The Long View
The Long View
Oct 14, 2020
Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates
Play • 48 min

Our guest on the podcast today is Karsten Jeske, the founder of the website EarlyRetirementNow and a thoughtful and technically proficient member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) community. In 2018, Karsten retired in his early 40s, after a career in the financial world. He served as Director of Asset Allocation Research for Mellon Capital Management from 2008 through 2018, and before that, was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for a decade. Karsten has his PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota and has taught undergraduate and PhD-level economics at Emory University. He's also a chartered financial analyst.

Background

Karsten Jeske Bio

Early Retirement Now

FIRE Definition

The Pandemic’s Impact on the FIRE Movement

The Shortest Recession Ever? My Thoughts on the State of the Economy,” by Karsten Jenke, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 25, 2020.

Tanja Hester: The Pandemic Will Stoke Interest in Early Retirement,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, June 3, 2020.

The Coronavirus Pandemic and Retirement Security,” by Mark Miller, Morningstar.com, Aug. 24, 2020.

Retiring During a Pandemic,” by Christine Benz and Maria Bruno, Morningstar.com, Aug. 14, 2020.

Can You Retire Early? Should You?” by Christine Benz and Susan Dziubinski, Aug. 7, 2020.

Early Withdrawal Rates for Early Retirees

The Trinity Study

The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series--A Guide for First-Time Readers

Do We Really Have to Lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% Now?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 31, 2020.

Shiller P/E Ratio Definition

Who’s Afraid of a Bear Market?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Oct. 30, 2019.

Low Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates

Jamie Hopkins: How Low Bond Yields, Recession Impact Retirement Planning,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, July 14, 2020.

Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule is No Longer Safe,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, April 29, 2020.

What Ultralow Yields Mean for Your Financial and Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, May 4, 2020.

Low Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere. Here’s What That Means for Retirement Planning,” by David Blanchett, ThinkAdvisor.com, Aug. 14, 2020.

IRA Required Minimum Distribution Worksheet

Bogleheads’ Variable Percentage Withdrawal

Sequence of Return Risk/Asset Allocation

Sequence Risk Definition

The Extraordinary Upside Potential of Sequence of Return Risk in Retirement,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Feb. 20, 2019.

The Pros and Cons of Rising Equity Glide Paths in Retirement,” by Wade Pfau, forbes.com, May 4, 2017.

The Portfolio Size Effect and Using a Bond Tent to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone,” by Michael Kitces, Kitces.com, Oct. 5, 2016.

Cut Stocks or Add to Them? A Key Dilemma to Your Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, morningstar.com, July 25, 2019.

How to Determine Asset Allocation in a Retirement Portfolio,” interview with Christine Benz and David Blanchett, Morningstar.com, April 29, 2015.

The Yield Illusion: How Can a High-Dividend Portfolio Exacerbate Sequence Risk?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Feb. 13, 2019.

Healthcare and the FIRE Movement

Top 3 Health Insurance Options If You Retire Early,” by Thom Tracy, Investopedia.com, April 14, 2020.

How Does the F.I.R.E Movement Affect Insurance?” by Brianna Slattery, clearsurance.com, Jan. 23, 2020.

The Ten Commandments of Whole Life Insurance,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Sept. 26, 2018.

Health Care Sharing Ministry

Affordable Care Act

Social Security

Taxation of Social Security: The Tax Torpedo & Roth Conversion Tightrope,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Nov. 13, 2019.

Social Security Benefits: Early or Late Retirement?” ssa.gov.

Networking & Socializing in Retirement

Work, Retirement, and Social Networks at Older Ages,” by Eleonora Patacchini and Gary V. Engelhardt, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, November 2016.

Why It’s Important to Stay Social in Retirement and How to Do It,” by Rob Pascale, forbes.com, Oct. 31, 2019.

WEALTHTRACK
WEALTHTRACK
Consuelo Mack
Financial To-Do List For A New Year [2021]
Blast off! Stock markets are setting records, with tech stocks leading the charge once again. “Don’t fight the Fed” should now encompass “don’t fight the Treasury, fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and investor demand for ‘real’ (after inflation) returns.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the “S&P 500 rose 14.3% from Election Day through Inauguration Day, its best performance on record for that period.” (The Wall Street Journal “Stocks Climb To Records, Led By Tech Sector” 1/21/21)    In retrospect, 2020 was an entire year for the record books:  - A once in a century global pandemic; - Unprecedented, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus; - A brief deep recession and the shortest bear market in U.S. history; - A record-breaking stock market rally; - The continuation of near record-low interest rates - And the election of a new president with a very different policy agenda.  Portfolio rebalancing is just one of the actions on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. In part 2 of our interview with Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance, she helps us get in personal financial shape for the year ahead.   WEALTHTRACK #1730 broadcast on January 22, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/2021s-financial-to-do-list-with-morningstars-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/ Books mentioned in  the episode: 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3ig0cZE Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3ifVVp8 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support
26 min
Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
bogleheads
Episode 029: Frazer Rice, host Rick Ferri
Frazer Rice is the author of “Wealth, Actually: Intelligent Decision-Making for the 1%”, host of the “Wealth, Actually” podcast, creator of the "Wealth, Actually" blog, and a Northeast Regional Director for Pendleton Square Trust Company. Frazer is an attorney and experienced trust officer. His wealth management career has included serving for over 15 years as a Managing Director at Wilmington Trust Company. We cover a lot of ground in this episode including estate planning, reasons for using trusts, selecting trustees, family dynamics, investing for 1%'ers, and much more! This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free website at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki. Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities around the country. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added on a regular basis. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent. This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.
1 hr
Money For the Rest of Us
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
Are You Underweight Chinese Stocks? Pros and Cons of Investing in China
Most global stock ETFs, funds and indices have only about 5% invested in China even though China has the second-largest economy in the world. What are the pros and cons of increasing your allocation to Chinese stocks. Topics covered include: * Why has China's economy rebounded faster than other countries * What are Chinese A-share stocks * How large are China's economy and stock market * What are four threats that could derail the performance of Chinese stocks * How individuals can invest in China's stock market including A-shares Thanks to SmartAsset for sponsoring the episode. Show Notes Chinese shares: should you increase the amount in your portfolio? by Sam Dickens—IG Group China A-Shares Definition by Troy Segal—Investopedia China’s Economy Powers Ahead While the Rest of the World Reels by Stella Yifan Xie, Eun-Young Jeong and Mike Cherney—The Wall Street Journal China Still Grew and Fueled Its Rise as Covid-19 Shook the Global Economy by Jonathan Cheng—The Wall Street Journal With Americans Stuck at Home, Trade With China Roars Back by Ana Swanson—The New York Times Buffett Indicator: China Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns—GuruFocus.com MSCI Deletions Trigger Rush to Sell Chinese Telecom Stocks by Jeanny Yu and Sofia Horta e Costa Executive Order on Addressing the Threat from Securities Investments that Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies—The White House Non-SDN Communist Chinese Military Companies List as of January 08, 2021—U.S. Department of the Treasury MSCI ACWI Index (USD) December 31, 2020—MSCI How China Lost Patience With Jack Ma, Its Loudest Billionaire by Lulu Yilun Chen and Coco Liu—Bloomberg China Clampdown on Big Tech Puts More Billionaires on Notice by Zheping Huang and Coco Liu—Bloomberg China’s College Graduates Can’t Find Jobs. The Solution: Grad School. by Vivian Wang
20 min
Sound Investing
Sound Investing
Paul Merriman
2021 ETF & mutual fund recommendations and 8 Q&A
Paul announces Chris Pedersen's Best In Class ETF Recommendations for 2021 and Paul’s updated Mutual Fund recommendations for Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price and Schwab. In anticipation of next week’s Zoom call to discuss the new portfolios and fund recommendations, Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls are soliciting questions from you, our listeners. If you have questions related to this work, please submit them to info@paulmerriman.com with subject line: ETF/MUTUAL FUND QUESTION. They will try to address them in next week’s recording. Paul answers these recent questions from our readers and listeners: * How should I invest $160,000 for my 66-year-old mother who doesn’t need the money to live on? 12:28 * What are the advantages and disadvantages of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy and 2 Funds for Life for a 57 year old? 18:39 * What is the most tax-efficient way to rebalance an All-Equity portfolio? 26:39 * Should I pay off a mortgage or invest in my retirement accounts? 29:45 * Why are your large-cap value index higher than the large-cap value at Vanguard? 33:12 * How is having $300,000 at age 65 a million dollar advantage? 42:55 * Why do you think index funds are better than owning an investment in real estate property? 48:45 * I want to put money into a Roth IRA. Should I use your tax-deferred or taxable portfolio recommendations? 58:54 Don McDonald’s Talking Real Money Minute — “Cryptocurrency: yes or no?" Don McDonald, Co-Founder and co-host of the "Talking Real Money" podcast, produces the “Money Minutes” often featured on “Sound Investing” podcasts. Don also produced the soon-to-be-released audio version for our latest book, We’re Talking Millions!.
1 hr 2 min
Alpha Trader
Alpha Trader
Seeking Alpha
Things could get ugly quickly - Bob Iaccino joins Alpha Trader
This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Bob Iaccino, chief strategist at Path Trading Partners, and co-portfolio manager at Stock Think Tank. “Be ready for an ugly January,” goes the title of Iaccino’s latest monthly newsletter. By that he means not necessarily a down move in markets, but instead plenty of volatility. While there’s been some volatility, it’s mostly been to the upside this month, with the S&P 500 up about 4%. Over the past few weeks, Iaccino and team have been unloading long positions in stocks as their upside targets get hit, narrowing holdings to just three names: AbbVie (ABBV), Best Buy (BBY), Big Lots (BIG). Taking one, the bullish position on Best Buy is easily explained - when folks get stimulus checks, they’re likely going to go out and buy a new TV. Turning to the new presidential administration, Iaccino is somewhat in agreement about the conventional and generally business-friendly nature of its makeup - plenty of recycled D.C. hands who have long histories of being mostly amenable to corporate interests. That said, Iaccino has gone through an early version of some tax proposals, and is seeing some unfriendly things like taxing of overseas profits, and corporate and payroll tax hikes. The likelihood that all these things pass may be rather small, but Chief Financial Officers should nevertheless be prepared to act. Of the big news of the past few days - and that’s the outsized moves in the likes of GameStop (GME), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Dillard’s (DDS), Express (EXPR), and BlackBerry (BB), among others - Iaccino suspects it’s an old-fashioned, coordinated (and thus illegal) gamma squeeze, only with online message boards being used today. There’s plenty more, including a detailed explanation of the gamma squeeze, yet another example of buying the rumor and selling the news, and Iaccino’s outlook for currently rallying crude oil. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
34 min
Stansberry Investor Hour
Stansberry Investor Hour
Stansberry Research
What's Wrong With the Hedge Fund Industry?
Despite the multitude of problems facing our country, stocks keep moving higher and higher, leading more people to question if we're currently in a bubble. This leads Dan to explore two important questions. What do you do with your money when you know you're in a bubble? And what do you do if you know that bubble can last for years before popping? Then Dan invites Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments, on to the show to answer some questions about the world of hedge funds. Andrew joined the hedge fund industry in 1994 as a portfolio manager at Baupost for the legendary Seth Klarman. In recent years, Andrew's focus has been on how the hedge fund model can be improved based on liquidity, access, and cost perspectives. Dan and Andrew discuss his start in the industry and how things have changed over the past 3 decades. Andrew shares some of the reasons hedge funds have declined in popularity over the years.... and how his firm, Dynamic Beta Investments, is looking to change that. And finally, on this week's mailbag quite a few listeners write in to give their perspective on what living through a coup is really like. Some agree with Dan while some others take exception with how Dan spoke about the situation. One even accuses Dan of being a Trump cultist! Listen to Dan's fiery rebuttal to this email and more on this week's episode. Interested in more from Stansberry Research? Check out the American Consequences podcast here: https://podfollow.com/americanconsequences
1 hr 19 min
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