The Long View
The Long View
Jul 10, 2019
James Montier: 'How Do I Get Paid for Owning This Asset?'
Play • 53 min

Our guest on this week's installment of "The Long View" podcast is James Montier. Montier is a member of the asset-allocation team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. Before joining GMO in 2009, he was co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale. A prolific and incisive writer, Montier has authored several books, including Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance; Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment; and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing. He's also a regular contributor to GMO's library of white papers and research studies on topics ranging from productivity, strategic asset allocation, contrarianism, and more. In addition to his duties at GMO, Montier is also a visiting fellow at the University of Durham and a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.

Background 
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.

Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance by James Montier 

Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment by James Montier 

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy by James Montier 

GMO's research library  

Montier's articles in GMO's research library 

Montier's Role at GMO
"My role is essentially to be difficult, and it turns out I'm quite good at that." Montier describes his role at GMO and how his contributions to the firm are measured. (1:10-3:11)

Fostering Debate at GMO
"We have never had a house view." Why debate and constructive devil's advocacy is welcome at GMO. (3:12-4:31)

"Investing is one of those fields where there is almost constant evidence that we are all wrong." How to foster humility and a diversity of views. (4:32-7:38)

Debating Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion: Montier gives an example of an issue the team has debated recently--how long it takes for markets to revert to their long-term averages. (7:39-9:36)

Forecasting and Portfolio Construction
How the debate over mean reversion informs GMO's asset-class forecasts. (9:37-10:09)

Corporate concentration and low interest rates: How GMO is reconsidering these variables and their impact on the asset-class forecasts it makes. (10:10-11:38)

"The Idolatry of Interest Rates, Part II: Financial Heresy and Potential Utility in an ERP Framework" by James Montier and Ben Inker (Aug. 11, 2015)

How GMO incorporates its asset-class forecasts into the multi-asset strategies it manages. (11:39-12:37)

  • GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation III GBMFX  

The appeal of a "robust" forecast that's meant to help portfolios withstand various potential outcomes. (12:38-14:15)

"Our portfolios look a little freakish." Montier explains why GMO is U.S.-stock-phobic and, conversely, why the firm is finding value in alternatives. (14:16-18:04)

Career risk: Where individual investors hold an edge over institutions. (18:05-18:55)

Alternatives
Montier defines "alternatives." Different ways of owning standard risks--depression risk, inflation risk, and liquidity. (18:56-21:49)

Montier presents two examples of alternative strategies that GMO employs--merger arbitrage and put-selling--to own standard risks in different ways. (21:50-25:49) 

"We should size them such that they cannot hurt the overall fund should we get something wrong." How GMO sizes its positions in alternative strategies. (25:50-27:33) 

Alpha, beta, and decay: How GMO assesses an alternative strategy's vulnerability to being arbitraged away. (27:34-29:57)

GMO's Bearish U.S. Equity Forecast
"How do I get paid for owning this asset?" Key inputs to GMO's U.S. equity forecast--multiple, margin, yield, and growth. (29:58-32:08)

"A behavioral self-defense mechanism." How GMO's approach to forecasting helps to structure its thinking and anchors decision-making. (32:09-34:54)

"It's really valuation where we've been most wrong." Where GMO's U.S. equity forecast erred in recent years. (34:55-36:01)

"We have to wear that. We have to own it." Montier on steps that GMO has taken to introspect on its forecasting error and how that expresses itself in the way it makes decisions and manages money. (36:02-39:45)

Planning Amid a Dearth of Value
"A reach for yield in any way, shape, or form." Explaining the dearth of value. (39:46-41:43)

"We have always been pretty bad at (forecasting), and it's unlikely we're going to get a lot better." (41:44-44:37)

How should investors and advisors forecast asset-class returns and plan for the future? (44:38-47:25)

Capital Allocation
Montier on the folly of firms borrowing to repurchase shares: "The more stable the environment, the easier it is to take on leverage, but the greater the danger that taking leverage creates further down the line when you get some random shock." (47:26-50:49)

Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
bogleheads
Episode 030: Sarah Newcomb, host Rick Ferri
Sarah Newcomb, Ph.D., is a behavioral economist for Morningstar. In this role, she works to integrate the findings of her research into Morningstar's financial management applications and tools. Sarah has expertise in consumer psychology, economic decision-making, personal money management, and cognitive and social psychology. Before joining Morningstar in 2015, Sarah earned her doctorate in behavioral economics from the University of Maine, where her work focused on the psychological barriers to sound personal money management. She is the author of LOADED: Money, Psychology, and How to Get Ahead without Leaving Your Values Behind (Wiley, 2016). This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free website at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki. Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities around the country. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added on a regular basis. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent. This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.
55 min
Financial Decoder
Financial Decoder
Charles Schwab
Are You Rationalizing an Investing Mistake?
If you save money and invest it consistently, your path toward meeting your goals may seem simple. But most investors quickly discover that there are hurdles in the way—including our own brains. There are many cognitive and emotional biases that can trap us, and investors sometimes rationalize falling prey to these biases in familiar ways. In this episode, Mark is joined by Brad Bartick, branch manager of the downtown Denver Schwab branch, and financial consultant Joanna Heckman to discuss four different biases that investors have faced recently and what they sound like in action. Subscribe to _Financial Decoder_ for free on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen. _Financial Decoder_ is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures: Investors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Please read it carefully before investing. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. This information does not constitute and is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, Schwab recommends consultation with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, financial planner, or investment manager. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.Important Disclosures: The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0221-1EPK)
29 min
Sound Investing
Sound Investing
Paul Merriman
The Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy: 2021 Update
Paul Merriman discusses the 2021 updated Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy, designed to show why the 10 equity asset classes should be part of a diversified portfolio. This new study uses an expanded base of returns so that all 10 equity asset classes are reflected in the 1970 to 2020 period. While the expansion of returns makes the returns more dependable, the results are virtually the same as with the previously limited data base. Every year since 2012, The Merriman Financial Education Foundation updates this UB&H Strategy as among its most important work. The 2021 study makes reference to two tables that listeners will want to review. They are the Worldwide Equity Portfolio Tables 50% US/50% Int’l and the Worldwide Equity Portfolio Tables 70% US/30% Int’l. This podcast is part of the educational offerings from The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, a registered 501(c)3.  If you found value in this podcast, here are five ways to support the podcast and our foundation: 1)     Leave a podcast review on your player of choice. 2)    Sign up for our biweekly newsletter at PaulMerriman.com 3)    Use our M1 Finance affiliate link to set up a brokerage account and use our portfolio suggestions. If you fund your account with a minimum of $1,000, our foundation will receive a one-time fee at no cost to you, which helps support our financial education projects.. 4)    Buy our latest book, We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement available at Amazon and other online outlets. 5)  Consider making a tax-deductible donation to the Foundation to support our mission to provide financial education to investors.  Thank you!
46 min
WashingtonWise Investor
WashingtonWise Investor
Charles Schwab
Will the Markets Get What They Want From Washington?
Minus the daily tweets that drove the news cycle for four years, Washington has settled into a different rhythm. In this episode of _WashingtonWise Investor_, Mike Townsend is joined by Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s chief investment strategist, to consider what’s driving the markets and what it will take to meet expectations. They also discuss what investors have learned from recent hyper-speculative trading, the impact on the markets should corporate tax rates rise, and how the building and bursting of micro-bubbles can impact the entire market. Mike also considers how the next round of economic stimulus is shaping up and moving through Congress, how regulators and lawmakers are investigating the need for more regulations in the wake of recent market volatility, and how recent departures in the House bring new pressure on Speaker Pelosi’s ability to hold her party together. _WashingtonWise Investor_ is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit Schwab.com/WashingtonWise. If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. This content was created as of the specific date indicated and reflects the author’s views as of that date. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions. All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Short selling is an advanced trading strategy involving potentially unlimited risks, and must be done in a margin account. Margin trading increases your level of market risk. (0221-1C4M)
33 min
More episodes
Search
Clear search
Close search
Google apps
Main menu