Pivot
Pivot
Feb 8, 2019
Happy(ish) birthday, Facebook.
Play episode · 40 min

Kara and Scott (sort of) celebrate Facebook's 15th birthday. With pop-ins and hot takes from a couple friends, including Congressman Ro Khanna and podcast Queen Aminatou Sow, they get into how they REALLY feel about the platform. Scott and Kara also talk about the moniker "people of wealth", the future of podcasting, and clap backs from Nancy Pelosi.

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The Ezra Klein Show
The Ezra Klein Show
Vox
Nate Silver on why 2020 isn't 2016
As you may have heard, there's a pretty important election coming up. That means it's time to bring back the one and only Nate Silver.  Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, boasts one of the best election forecasting records of any analyst in the last 15 years. His forecasting models successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US presidential election and all 50 states in 2012. And in 2016, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28 percent chance of victory — a significantly higher percentage than virtually any other prominent analyst at the time. He knows what he’s talking about, and it shows in this conversation. We discuss:  What went wrong with the polls in 2016 — and whether pollsters today have corrected for those mistakes  Why a 2016-sized polling error in 2020 would still hand Joe Biden the election Why the 2020 race has been so incredibly steady despite a global pandemic, an economic crisis, and the biggest national protest movement in US history  The possibility of a Biden landslide   The not-so-small chance that Biden could win Texas and Georgia  The massive Republican advantage in the Senate, House, and Electoral College — and how that affects our national politics  Why the Senate would still advantage Republicans, even if Democrats added five blue states.  Whether the Bernie Sanders left took the wrong lessons from 2016  Why Biden’s unorthodox 2020 campaign strategy has been so successful  Whether Sanders would be doing just as well against Trump as Biden is doing  How a more generic, non-Trump Republican would be faring against Biden  Why Silver is generally optimistic that we will avoid an electoral crisis on November 3  And much more. References: “How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19." Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight "The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court." Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Let the People Pick the President: The Case for Abolishing the Electoral College by Jesse Wegman "Toby Ord on existential risk, Donald Trump, and thinking in probabilities." The Ezra Klein Show "The Real Story of 2016" by Nate Silver Book recommendations: The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom The Precipice by Toby Ord   Credits: Producer/Audio engineer - Jeff Geld Researcher - Roge Karma Please consider making a contribution to Vox to support this show: bit.ly/givepodcasts Your support will help us keep having ambitious conversations about big ideas. New to the show? Want to check out Ezra’s favorite episodes? Check out the Ezra Klein Show beginner’s guide (http://bit.ly/EKSbeginhere) Want to contact the show? Reach out at ezrakleinshow@vox.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
1 hr 11 min
Worldly
Worldly
Vox
France, Islam, and free speech
Jenn and Alex discuss the recent terror attacks in France that have occurred amid a national and international uproar about cartoons of the Prophet Muhammed and President Emmanuel Macron’s stance toward Islam in the country. They discuss what Macron’s push for an “Islam of France” really means, the complexities for Muslims to fully integrate into French society, and the ongoing debate about freedom of expression vs. respect for religion. They end by discussing the global response to what’s happening in France, especially the hypocrisy of certain Muslim leaders who are using a contentious issue to benefit themselves. References: Alex has two pieces about the situation in France. A McGill study shows the challenges Muslims have faced to fully integrate in France. A smart opinion piece in Politico argues Macron isn’t a hardliner against Islam. Marine Le Pen, Macron’s far-right challenger, is already calling what’s happening a “war.” Turkey’s leader is using this situation to distract from his economic problems at home. Hosts: Zack Beauchamp (@zackbeauchamp), senior correspondent, Vox Jennifer Williams (@jenn_ruth), senior foreign editor, Vox Alex Ward (@AlexWardVox), national security reporter, Vox   Consider contributing to Vox: If you value Worldly’s work, please consider making a contribution to Vox: bit.ly/givepodcasts   More to explore: Subscribe for free to Today, Explained, Vox’s daily podcast to help you understand the news, hosted by Sean Rameswaram.   About Vox: Vox is a news network that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines.   Follow Us: Vox.com  Newsletter: Vox Sentences  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
50 min
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