts from Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morrocco was the first of the Biden administration's embrace of the Abraham Accords.

By REUTERS

SEPTEMBER 17, 2021 18:18




US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and India's Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hold a joint news conference at Jawaharlal Nehru Bhawan (JNB) in New Delhi, India July 28, 2021


(photo credit: REUTERS)

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged on Friday to encourage more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel as he hosted a virtual meeting with Israeli and Arab counterparts to mark the first anniversary of a set of landmark diplomatic agreements.

The event - held with Blinken’s counterparts from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco - was the Biden administration’s highest-profile embrace of the so-called Abraham Accords, which were widely seen as a diplomatic success for Republican former President Donald Trump.

Democratic President Joe Biden has backed the deals since taking office in January, and senior aides have said they want more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel after decades of enmity. But the administration until now had been cool to the idea of commemorating the anniversary of the accords.

On Friday, however, Blinken hailed their diplomatic and economic benefits, saying: “This administration will continue to build on the successful efforts of the last administration to keep normalization marching forward.”

He said the Biden administration would help foster Israel’s growing ties with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco - as well as Sudan, which also reached a breakthrough with Israel last year – and would work to deepen Israel’s relationships with Egypt and Jordan, which have long-standing peace deals.


THE SIGNING CEREMONY for the Abraham Accords at the White House in September 2020. (credit: TOM BRENNER/REUTERS)

And Blinken said Washington would encourage more countries to follow their lead. “We want to widen the circle of peaceful diplomacy,” he said.

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid agreed, saying: “This Abraham Accords club is open to new members as well.”

The leaders of Israel, the UAE and Bahrain signed the accords at the White House last September. Israel and Sudan announced in the following month that they would normalize relations, and Morocco established diplomatic ties with Israel in December, after Biden defeated Trump in the U.S. election.

Palestinian officials said they felt betrayed by their Arab brethren for reaching deals with Israel without first demanding progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state.

Some critics said Trump had promoted Arab rapprochement with Israel while ignoring Palestinian aspirations for statehood.

But Blinken, who has sought to repair ties with the Palestinians badly damaged under Trump, said: “We all must build on these relationships and growing normalization to make tangible improvements in the lives of Palestinians, and to make progress toward the long-standing goal of advancing negotiated peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”

塞西在會見巴林國王后呼籲以巴會談

埃及正試圖促成以色列和哈馬斯之間的間接談判,這將導致對加沙的永久停火。

作者:托瓦·拉扎羅夫

2021 年 9 月 17 日 15:46




阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·西西


(照片來源:瓦西里·費多森科/路透社)

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埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西呼籲恢復以巴會談,在本週與巴林國王哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法會面後,該會談自 2014 年以來一直被凍結。

“雙方確認了努力……加強國際努力的重要性,以打破和平進程中的僵局,恢復談判,以根據國際合法性決議解決巴勒斯坦危機,”塞西辦公室在一份關於週三會議的聲明中說。沙姆沙伊赫。

塞西的辦公室說:“巴林國王稱讚埃及最近在最高級別的文件中所做的努力,為鞏固以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之間的停火所做的不懈努力,以及重建加沙地帶的倡議。”

埃及正試圖促成以色列和哈馬斯之間的間接談判,這將導致對加沙的永久停火。

塞西還一直在與有關參與者舉行會談,討論需要恢復以巴會談,以根據 1967 年之前的路線解決衝突。


2021 年 9 月 2 日,埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西 (C) 與巴勒斯坦總統馬哈茂德·阿巴斯 (R) 和約旦國王阿卜杜拉二世在聯合國大會之前在埃及開羅伊蒂哈迪亞總統府會晤前合影(圖片來源:路透社)

9月初,塞西會見了約旦國王阿卜杜拉和巴勒斯坦民族權力機構主席馬哈茂德·阿巴斯。在那次會議上,阿巴斯強調了由四方而不是美國促成和平進程的重要性,美國負責這一進程已超過四十年。四方由聯合國、歐盟、俄羅斯和美國組成。

本週早些時候,塞西會見了以色列總理納夫塔利·貝內特,並談到了會談的必要性。

塞西辦公室表示,在與貝內特會晤時,總統確認“埃及支持在兩國解決方案基礎上為實現中東全面和平所做的一切努力”。他補充說,這“有助於加強該地區所有人民的安全和實現繁榮。”

會後,貝內特告訴以色列媒體,他反對建立巴勒斯坦國,也沒有興趣會見阿巴斯。

美國總統喬拜登曾談到兩國解決衝突的重要性,但並未提出任何實現巴勒斯坦建國的計劃。

週三,美國國務院發言人內德·普萊斯表示,美國此時並未“明確”呼籲進行以巴會談。

Sisi calls for Israeli-Palestinian talks after meeting Bahraini King

Egypt is attempting to broker indirect talks between Israel and Hamas that would lead to a permanent ceasefire over Gaza.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF

SEPTEMBER 17, 2021 15:46




ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI


(photo credit: VASILY FEDOSENKO / REUTERS)

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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for the resumption of Israel-Palestinian talks, which have been frozen since 2014 after he met this week with Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa.

"The two sides confirmed the importance of working .. to intensify international efforts to break the stalemate in the peace process and resume negotiations so as to resolve the Palestinian crisis based on international legitimacy resolutions," Sisi's office said in a statement about Wednesday's meeting at Sharm el-Sheikh.

"The Bahraini King lauded Egypt’s recent endeavors in this file at the highest level, its tireless efforts to firm up the ceasefire between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and its initiative for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip," Sisi's office said.

Egypt is attempting to broker indirect talks between Israel and Hamas that would lead to a permanent ceasefire over Gaza.

Sisi has also been holding talks with relevant players on the need to resume Israeli-Palestinian talks toward a two-state resolution to the conflict based on the pre-1967 lines.


Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) poses with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (R) and Jordan's King Abdullah II before their meeting ahead of the UN general assembly at the Ittihadiya presidential palace in Cairo, Egypt, September 2, 2021 (credit: REUTERS)

At the start of September, Sisi met with Jordan's King Abdullah and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. At that meeting, Abbas stressed the importance of a peace process brokered by the Quartet rather than the United States, which has been in charge of the process for over four decades. The Quartet is composed of the United Nations, the European Union, Russia, and the US.

Earlier this week Sisi met with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and spoke about the need for talks.

Sisi office said that at the meeting with Bennett the president confirmed that "Egypt supports all efforts exerted to achieve comprehensive peace in the Middle East, based on the two-state solution." He added that this "contributes to reinforcing security and achieving prosperity for all peoples of the region."

After the meeting, Bennett told Israeli media that he is opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state and has no interest in meeting Abbas.

US President Joe Biden has spoken of the importance of a two-state resolution to the conflict but has not put forward any plan to achieve Palestinian statehood.

On Wednesday State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the US has not "explicitly" called for Israeli-Palestinian talks at this time.

美國為以色列和巴勒斯坦人挽救兩國解決方案的舉措

美國承認巴勒斯坦國是可以塑造未來的一步,並可能為休眠的兩國解決方案注入急需的生命。

作者:格松巴斯金

2021 年 9 月 17 日 11:55




2013 年,一名巴勒斯坦抗議者舉著標語牌,標語牌描繪了南非前總統納爾遜·曼德拉 (Nelson Mandela) 在反對約旦河西岸 Bil'in 村附近定居點的示威活動,背景是安全屏障。


(信息來源:MOHAMAD TOROKMAN /路透社)

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兩國解決方案一直是猶太復國主義解決方案,讓以色列保持自己作為猶太民族國家的地位。如果沒有兩國解決方案,那麼就沒有可以接受的猶太復國主義解決方案,它使以色列能夠繼續統治數百萬缺乏充分政治權利以及不承認以色列的巴勒斯坦公民是完全平等的公民的巴勒斯坦人。

我們已經生活了幾十年的這一現實顯然是一種新的種族隔離形式,不應為世界上任何人或以色列任何人所接受。一個國家的解決方案,無論是聯邦國家還是邦聯國家,都要求以色列去錫安化,成為所有公民的國家。

如果我們繼續遵循以色列新政府的路線和計劃,這可能會發生這種情況,這在短期內對巴勒斯坦人比以前的內塔尼亞胡政府更積極,但在尋找更長的時間時沒有太大不同期限解決方案。

貝內特總理已經明確表示,以色列政府不會吞併西岸或西岸的部分地區,但也不會允許建立巴勒斯坦國。本屆政府繼續資助定居點擴建。以色列基礎設施繼續以前所未有的速度在西岸擴張。

以色列新政府沒有採取任何措施來遏制以色列定居者對巴勒斯坦人的暴力行為。幾乎每週都有巴勒斯坦人被以色列士兵殺害,而以色列政治中心或以色列公眾幾乎沒有註意到這一點。

貝內特繼續向哈馬斯領導人和加沙人民發出威脅,稱他們對以色列進行任何形式的抗議——無論是在邊境示威還是對士兵或平民使用武器。貝內特從未就以色列與約旦河西岸超過 300 萬巴勒斯坦人之間的長期關係提出任何一致的以色列戰略。

國防部長本尼·甘茨最近與巴勒斯坦總統馬哈茂德·阿巴斯的會晤承諾以色列將出台旨在改善西岸巴勒斯坦人經濟狀況和加強巴勒斯坦權力機構的新政策。甘茨還宣布,以色列在巴勒斯坦建國問題上沒有長期戰略。


納夫塔利·貝內特總理在 2021 年 8 月的每週內閣會議上與外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德交談(圖片來源:RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

本應在不到兩年的時間內接替貝內特擔任總理的外長亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 週日概述了以色列與加沙關係的“新願景”,稱以色列“必須朝著加沙經濟發展的多年進程邁進”。安全回歸”,並進一步表示,此舉的目的是“在邊界兩側創造穩定”。拉皮德證實了政府的立場,“這裡提出的解決方案並不涉及兩國解決方案,但我對此事的看法是眾所周知的:以色列需要採取行動加強巴勒斯坦權力機構並與它進行有目的的談判。實現兩國解決方案。”

拉皮德在政府中並不孤單,還有梅雷茨和工黨支持兩國解決方案,而吉迪恩·薩爾的蒂克瓦·哈達沙(新希望)完全拒絕建立巴勒斯坦國,財政部長阿維格多·利伯曼表示在不同時期就這個問題發表了不同的意見。我認為我們不確定 Mansour Abbas 和 [阿拉伯聯合名單] Ra'am Party 在建立巴勒斯坦國方面的立場,或者更多,他們對以色列成為民主民族國家的立場的猶太人,因為他們並沒有真正處理更廣泛的以巴衝突。

國際社會的絕大多數,包括與以色列和解的所有以色列的直接鄰國——約旦、埃及、阿聯酋、巴林、蘇丹和摩洛哥——的立場是支持兩國解決方案。整個歐洲都支持兩國解決方案,北美和南美大部分地區、俄羅斯和中國以及亞洲大部分地區也是如此。所有這些國家尚未接受該解決方案的可行性減弱。

私下里,一些歐洲國家已經開始討論兩國解決方案的替代方案。大多數年輕一代的巴勒斯坦人和幾乎所有巴勒斯坦和世界各地的巴勒斯坦智囊團都在討論兩國解決方案的替代方案。以色列的一些嚴肅的智囊團開始這樣做,越來越多的以色列民間社會組織開始尋找兩國解決方案的替代方案。

很明顯,拜登政府將巴以沖突放在了他們議程的低位。美國從阿富汗撤軍後,拜登政府將重點放在應對經濟和疫情上,幾乎無法想像美國會推出新的巴以和平倡議。甚至我也會建議他們不要發起一項新的美國和平倡議。

因此,如果國際社會、美國和左翼的以色列猶太復國主義者真的有興趣在為時已晚(而且可能已經太晚)之前挽救兩國解決方案,那麼問題是可以做些什麼才能使有能力震撼以色列和巴勒斯坦這裡的政治體係並採取行動來拯救它嗎?我的回答是美國承認巴勒斯坦國。

美國和世界承認以色列,承認兩國方案是解決衝突的最佳方案——那麼為什麼不採取下一步行動呢?承認巴勒斯坦國可能包括在東耶路撒冷開設美國駐巴勒斯坦大使館——在曾經是美國駐東耶路撒冷領事館的大樓裡。美國還可以宣布,巴勒斯坦駐華盛頓辦事處應被承認為巴勒斯坦國駐美國大使館。

美國的這一舉措可能導致其他國家,如約旦、埃及、阿聯酋、巴林、摩洛哥和其他不在該地區的國家宣布他們也願意在西耶路撒冷開設駐以色列國大使館和大使館。前往東耶路撒冷的巴勒斯坦。所有這一切都可以在美國不領導新的和平倡議或重新啟動談判的情況下完成。兩國之間關於邊界、安全、耶路撒冷的未來和其他問題的談判可以稍後進行。美國承認巴勒斯坦是可以塑造未來的一步,並可能為休眠的兩國解決方案注入急需的生命。

作者是一位政治和社會企業家,他畢生致力於以色列國以及以色列與其鄰國之間的和平。他現在正在執導《聖地投資債券》。

A US step to save the two-state solution for Israel and Palestinians

US recognition of a Palestinian state is a step that could shape the future and possibly breathe much-needed life into the dormant two-state solution.

By GERSHON BASKIN

SEPTEMBER 17, 2021 11:55




THE SECURITY BARRIER is seen in the background as a Palestinian protester walks with a placard depicting former South African president Nelson Mandela during a demonstration against settlements near the West Bank village of Bil’in in 2013.


(photo credit: MOHAMAD TOROKMAN/REUTERS)

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The two-state solution has always been the Zionist solution for Israel to maintain itself as the Jewish nation-state. If there is no two-state solution, then there is no Zionist solution that is acceptable and enables Israel to continue to rule over millions of Palestinians devoid of full political rights as well as not recognizing Israel’s Palestinian citizens as full and equal citizens.

That reality, which we have been living for decades, is clearly a new form of apartheid and should not be acceptable to anyone in the world or to anyone in Israel. A one-state solution, be it a federal state or a confederate state requires Israel to de-Zionize itself to become the state of all of its citizens.

That is what is likely to happen if we continue to follow the line and program of the new Israeli government, which is more positive in the short-term towards the Palestinians than the previous Netanyahu governments, but not much different when it comes to finding longer term solutions.

Prime Minister Bennett has made it quite clear that the Israeli government will not annex the West Bank or parts of the West Bank but will also not allow for the creation of a Palestinian State. This government is continuing to fund settlement expansion. Israeli infrastructure continues to expand in the West Bank at an unprecedented pace.

The new Israeli government has done nothing to rein in Israeli settler violence against Palestinians. Palestinians are still being killed by Israeli soldiers almost every week with virtually no notice of such by the Israeli political center or the Israeli public.

Bennett continues to issue threats to the Hamas leadership and to the people in Gaza regarding any form of protest that they engage in against Israel – whether demonstrations at the border or the use of arms against soldiers or civilians. Bennett has never outlined any coherent Israeli strategy regarding the long-term relations between Israel and the more than 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank.

DEFENSE MINISTER Benny Gantz’s recent meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas promised new Israeli policies aimed at improving the economic conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank and strengthening the Palestinian Authority. Gantz also declared that there is not a long-term Israeli strategy on the issue of Palestinian statehood.


Prime Minister Naftali Bennett chats with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid at the weekly cabinet meeting, August 2021 (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

Foreign Minister Yair Lapid who is supposed to replace Bennett as Prime Minister in less than two years, outlined on Sunday a “new vision” for Israel’s relations with Gaza, saying that Israel “must move toward a multi-year process in Gaza of economy in return for security” and further said that the aim of such a move is “to create stability on both sides of the border.” Lapid confirmed the position of the government that “the solution presented here doesn’t address the two-state solution, but my opinion on the matter is well known: Israel needs to act to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and to negotiate with it with an aim of achieving a two-state solution.”

Lapid is not alone in the government, there is also Meretz and the Labor Party that support a two-state solution while Tikva Hadasha (New Hope) of Gideon Sa’ar fully rejects the creation of a Palestinian state and Minister of Finance Avigdor Liberman has voiced different opinions on the issue at different times. I don’t think we know for sure what the position of Mansour Abbas and the [United Arab List] Ra’am Party is on the creation of a Palestinian state, or more, what their position is on Israel being the democratic nation-state of the Jewish people since they don’t really deal with the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The position of the vast majority of the international community, including all of Israel’s direct neighbors who have made peace with Israel – Jordan, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco – is in support of the two states solution. All of Europe supports the two-state solution, so does most of North and South America, along with Russia and China and most of Asia as well. All of those countries have not yet come to terms with the fading viability of that solution.

In private, some of the European countries have begun discussing alternatives to the two-state solution. Most the young generation of Palestinians and almost every Palestinian think-tank in Palestine and around the world are discussing alternatives to the two-state solution. A few serious think-tanks in Israel are beginning to do that, and a growing number of civil society organizations in Israel are beginning to look at alternatives to the two-state solution.

IT IS clear that the Biden administration has placed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict very low on their agenda. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with the Biden Administration’s focus on dealing with the economy and the pandemic, it is almost impossible to imagine a new US Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative. Even I would advise them not to launch a new American peace initiative.

So, if the international community, the US and Israeli Zionists on the left are truly interested in saving the two-state solution before it is too late (and it may already be too late), the question is what can be done that has the power to shock the political systems here in Israel and Palestine into action to save it? My answer is American recognition of the State of Palestine.

The US and the world recognize Israel and recognize the two-state solution as the best solution to the conflict – so why not take the next step? Recognizing the State of Palestine could include the opening of an American Embassy to Palestine in East Jerusalem – in the building that used to hold the US Consulate in East Jerusalem. The US could also announce that the Palestinian office in Washington should be recognized as the Embassy of the State of Palestine to the United States.

This US step could lead to other countries, such as Jordan, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and other countries not in the region to declare that they too are willing to open an Embassy to the State of Israel in West Jerusalem and an Embassy to Palestine in East Jerusalem. All of this can be done without the US leading a new peace initiative or relaunching negotiations. Negotiations between the two states on borders, security, the future of Jerusalem and other issues can be conducted at a later time. US recognition of Palestine is a step that could shape the future and possibly breathe much needed life in to the dormant two-state solution.

The writer is a political and social entrepreneur who has dedicated his life to the State of Israel and to peace between Israel and her neighbors. He is now directing The Holy Land Investment Bond.

貝內特,是時候凍結西岸定居點了 - 意見

數以百萬計的巴勒斯坦人不能永遠受到壓制,讓他們成為公民的壓力會越來越大。

作者:丹佩里

2021 年 9 月 17 日 13:59




2020 年 6 月 11 日以色列亞基爾定居點的景色。


(照片來源:SRAYA DIAMANT/FLASH90)

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由於納夫塔利·貝內特 (Naftali Bennett),現任政府無法與巴勒斯坦人謀求和平。總理是右翼分子,他的六個席位對於罷免本傑明·內塔尼亞胡至關重要。但是貝內特能改變主意嗎?他可能是在假裝嗎?這能被罰款嗎?我說也許在所有方面。

由於放棄內塔尼亞胡的民族主義陣營而失去了許多選民——為了獲得最豐厚的回報——貝內特處於罕見的情況,幾乎沒有什麼可失去的。與此同時,他處於一個老練的右翼人士熟悉的位置,幾乎可以肯定他太聰明了,無法理解以色列在約旦河西岸設防的問題。這以各種方式適用於齊皮·利夫尼、埃胡德·奧爾默特、阿里爾·沙龍甚至內塔尼亞胡(在他成為伏地魔之前的一小段時間)。

人們認識到,約旦河西岸的以色列只有 60% 的猶太人,而加沙已經是多數阿拉伯人,這對猶太復國主義不利。數以百萬計的巴勒斯坦人不能永遠受到壓制,讓他們成為公民的壓力會越來越大。

對一些以色列人來說,這不是問題,因為上帝會修復它;和他們沒什麼好討論的,但貝內特卻不是這樣,儘管他戴著微型圓頂小帽。

對其他人來說,這沒有問題,因為在需要的時候,巴勒斯坦人會\神奇地離開;作為一個思考和說美國話的聰明的商人,可以肯定地說 Bennett 也不在這個人群中。

那麼,當貝內特在平靜的 Ra'anana 睡覺時到底在想什麼,遠離明顯命運的狂熱定居者幻想?

從他對此事的少數陳述(除了關於“價值觀”的模糊斷言)來看,他認為 1990 年代巴勒斯坦權力機構的建立已經實現了分治。許多聰明的右翼人士認為這一點(右翼強烈反對建立巴勒斯坦權力機構,但他們似乎普遍不為虛偽所困擾)。但問題是以色列和巴勒斯坦人實際上仍然交織在一起。


2021 年 9 月,納夫塔利·貝內特總理訪問以色列國防軍的猶太新年(來源:AMOS BEN-GERSHOM/GPO)

儘管巴勒斯坦領導人樂於假裝不以為然,但他們的自治政府的職能基本上是市政的;以色列法院可以選擇審判巴勒斯坦人;以色列安全部隊可以進入巴勒斯坦權力機構地區,包括“巴勒斯坦權力機構完全控制”的 A 區,而不受懲罰;以色列可以讓補給進入,也可以不讓補給;如果您是在自治島以外需要醫療的巴勒斯坦人,您需要以色列同意;以色列控制整個西岸的陸、海、空所有出入境。

簡而言之,仍然最終統治巴勒斯坦人的政府在耶路撒冷。數以百萬計的巴勒斯坦人無法投票支持該政府,但被告知必須接受其行動,因為它是“民主選舉產生的”。這是一場鬧劇,不可能讓貝內特看到它。

自治地圖看起來也不是任何遠程可持續的東西。巴勒斯坦權力機構掌管著數十個不連續的領土島嶼。以色列控制著它們之間的通行以及該領土其他地方的建築權和自然資源。在某一點上,碎片化變得不可行,我想可以讓 Bennett 看到這一點。

與此同時,在西岸的大部分地區,即聯合控制區 B 和以色列控制區 C,定居者和巴勒斯坦人混在一起,定居者以各種方式明顯受到青睞(美聯社幾年前做過一項研究,當時我是開羅的區域編輯)。巴勒斯坦人定期被可以理解的緊張的士兵殺害(並且經常發動襲擊)。在這種情況下,種族隔離的主張——雖然從歷史上看是不准確的——並非完全荒謬,它們將繼續並增長。Bennett 永遠不會承認這一點,但他知道這一點,我敢肯定。

有些人會說沒有什麼重要,因為和平協議是不可能的,因為巴勒斯坦人是不合理的——特別是他們堅持所謂的回歸權,這在過去破壞以色列的幾個影響深遠的和平提議方面發揮了關鍵作用。 . 這是真的。

但是,在尋求變革機會(也許是單方面)的同時維持現狀與繼續向該領土注入定居者之間存在差異。每一天過去和增加定居者都使以色列更接近不歸路,屆時它將發現自己面臨巴勒斯坦對吞併和公民權利的要求,這將反映其控制的現實。它會結束猶太復國主義,因此以色列會反抗,但不要搞錯:這樣就存在製裁和全球賤民地位。

是否有希望 Bennett 不僅能理解這一切,還能採取行動?我注意到歷史學家米卡·古德曼 (Micah Goodman) 為他提供了建議,他在他的《第 67 條軍規》一書中做了標記。那本書認為左派和右派都是正確的,因為佔領對以色列不利,但目前無法結束,所以必須管理衝突。

這與凍結定居點並無矛盾(除了一些緊鄰 1949 年停戰線的定居點)。

如果貝內特同意這一點,結果將是該地區和世界(以及他的聯盟)立即表達善意。他會代表某些東西,他可能會成為剩下的務實右翼的真正領袖。對於尋求結束佔領的以色列人來說,這也將是一個信號,即他加入中左翼不僅僅是成為總理的絕妙策略。

壓力將轉移到巴勒斯坦人以實物回應,也許在 2023 年夏天,溫和派亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 接任總理的最後期限之前。

巴勒斯坦人會怎麼做?他們可能會就數百萬巴勒斯坦難民的後裔有“權利”返回以色列祖傳地區的概念進行誠實的內部討論。這需要勇氣,但他們可能知道這個想法阻礙了他們,而阿拉伯世界的遜尼派部分正在對他們的事業失去耐心。

隨著殖民時代的結束,數以千萬計的人在第二次世界大戰及其後果中流離失所,部分原因是為了建立可行的民族國家。德國人不會返回蘇台德地區(儘管他們可以在歐盟的領導下),而巴基斯坦人沒有任何“權利”返回孟買。土耳其人和希臘人,數千萬在紅色中國和蘇聯的國際流離失所者——他們的後代沒有一個帶著生鏽的鑰匙四處奔波,要求“權利”返回。

就以色列/巴勒斯坦而言,回歸將反對可能迫使以色列剝離戰略領土的人口邏輯。巴勒斯坦人認為以色列應該接受這一原則,因為很少有人會真正到達。那太瘋狂了。最多只能說賠償。

這就是我們在貝內特的兩年裡可能希望的:以色列承認在西岸大部分地區定居是錯誤的,而巴勒斯坦人承認回歸是無稽之談。在那之後,可能會有友好離婚的機會。

作者是美聯社前駐開羅的中東編輯和駐倫敦的歐洲/非洲編輯,以及耶路撒冷外國新聞協會的前任主席。他是總部位於紐約的通信公司 Thunder11 的管理合夥人。在 Twitter 上關注他:@perry_dan。

Bennett, it is time to freeze West Bank settlements - Opinion

The millions of Palestinians cannot forever be suppressed, and pressure to make them citizens will grow.

By DAN PERRY

SEPTEMBER 17, 2021 13:59




View of the Israeli settlement of Yakir on June 11, 2020.


(photo credit: SRAYA DIAMANT/FLASH90)

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The current government cannot pursue peace with the Palestinians because of Naftali Bennett. The prime minister is a right-winger, and his six seats were critical to removing Benjamin Netanyahu. But could Bennett change his mind? Might he be pretending? Can this be finessed? I say maybe on all counts.

Having lost many of his voters by abandoning Netanyahu’s nationalist bloc – for the handsomest reward – Bennett is in the rare situation of having little to lose. Meanwhile, he is in the familiar position of a sophisticated right-winger who is almost certainly too intelligent to not understand the problem with Israel’s entrenchment in the West Bank. This applied in various ways to Tzipi Livni, Ehud Olmert, Ariel Sharon and even Netanyahu (for a brief moment, before he became Voldemort).

The realization is that Israel with the West Bank is barely 60% Jewish, and with Gaza already is majority-Arab, and that’s not good for Zionism. The millions of Palestinians cannot forever be suppressed, and pressure to make them citizens will grow.

To some Israelis this is no problem because God will fix it; there is not much to discuss with them, but Bennett is not this way, despite his microscopic yarmulke.

To others this is no problem because when need be the Palestinians will \magically depart; as a clever businessman who thinks and speaks American, it’s safe to say Bennett is not in this crowd either.

So what on earth is Bennett thinking when he goes to bed in placid Ra’anana, far away from the feverish settler reveries of manifest destiny?

Judging by his few statements on the matter (other than vague assertions about “values”), he thinks partition has already been achieved by the 1990s establishment of the Palestinian Authority. Many intelligent right-wingers think this (the right bitterly opposed the creation of the Palestinian Authority, but they seem generally untroubled by the hypocrisy). But the problem is that Israel and the Palestinians in fact remain intertwined.


Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visits an IDF post for Rosh Hashanah, September 2021 (credit: AMOS BEN-GERSHOM/GPO)

Though Palestinian leaders are happy to strut about pretending otherwise, their autonomy government’s functions are essentially municipal; Israeli courts can try Palestinians when they so choose; Israeli security forces can enter the PA areas, including “full PA control” Areas A, with impunity; Israel can let supplies in, or not; if you are a Palestinian in need of medical care outside your autonomy island, you need Israel to agree; Israel controls all entry and exit from the overall West Bank, by land, sea and air.

In short, the government that still ultimately governs the Palestinians is in Jerusalem. By the millions these Palestinians cannot vote for that government yet are told its actions must be accepted, because it was “democratically elected.” This is a farce, and it is highly unlikely that Bennett cannot be made to see it.


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Nor does the autonomy map look like anything even remotely sustainable. The PA presides over dozens of non-contiguous islands of territory. Israel controls passage between them and building rights and natural resources in the rest of the territory. There is a point where fragmentation becomes unworkable and I imagine Bennett can be made to see this.

Meanwhile, in most of the West Bank, which is joint-control Areas B and Israeli-controlled Area C, settlers and Palestinians are mixed together with the settlers clearly favored in a variety of ways (the AP did a study several years ago, when I was the Cairo-based regional editor). Palestinians are periodically killed by the understandably jittery soldiers (and often stage attacks). Under these circumstances claims of apartheid are – while historically inaccurate – not completely ridiculous, and they will continue and grow. Bennett could never be made to admit this, but he knows it, I am sure.

Some will say that nothing matters because a peace deal is impossible because the Palestinians are unreasonable – especially as evidenced in their insistence on the so-called Right of Return, which played a key role in scuttling several far-reaching Israeli peace offers in the past. And this is true.

But there is a difference between maintaining the status quo while seeking opportunities (perhaps unilateral) for change – and continuing to pour settlers into the territory. Every day that passes and settlers are added brings Israel closer to the point of no return at which it will find itself facing Palestinian demands for annexation and citizens’ rights that will reflect the reality of its control. It would end Zionism and so Israel will resist, but make no mistake: that way lie sanctions and global pariah status.

Is there hope that Bennett might not only understand all this but act? I note that he is advised by historian Micah Goodman, who made a mark with his book Catch 67. That book argued that both the Left and Right are correct in that the occupation is bad for Israel but also it cannot currently be ended, and so the conflict must be managed.

That is not inconsistent with freezing the settlements (with the possible exception of a few that are directly next to the 1949 armistice lines).

If Bennett were to agree to this, the result would be an instant outpouring of good will from the region and the world (and also his coalition). He would stand for something, and he might become a real leader to the remaining pragmatic right-wingers. It would also be a signal to Israelis who seek to end the occupation that his joining with the center-left was not just a stunning gambit to become prime minister.

The pressure would shift to the Palestinians to respond in kind, perhaps by the summer 2023 deadline for the moderate Yair Lapid to take over as prime minister.

What might the Palestinians do? They might have an honest internal discussion on the notion that millions of descendants of Palestinian refugees have a “right” to return to ancestral areas in Israel. It would take courage, but they probably know this idea is standing in their way, and the Sunni part of the Arab world is losing patience with their cause.

Tens of millions of people were dislocated in World War II and its aftermath as the colonial era ended, in part in a movement to create viable nation-states. Germans are not returning to the Sudetenland (though they could under the EU) and Pakistanis do not have any “right” to return to Mumbai. Turks and Greeks, internationally displaced people by the tens of millions in Red China and the Soviet Union – none of their descendants are running around with rusty keys demanding “rights” to return.

In the case of Israel/Palestine, a return would oppose the very demographic logic that might compel Israel to divest itself of strategic territory. Palestinians have argued Israel should accept the principle since few would actually arrive; that would be insane. One can speak of compensation at the most.

That’s what we might hope for in the two years of Bennett: Israel admitting settlement in most parts of the West Bank is wrong, and Palestinians admitting that the return is nonsense. After that, there may be chances for an amicable divorce.

The writer is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, and a former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem. He is the managing partner of the New York-based communications firm Thunder11. Follow him on Twitter: @perry_dan.

社交媒體助長巴以沖突兩極分化

紐約大學斯特恩商業與人權中心的一份報告指出,在 Facebook、TikTok、Twitter、WhatsApp 和 Youtube 上分享了有關巴以沖突雙方的錯誤信息。

通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF

2021 年 9 月 17 日 09:35




2021 年 5 月 15 日,在加拿大安大略省多倫多市政廳前,警察排隊將支持巴勒斯坦的抗議者與一小群以色列支持者分開。


(圖片來源:CHRIS HELGREN/REUTERS)

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紐約大學斯特恩商業與人權中心週一表示,社交媒體正在直接推動和助長在以巴衝突等政治問題上的意見兩極分化。

紐約大學斯特恩分校的 Paul M. Barrett、Justin Hendrix 和 J. Grant Sims 撰寫的一份題為“助長火勢:社交媒體如何加劇美國政治兩極分化——以及對此可以做些什麼”的報告發現並分析了幾個政治兩極分化的例子受到美國和國際社交媒體使用的推動。

報告指出,衝突雙方在 Facebook、TikTok、Twitter、WhatsApp 和 Youtube 上分享了以視頻、圖像和文本形式存在的錯誤信息。

例如,據稱通過受歡迎的以色列 WhatsApp 群組分享的一條消息稱,“巴勒斯坦人來了”,父母應該“保護他們的孩子”免受接近的巴勒斯坦暴徒的傷害。

同一周,在以色列國防軍入侵加沙地帶之前,發送給一個大型巴勒斯坦 WhatsApp 小組的消息警告說,以色列士兵已經在路上了。報告指出,這些消息都沒有任何事實依據。

該報告還發現,Facebook 和 Twitter 錯誤地阻止或限制了數百萬個主要是親巴勒斯坦人的帖子,原因是它們的自動內容審核系統。

Facebook 高級管理人員與以色列和巴勒斯坦官員交談,討論他們的內容刪除算法如何影響衝突,甚至在以色列建立了一個“特別運營中心”,阿拉伯語和希伯來語使用者都會監控違反規則的內容。網站。

報告發現,大多數親巴勒斯坦的帖子被 Facebook 和 Twitter 刪除,因為它們包含諸如“烈士”和“抵抗”之類的詞,這些詞會觸發算法並被解釋為發出暴力呼籲。


社交媒體:Instagram、Twitter、Facebook、LinkedIn、TikTok(圖片來源:對方提供)

這導致許多巴勒斯坦人聲稱在社交媒體平台上經歷了“不合理程度的審查”。

該報告指出,以色列精通的網絡單位標記了大量來自巴勒斯坦人的仇恨和暴力內容,這導致了不平衡,因為巴勒斯坦人缺乏這些方法來打擊社交媒體上的虛假信息。

“社交媒體並沒有製造今天的仇恨,但它加劇了問題,”該報告的作者之一保羅·M·巴雷特 (Paul M. Barrett) 說。他補充說:“兩極分化的後果範圍從對民主的失去信心到我們在國會大廈叛亂期間看到的那種政治暴力。”

Social media fuels polarization in Israeli-Palestinian conflict

A report by NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights noted misinformation on both sides of the Palestinian and Israeli conflict was shared on Facebook, TikTok, Twitter, WhatsApp and Youtube.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

SEPTEMBER 17, 2021 09:35




Police officers sta…

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