The Long View
The Long View
Mar 23, 2020
Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’
35 min

Our guest today is Dr. Mohamed El-Erian. Dr. El-Erian is Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer, and President-Elect of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. He first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO’s portfolio management and investment strategy group. He rejoined the company at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company. 

Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., where he served as Deputy Director. Dr. El-Erian has served on numerous boards and committees, including a stint as Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council from Dec. 2012 to Jan. 2017. 

A much sought-after author, columnist, and speaker, Dr. El-Erian has published two best-selling and critically acclaimed books, When Markets Collide and The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse. He also was named to _Foreign Policy _magazine's list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” four years in a row, among other accolades.

Dr. El-Erian holds a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University and received his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.

Dr. Mohamed El-Erian bio
Dr. El-Erian’s commentary
Dr. El-Erian’s tv and radio interviews
The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, by Mohamed El-Erian, January 2016. 
When Markets Collide, by Mohamed El-Erian, June 2008. 
• “The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers," Foreign Policy, Nov. 26, 2012. 
• Dr. El-Erian’s Twitter handle @elerianm  

Dr. El-Erian’s Recent Comments on COVID-19

• “The Coming Coronavirus Recession: And the Uncharted Territory Beyond," Foreign Affairs, Mar. 17, 2020. 

• “The Federal Reserve Takes its Crisis Management Game Up Several Notches,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 17, 2020, 

• “It Will Get Better But After We Feel Even More Unsettled,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 13, 2020. 

• “Six Things Investors Should Remember Amid Extreme Stock Market Volatility,” Yahoo Finance; Mar. 8, 2020. 

• “El-Erian: We Shouldn’t Bail Out Every Industry Halted by Coronavirus Crisis,” CNBC, Mar. 19, 2020. 

• “El-Erian: Fed Should Have Been More ‘Laser-Focused’ on Market Failures,” CNBC, Mar. 16, 2020. 

• “El-Erian on Markets: ‘It’s Getting Less Scary Than It Has Been for a While," CNBC, Mar. 13, 2020. 

• “El-Erian: U.S. Stock Market Could End Up Dropping 20%-30% Before Bottom Is Finally Reached," CNBC, Mar. 9, 2020.

Shownotes (Note: We will add the interview transcript soon.)

• Introducing Dr. El-Erian and bio (0:21)

High Level Macro
• The market and economic backdrop have changed drastically in what seems like no time. You’ve been prescient in foreseeing some of the impacts. But what has surprised you thus far? (1:48)
• We’ve heard you say that financial “sudden stops” are more addressable than economic “sudden stops”. Can you explain the difference between financial/economic “sudden stops," why the latter is harder to deal with, and how that relates to our current situation? (2:58)

Policy Response
• Public health concerns are trumping economic realities at the moment. For instance, entire states are being told to shelter in place. This is economically devastating. Do you think this is prudent policy without a stimulus package or backstop of some kind? (5:13)
• You’ve argued that interest-rate cuts and broad fiscal stimulus shouldn’t be emphasized during this initial phase of the crisis. That we should instead focus on containment and building immunity to COVID-19. That seems surprising considering the scores of those who have been abruptly laid off or seen business dry up. What are they supposed to do without a massive, immediate stimulus? (7:02)
• Can we talk about the impacts that you foresee for the private and public sectors and what you view as the correct policy response for addressing each? Let’s take them one by one: (9:29)
- The suddenly unemployed
- The small business owner
- The lender
- The airline and hospitality sectors
- The state or municipality

Capital Markets
• Turning to capital markets, we’ve obviously seen stocks enter a steep sell-off. But the bond market has also broken down. Can you describe for some of our listeners--who might not be as familiar with the inner workings or dynamics of the bond market--what has happened there, why, and what will stem it? (11:29)
• The Fed stepped in to backstop money market funds in recent days. Have you seen signs that is succeeding in stabilizing corporate funding markets like the commercial paper market? (15:05)
• What will be point of equilibrium at which fiscal and monetary policy relief overtakes fear to stabilize markets and the economy? (16:57)

• You wrote that one of the lasting consequences of novel coronavirus will be accelerating deglobalization and deregionalization. Global supply-chain management and trade interconnection has been the dominant trend in recent decades. Why would we retreat from that, and how will that be felt in the real economy and daily life? (19:12)
• To this point, while COVID-19 has been deemed a global pandemic, its impacts have been mostly northern hemispheric. What do you think the implications of the virus spreading to the southern hemisphere over the balance of this year will be on trade, markets, etc.? (21:18)

• About a week ago you said you expected the stock market to decline 30% from its highs. At that time it was down around 19%, and we’ve seen the market fall another 10 percentage points since then, putting it down almost 30% from the high. Have you revised your view or do you feel the sell-off has largely played itself out? (23:40)
• Most of our listeners are individual investors or advisors who diversify their assets widely across asset classes and styles, often using index funds and ETFs. Do you think this episode warrants a re-think of how they’ve approached asset allocation and investment selection? (27:03)

• Closing, disclosures, and outro (32:03)

(Disclaimer: This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording. Such opinions are subject to change. The views and opinions of guests on this program are not necessarily those of Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates. Morningstar and its affiliates are not affiliated with this guest or his or her business affiliates unless otherwise stated. Morningstar does not guarantee the accuracy, or the completeness of the data presented herein. Jeff Ptak is an employee of Morningstar Research Services LLC. Morningstar Research Services is a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. and is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Morningstar Research Services shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from or related to the information, data analysis or opinions or their use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. Individuals should seriously consider if an investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives and risk profile before making any investment decision.)

Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
Bogleheads On Investing Podcast
Episode 027: Cliff Asness, host Rick Ferri
Dr. Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management, a quantitative money manager overseeing $186 billion in assets as of December 2019. Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman, Sachs & Co. He is an award-winning researcher on quantitative investment strategies and has authored articles for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in both. He received an M.B.A. with high honors and a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago, where he was Eugene Fama’s student and teaching assistant for two years. This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization's free website is and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki. Bogleheads sites are operated by volunteers who contribute time and talent. Donations help defray operating costs. Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities around the country and currently meet in Philadelphia in the autumn of each year. There are 56 Local Chapters in the US and three Foreign Chapters that also meet regularly. New Chapters are being added on a regular basis. This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012.
59 min
Consuelo Mack
Medicare & Lockdown: Better than Ever? (U.S.)
According to Medicare benefits expert, Dr. Katy Votava COVID-19 has altered several aspects of Medicare coverage and procedures. She will tell us what’s different and how to take advantage of the changes. She will also help us meet the deadline for Medicare’s annual enrollment period which ends on December 7th and allows medicare beneficiaries to evaluate their Medicare Advantage Plans and part D, prescription drug plans, and shift to different providers if it makes sense.  Votava is a Medicare expert who advises individuals, small businesses, and financial planners from her healthcare consulting business, She is also the author of Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers, now in its 7th edition and an Amazon bestseller. It is a straightforward, easy to navigate guide to Medicare which is a very complex multi-part system that frequently does warrant annual updating by its beneficiaries. An estimated 90 percent of Americans pay too much for their Medicare coverage.  WEALTHTRACK # 1722 published on November 27, 2020 More info: – The official U.S. Government site for Medicare 1-800-MEDICARE – The State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) site that directs consumers to free Medicare counseling and assistance - Eldercare locator, a public service of the U.S. Administration of Aging, connecting you to services for older adults and their families. 1-800-677-1116    Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers: --- Support this podcast:
19 min
Alpha Trader
Alpha Trader
Seeking Alpha
Bitcoin wins institutional acceptance, supplants gold - Dan Held joins Alpha Trader
This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with Dan Held, an old hand in cryptocurrency, who is currently growth head at crypto exchange, Krakenfx. Held has been in Bitcoin since it was $10, so what does he think about this year's run that has taken its value north of $18K, and how does it differ from the crypto's other major bull markets? Institutional acceptance of Bitcoin is the key, says Held, noting not just hedge fund legends like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller as new hodlers (particularly Jones), but Rick Riedler, the CIO of fixed income for the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock. One hedge funder not yet convinced is Ray Dalio, who is of an open mind on Bitcoin, but wonders if governments could just ban it at some point. "You can't kill an idea," says Held, who addressed that very issue in a tweetstorm late last week. The very nature of Bitcoin and de-centralization, he says, makes it highly difficult for governments to outlaw it, even if they wanted to. Held suspects that if Dalio takes the time to further study Bitcoin, he'll become as big of a fan as some of his institutional brethren. Held also addresses Bitcoin as "Gold 2.0," i.e. similar but way better than gold (XAUUSD:CUR) in terms of being a hedge against money printing and an overreaching government. He reminds that Bitcoin's supply can never exceed 21M - increasing prices may result in increased attention, but it doesn't result in boosted supplies. The exact opposite is the case with gold - higher prices almost assuredly bring about higher supplies. Also, Bitcoin by its nature can be explicitly verified with very little effort. Gold? Do you fancy carrying a spectrometer around? Never mind the ease with which Bitcoin can be held in our own personal custody and transported. There's plenty more, including a discussion of Ethereum (ETH-USD), the "religion" of Bitcoin and why it's a good thing, and Held's thoughts on Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit
43 min
More episodes
Clear search
Close search
Google apps
Main menu