Lagniappe
Stokes Family Office
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Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!
Available episodes
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1 day ago
Looking Under the Hood of the Market
We’ll check out a choppy market and how it reacted to last week’s Fed announcement that rates will be higher for longer and another rate hike is on the way. We’ll also look at why we may be entering a time to buy fixed income, how opinion sentiments of inflation have an impact, and give updates on the oil and crypto markets.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - Reviewing the last week’s choppy market
[04:20] - Bond markets and opportunities to buy fixed income
[08:38] - The seasonality of the market
[14:25] - Oil markets and deflation
[20:03] - What happened to cryptocurrency?
Links
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The price of a May 2050 UST bond is now below 50
Down big in August and September isn’t always a bad thing
Pre-Election Years = 80% Hit Rate after down Mid-terms
Oil at $100 is too high, even for energy companies
JPMorgan's UK bank Chase to ban crypto transactions
Roche: Menendez could have been earning $26K+ per year risk-free with T-Bills
How chemotherapy was derived
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Sep 21, 2023
Interest Rates, Venture Capital, and 10-Year Treasuries
We start this week with our thoughts on the Fed estimating rates will be higher for longer. We’ll then dive into the craziness of the venture capital industry over the last few years and how interest rates are playing a role. We finish with a historical perspective on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and bullish takes on Taylor Swift and our New Orleans Saints.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - Checking in with Jerome Powell and the Fed
[04:41] - Instacart IPO & the competition within the venture capital industry
[14:03] - How interest rates are affecting real estate and venture capital
[15:58] - Ten-Year Treasuries
[22:40] - LA tent city, T-Swift economics, and excitement for the Saints
Links
Current projections for Fed Funds Rate
Investments in Instacart made after ‘15 underperforming S&P 500 significantly
Home price index with an 18-month lag versus CPI
Demand for vacation homes at 7 year low
Total returns on an annual basis of the 10-year US Treasury bond
Timmer: A compelling risk-reward picture for owning bonds
Meb Faber: The Ivy Portfolio
California tent city to cost $44k per tent
Taylor Swift helps Chicago book most hotel rooms on record
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Sep 15, 2023
What We Learned During CPI Week
Join us as we examine sticky core CPI numbers and how shelter factors in. We’ll also look at why deflation may be our biggest economic risk right now. We’ll finish with tales of a Somali pirate stock exchange and how an idea from the movie Trading Places is playing out in real life.
Key Takeaways
[00:25] - Housing’s effect on inflation and CPI
[04:41] - Disinflationary risks
[08:19] - Why the S&P 500 has been stuck in a rut
[15:44] - The Somali pirate stock exchange
[18:00] - Orange juice futures are at all-time highs!
Links
Cullen Roche: Where is inflation heading now?
Zillow home price data for America's 40 largest metropolitan housing markets
Goldman Sachs: 3 developments that will slow US growth to a crawl in Q4 2023
The S&P 500’s prolonged period of limbo
BoA scraps bullish stance on 10-year treasuries
TikTok Investors: the Somali Pirate Exchange Method
Orange juice futures prices
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Sep 8, 2023
Fully Charged: A Deep Dive Into the Energy Sector
As we head into a big, energized sports weekend, we go all in on all things energy. From oil and gas stocks to the demand and performance of EVs, we’ll review where we’ve been and where we’re headed in the world of energy investing.
Key Takeaways
[02:45] - The current state of the oil market
[04:41] - The demand for and price of electric cars
[08:19] - Investing in oil companies and commodities in general over the last decade
[12:17] - Will there be a re-rating on energy stocks?
[15:07] - How big of a factor does ESG play?
[17:23] - Fuel economy, EVs, and self-driving cars
[21:18] - Berkshire Hathaway, Fidelity, Robin Hood, and the power of disciplined investing
Links
WTI is up 25% since Jim Cramer went bearish on oil
Tesla Model S and Model X base prices drop once again
Vanguard Energy ETF
Rockefeller Foundation moved away from fossil fuels in 2021
Harvard says it will not invest in fossil fuels
Fuel economy for all vehicle classes has improved substantially over past 2 decades
Odd Lots podcast: self-driving cars might finally be for real
In-ground pool permits declined by -36% in units and -30% in dollars YoY
If Berkshire Hathaway stock tanked 99% it would still have outperformed S&P 500
Fidelity study: best-performing accounts were of people who forgot they had an account
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Aug 31, 2023
Jobs, GDP, Frozen Real Estate, & IPO Bubbles
As we head into Labor Day weekend, we fittingly look at the latest jobs report and the revised GDP numbers. We’ll also think location, location, location as we investigate the areas that are winning and losing the migration/real estate race. Finally, we’ll review some of our favorite COVID-era IPOs and wonder if the euphoria bubble is over for now.
Key Takeaways
[01:05] - Jobs report and the GDP data revision
[06:28] - What does the frozen real estate market mean?
[10:15] - Which US areas are winning? Which are losing?
[16:16] - Mark Cuban + the right place, right time nature of venture capitalism
[19:09] - Has the IPO euphoria window closed for the time being?
Links
U.S. GDP grew less vigorously than believed in Q2
The labor market is now looser than it was pre-Covid
Home price decline from peak in 40 largest US markets
Just 1% of U.S. homes have changed hands this year
The rental market continues to slow
30 migration winners and losers
Mark Cuban has taken a net loss on $20M in Shark Tank investments
Traeger: another Pandemic IPO to fall down to earth
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Aug 26, 2023
Fed Symposium + Housing Market + Financial Superpowers
As the Federal Reserve hosts its annual conference out West in Jackson Hole, we’ll take a look at what Jerome Powell said and what they forecasted that they’ll do next. We also discuss how mortgage rates, cash buyers, and new builds are affecting the real estate market. We finish with Humble Dollar’s seven financial superpowers that can help you make, save, invest, and ultimately enjoy money.
Key Takeaways
[00:20] - Checking in on the Fed’s economic policy symposium
[05:18] - Is there pent-up demand for home purchases?
[10:15] - Unsurprising news out of Russia
[12:16] - Financial Superpowers
Links
Powell: "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal”
Truflation says we’re currently at 2.56%
Richard Moody: Regions Economic Outlook, August 2023
Spreads between treasuries and mortgages are still extremely high
Downed Russian jet carried Wagner’s hierarchy including Yevgeny Prigozhin
Jonathan Clements’ financial superpowers he says we should all strive to cultivate
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Aug 17, 2023
Not Taking the Fear-Mongering Bait
After Michael Burry (of Big Short fame) made his crash prediction, we decided to go back through the success rate of his predictions. We then go abroad and take a look at the Chinese economy’s contraction, how Britain and our Mississippi neighbors are similar, and more insane sportswashing from Saudi Arabia. We’ll end with data on young homeowners and how coastal areas could take an even bigger real estate market hit.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - Fearmongering from Michael Burry + the media
[06:30] - What’s going on with the Chinese market?
[11:33] - Britain = Mississippi and Neymar = rich
[14:41] - The shocking data on how much Americans have saved for retirement
[17:39] - Homeownership rate for young people may be better than narrative says
[20:43] - Factoring in homeowner’s insurance in places like New Orleans
Links
Big Short trader Michael Burry bets $1.6 billion on stock market crash
Michael Burry’s market predictions: Hits, misses, and the reality
Mexico surpassed China as the top U.S. trading partner
China suspends report on youth unemployment, which was at a record high
Is Britain really as poor as Mississippi?
Perks of Neymar’s Saudi Arabia football club deal
Here’s what a $5M retirement looks like in the U.S.
Young homeownership rate actually comparable to the last four decades
Mortgage rates and home prices needed to return to pre-pandemic affordability
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Aug 11, 2023
Doom & Gloom vs. Hype + UPS Drivers, Phil Mickelson & a Weekly Inflation Update
We start this week by looking at perma-bear prognosticators and on the flip side, the excitement and danger behind the hype of the “next big industry”. And staying on winners and losers, we’ll examine UPS drivers, the decline in petroleum interest, and Phil Mickelson’s eye-opening bets. We will, of course, finish with our weekly inflation update.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - The doom-and-gloom-ers are back
[07:49] - The winners and losers of darling tech companies
[12:50] - It’s a good time to be a UPS driver
[13:50] - While oil is up, undergrad interest is way down
[18:31] - Phil Mickelson’s bets
[21:06] - What’s driving the decline in inflation?
Links
John Hussman predicts extreme bubble in stocks will end in tears
WeWork - from $47 billion to $270 million
NVDA joins 99 companies with the highest P/S multiple within the 500 largest stocks
From Apple to Amazon, the staggering cash-on-hand numbers
Full-time UPS drivers will earn $170,000 a year, on average, in new contract
Undergrad enrollment in petroleum engineering down 75% over the past 10 years
Vanguard Energy ETF
Since 1995, US Airfares have increased 29% on a nominal basis but have actually declined 36% after adjusting for inflation
New book alleges Phil Mickelson wagered over $1 billion, tried to bet on Ryder Cup
US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today
The demand for mortgages has evaporated
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Aug 1, 2023
Market Recovery in Review
As potentially positive economic factors pile up, we look at the market’s recovery, what’s factored into disinflation, and where we go from here. We’ll also examine two strategic competitions: oil vs electricity and real estate vs. the S&P 500.
Key Takeaways
[03:17] - The tailwinds of deflation
[07:49] - Is our power grid ready for mass EV usage?
[12:06] - Oil isn’t going anywhere
[15:03] - Real estate investment compared to the S&P 500
Links
Sam Ro: Everything looked good last week
Barry Sternlicht on the ‘category 5 hurricane’ hitting office buildings
6 things that actually cost less than last year, despite inflation
Nick Timiraos: Why the drivers of lower inflation matter
WTI Oil up 15% in July
Goldman Sachs estimates global oil demand has risen to an all-time high
Elon Musk’s latest mission: rev up the electricity industry
Jeff Currie: oil’s not going anywhere
Nick Maggiulli: The Return on Hassle
2010 acres outside Telluride purchased for $130,000 in 40s listed for $67.75M
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Jul 20, 2023
It’s Earnings Season!
As performance numbers roll in from some of the country’s largest companies, we take a look at how the markets are performing here vs. the World and how America became a global economic leader. We also discuss how the market deals with intra-year volatility and check back in on Taylor Swift and Messi as market impactors.
Key Takeaways
[02:38] - Breaking down the latest earnings numbers
[05:00] - How the markets move intra-year and year over year
[07:17] - How the rest of the world is faring in comparison to the U.S.
[14:36] - T-Swift makes the Fed’s Beige Book
[16:38] - Messi is just like us
Links
Ro: The stock market has Wall Street on its heels
CNN Fear and Greed Index
Peter Lynch: “I love volatility”
WSJ: Europeans are becoming poorer
Annual working hours across the world
Federal Reserve credits Taylor Swift with boosting hotel revenues through Eras Tour
Lionel Messi at Publix
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Jul 13, 2023
The Goldilocks Scenario
This week, we look at what comes from cooling inflation paired with a resilient economy. With the latest inflation numbers in hand, we’ll examine how shelter impacts the numbers, visualize the staggering amount of empty office space, and try to explain what’s going on at Disney.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - The latest inflation report and shelter’s role in the numbers
[04:21] - What are the “experts” saying?
[10:23] - The general economy vs. inflation
[11:37] - The empty office conundrum
[15:01] - What’s going on with Disney?
[20:04] - Tales from our first jobs
Links
WSJ: Inflation eased to 3% in June, the lowest since early 2021
Goldman: Fed tightening is in its final innings
Flight Rader 24: Busiest day for commercial aviation that we’ve ever tracked
Visualizing 1 billion square feet of empty office space
The empty downtown - a new normal
Boston offers tax breaks to turn empty offices into housing
Disney World hasn’t felt this empty in years
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
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Jul 8, 2023
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
As we wrap up the week, we take a look at the June jobs report and how it may affect the calls for recession and the Fed’s actions moving forward. We’ll also dissect movement in the electric vehicle, T-Bill, and housing markets and end with our takes on the great American summer blockbusters.
Key Takeaways
[00:27] - Looking at the newest jobs report
[7:15] - T-Bill yields are at their highest in over two decades
[10:34] - The implications of interest rates
[11:06] - Teslas and the electric car market overall
[16:22] - Could we see sub-3% mortgage rates again?
[20:30] - We put on our film critic hats to say what American movies need to do
Links
Ryan Detrick: Takeaways from the new jobs numbers
Mark Zandi: “The June employment report was close to perfect”
Current Truflation number
T-Bills are at their highest rate in over 20 years
CNBC: Least affordable car market in modern history
The top-selling EVs in the first half of 2023 in the US
WSJ: Rising EV inventory on…
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Jun 30, 2023
Heading Into Halftime of 2023
As we trot into the locker room at the halfway point of this year, we examine the competing ideology of calls for a recession vs. declining inflation leading to a bull market. We’ll also look at the economy’s resiliency, how America is viewed across the world, and the unprecedented play of Shohei Ohtani.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - Recapping the markets in the first half of this year
[11:04] - Positive milestones in the rental markets
[13:46] - The historical probability of market returns
[14:55] - Shohei Ohtani is a stud
[17:00] - How the U.S. is viewed globally
[20:26] - Will Mexico be the next big growth market?
[24:21] - America’s aging population
Links
Barry Ritholtz: What Recession?
Major milestones in the rental market
History says there’s a higher probability of the stock market finishing up 20% than down for the year
Ohtani’s 2 HR, 10K night
International public opinion of the U.S. remains positive
The US population is older than it has ever been
Connec…
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Jun 23, 2023
Betting on the U.S. Economy
This week, we start by discussing the biggest story in the news, the Titan Submersible tragedy. We’ll also look at the transformation of real estate and stock markets and examine the go-forward outlook of the U.S. economy vs. the World.
Key Takeaways
[00:22] - Recapping the Titan Submersible tragedy
[07:25] - The most expensive U.S. cities to buy a house in 1930
[11:42] - The evolution of participation in the stock market
[17:57] - Shifting from a historical to a current look at the markets
[24:24] - The U.S. economy vs the EU and the UK
Links
The booming business of trying to reach the ends of the Earth
More than 500 migrants presumed dead after shipwreck off Coast of Greece
A $49.99 videogame controller could have been running the Titanic submersible
10 things you may not know about the Great Depression
The “More Doctors Smoke Camels” ad campaign
The number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year
CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index continues i…
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Jun 16, 2023
Jerome Powell, Elon Musk, and Indiana Jones
We discuss the new CPI data, look back at what the experts predicted, and hopefully put the Fed conversation to rest. We’ll also talk about the potential fading of oil demand and ESG importance, and close with our favorite Indiana Jones movies.
Key Takeaways
[01:00] - Summarizing inflation data and the Fed’s reaction
[05:15] - Did experts see this coming?
[14:42] - Are we about to see oil demand begin to tamper?
[20:49] - Tesla, Bud Light, and the importance of ESG scores/public opinion
[25:09] - Our favorite Indiana Jones editions before the release of the new movie
Links
Fed pauses rate hikes after 15 consecutive months of increases
Price changes over the last year (CPI report)
Truflation is at 2.34%
Charlie Bilello: Did the experts see this coming? No.
Robert Kiyosaki (2/12): Giant crash coming
Bloomberg: Global oil demand growth will taper off over the next few years
Buffett is buying more Occidental Petroleum stock as oil prices near 2023 lows
Patrick Bet-Davi…
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Jun 9, 2023
Are Messi and Taylor Swift Recession Indicators?
This week, we discuss the two biggest stories in not only the sports world but the world at large. We also dive into how people are living and spending their money and what that could mean for a recession as well as give updates on the bond and oil markets and ChatGPT vs the S&P 500.
Key Takeaways
[00:58] - Messi’s unprecedented move to the MLS
[06:10] - The shocking LIV/PGA merger
[09:27] - What does it mean that we’re not seeing significant recessionary indicators?
[22:43] - Update on the oil markets
[24:04] - The importance of who you listen to for financial advice
Links
Messi sold more PSG jerseys last year ($130m) than total revenue for the top-earning MLS team, LAFC ($116m)
Messi turns down $400M per year contract from Saudis
Messi's deal includes profit sharing from Apple and Adidas
Players shocked and angry after LIV/PGA merger
Tiger Woods Was Offered LIV Golf Contract in $700M-$800M Range
Nick Timiraos: Goldman Sachs cuts recession probability down to 25%
S…
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Jun 2, 2023
Is AI the Bubble Du Jour?
Stokes’ Managing Partners start by revisiting a point from last week’s episode on down and sideways markets and whether they’re bullish or bearish on a go-forward basis. They’ll also join the discourse on the debt ceiling bill, look at the beginnings of what could be the era of AI, and continue the weekly Fed conversation.
Key Takeaways
[00:28] - Looking at our down and sideways market
[03:48] - What happened with the debt ceiling deal?
[10:20] - Are we entering the AI bubble era?
[21:39] - Our weekly Fed update
Links
Nick Maggiulli: Why Down & Sideways Markets are Bullish
Cullen Roche: CBO estimates debt ceiling deal will reduce the deficit by 0.2% of GDP
Market Sentiment: NVDA is trading at 37x its revenue (P/S) and 202x its earnings (P/E)
Charlie Bilello: Top May stock returns
Charlie Bilello: A look back at extremes price-to-sale ratios in 2020
Mark Zandi: Over 50% experiencing B2B sales declines
Bloomberg: Fed Signal for Rate Pause Takes Pressure Off Hot Jobs…
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May 26, 2023
Cheerio! Updates on the Market and a Trip to London
Before we head into the holiday weekend, Greg and Doug Stokes discuss why and how so much has happened over the last two years with very little market movement. They also talk about the possibility of a bull market quietly brewing during this time of consolidation and finish with a recap of Greg’s trip across the pond.
Key Takeaways
[01:25] - A 10,000-foot view of the market today
[07:09] - Truflation vs. what the government says about inflation
[08:46] - Is a new bull market quietly underway?
[16:43] - Greg’s economic observations of a trip to London
Links
Michael Green: USA Truflation down below 3%
Axios: Cheaper eggs are on the way
Jurrien Timmer: How to think like a bull
This forgotten Apple Co-Founder left an estimated $75 Billion on the table
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is…
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May 12, 2023
Advocating for Common Sense
Doug and Greg start this week by noting a pod prediction that came true in regard to the latest CPI/inflation numbers. They also look at current and past S&P 500 top 10 holdings to answer a hypothetical investment question on diversification vs. the big tech stalwarts. Finally, they prepare for the ramifications of the debt ceiling debate, check in on Russia/Ukraine, and look back at the results of the student debt moratorium.
Key Takeaways
[01:04] - Our weekly inflation check-in
[05:10] - Tech’s current hold on the S&P 500 top 10 holdings
[13:34] - Apple vs the World
[18:54] - Explaining the Debt Ceiling debate
[24:01] - An update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict
[27:39] - What we now know about the 2020 student debt moratorium
Links
BI: Inflation continued to cool in April
Truflation
Conor Sen: Owners’ equivalent rent — the turn-down has begun
Luis Gonzali: Top 10 S&P 500 Holdings since 1980
Brian Beal: Apple’s market cap is as large as every UK business combined…
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May 5, 2023
Taking (Another) Rate Hike
The Stokes Brothers are back this week to discuss their favorite topic, the Federal Reserve. They question the Fed’s decision to raise rates again, look at the latest bank failure, and examine how these occurrences may slow down the economy.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - A busy week with a rate hike and more bank failures
[08:54] - The effect of large bank failures on regional banks
[13:34] - The danger of being all in on a certain strategy or sector
[19:04] - The latest snippets from S&P 500 earnings calls/reports
[22:48] - Historical market returns when earnings are up and down YOY
Links
Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes
Truflation
Sven Henrich: 99.2% odds of rate cuts before the end of the year
Pranksters posing as Ukraine's president tricked the Fed chair into a phone call
Jim Cramer’s April 19th Western Alliance take
Federal government seizes First Republic Bank and sells to JPMorgan Chase
Ben Carlson: Regional Banking ETF retur…
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Apr 28, 2023
Sports Cards and Memorabilia with Author Steve Lane
This week, the guys are joined by a very special guest. Steve Lane is the author of Mickey Mantle: A Life In Memorabilia which chronicles the life and career of Mickey Mantle through the items in Steve’s extensive collection. They discuss his incredible Mantle items and how sports cards and memorabilia have now become a legitimate investment vehicle in what Steve calls the art of the 21st century.
Key Takeaways
[03:07] - How Steve got into collecting baseball cards
[04:35] - Why Mickey Mantle is such an important American figure
[10:54] - Steve’s most prized Mantle items
[15:30] - When/why did the memorabilia market take off?
[21:59] - Nostalgia vs. investment
[30:01] - Steve’s appeared on the “Talking Sopranos” podcast
Links
Steve Lane
Mickey Mantle: A Life in Memorabilia
Aaron Judge with Mickey Mantle’s glove
National Sports Collectors Convention
‘Talking Sopranos’ Superfan Episode
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office…
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Apr 21, 2023
The Glass-Half-Full View of What Could Be the Next Recession
After a Spring Break vacation, the guys are back in the studio to catch you up on all the financial happenings around the globe. They discuss how remote work and office space vacancies are affecting the commercial real estate market, how the residential market fluctuates wildly from coast to coast, and why we should be optimistic despite continuing recession rumblings.
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Apr 5, 2023
60% of the Time, It Works Every Time
The Stokes Brothers pick apart negative headlines we are seeing despite coming out of a positive first quarter. They also discuss the resurgence of Bitcoin, the emergence of AI, the effects of an aging population, and of course…the Federal Reserve.
Key Takeaways
[06:18] - Is there any merit to the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency?
[09:57] - Why is Bitcoin back up?
[12:09] - The speculative mania behind new tech like AI
[16:01] - What happens when the Fed stops its rate hiking cycle?
[22:00] - US vs International performance; a shift from growth to value
[27:05] - The financial impact of an aging population
Links
Ryan Detrick - S&P 500 gains after a >7% Gain Q1 Historically
Cullen Roche - Is the US dollar losing reserve status?
Jurrien Timmer - The final Fed tightening cycle historically
WP: How Silicon Valley Bank’s executives tweaked their risk model
JP Morgan: USA vs EAFE relative performance
Lawrence Hamtil
Charlie Bilello: the % of Americans 65 a…
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Mar 31, 2023
A Bull Market Is Built on a Wall of Worry
The guys take a look back at a crazy 1st quarter that has shown the market’s resilience. They discuss where the banking industry goes from here, how commercial real estate could factor into that, and how this first quarter was a classic example of why you stay invested in an equity portfolio through thick and thin.
Key Takeaways
[04:00] - What is market breadth?
[12:11] - Potential banking ramifications related to commercial real estate/office space
[18:04] - How do banking/lending standards change moving forward
[20:26] - The coin flip of the market’s movements
Quotes
“So this is that classic wall of worry. Essentially the saying goes that a bull market is built on a wall of worry, meaning that generally the people that are optimistic about markets turn a blind eye to the headline risk and continue to invest and buy and average into markets during times of turmoil are generally rewarded. This first quarter is a classic example of that.” - Doug Stokes
“Over the short te…
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Mar 23, 2023
It’s Fed Day (Again)!
The guys once again turn their attention to Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and what the Fed will do in the wake of the recent bank failures. They dive into the global effects of those collapses including what happened with Credit Suisse and then look at what we can learn from the cyclical nature of human behavior.
Key Takeaways
[03:59] - How do banks actually work?
[09:09] - How does the government determine what banks are “important”?
[10:50] - What happened with Credit Suisse?
[18:49] - Lessons learned from the repetition of human behavior
Quotes
“Banks are not going to want to loan in this environment with the fear that people may have a run on their bank too. They may be the next dominant fall. Lending is just going to be a little bit more stringent in this environment, which curbs economic growth because we're a credit-based society; businesses [and individuals] borrow money to invest and grow.” - Doug Stokes
“Just from a macro standpoint, even though it was absolute…
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Mar 15, 2023
The Run on Silicon Valley Bank
No doubt, you’ve heard about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. But do you know how it happened? Or why? Greg and Doug Stokes give these answers and more about how the government stepped in and what the biggest bank crash since 2008 means for the economy moving forward.
Key Takeaways
[01:41] - How the demise of Silicon Valley Bank really started in the COVID era
[06:24] - What a bank run looks like in the technological age
[11:28] - Where will the Fed go from here?
[18:01] - A look at current CPI and Trueflation numbers
Quotes
“This all just leads me to believe that a prudent strategic asset allocation approach and not trying to jump in and out is even more important nowadays because It seems like information, as quickly as it gets across the wires, prices move so quickly that somebody attempting to jump in and out of the market and saying, ‘look, I'm going to take a break until things settle down.’ It's almost impossible to do that nowadays because everything just boun…
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Mar 10, 2023
Jim Cobb, Best-Selling Author & Defense Attorney
This week’s guest is Jim Cobb, a New Orleans defense attorney and the author of the award-winning book, Flood of Lies: The St. Rita's Nursing Home Tragedy. Jim won two high-profile cases defending the owners of nursing homes in St. Bernard, LA and Hollywood Hills, FL. The trio discusses these trials, the state of today’s judicial system, and even Jim’s under-the-radar New Orleans restaurant recommendation.
Key Takeaways
[02:23] - How Jim was inspired — as an attorney — by the Boston Massacre story
[04:32] - The power of government and money in the U.S. justice system
[09:57] - The mob mentality & political outcry after nursing home tragedies in LA & FL
[16:54] - The probability of more weather-related tragedies
[19:29] - How money factors into being a defendant
[23:52] - The process of screening cases based on “win-ability”
[25:58] - Why it’s harder to defend someone you know is innocent
Quotes
[05:39] - “The only thing written on the front of the Supreme C…
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Mar 6, 2023
The Screeching Halt of the Housing Market
Back in the studio, the Stokes Brothers catch up after the Mardi Gras break. They examine why bad economic news is good news for the market and vice versa, and why the real estate market across the country has come to an abrupt halt.
Key Takeaways
[00:22] - Good news is bad news for the market and bad news is good news
[05:28] - Is now the right time to lock in long-term bonds?
[08:09] - A deep dive into the current real estate market
[16:38] - Tales from the slopes during Mardi Gras break
Quotes
[01:25] - “Interest rates are moving around like crazy at this point, and that's just the market trying to figure out where this is ultimately going to land with the Federal Reserve. I'm still in the camp that we're going to see continued declines in inflation.” - Doug Stokes
[12:40] - “My sort of base case is that there's just not going to be a whole lot of activity in housing, and either we're going to have sort of a sideways market in housing until rents sort of catch up, or…
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Feb 21, 2023
The Macro View with Rob Koyfman
In this week’s episode, the guys welcome on Rob Koyfman, CEO and co-founder of Koyfin. His company offers live market data and powerful analytical tools in a modern, intuitive format.
Rob, an expert at taking the macro perspective, discusses emerging markets, inflation, efficiency in the tech sector, and making industry-leading data available for everyone, no matter the size of the portfolio.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - A look at Rob Koyfman’s experience leading to founding Koyfin
[03:31] - Rob’s optimistic view about the macroeconomy right now
[09:18] - The macro look at emerging markets
[13:38] - The reality of shifting from oil and gas to renewable energy
[20:23] - Interest rates’ effect on tech investing
[23:09] - The tech culture of growth vs. efficiency
[29:01] - How Koyfin is bringing professional-grade analytics tools to the masses
[32:38] - Why there’s a lack of innovation from large companies like Bloomberg
[35:42] - Where does Rob see Koyfin in 3-5 years
Q…
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Feb 17, 2023
Keeping an Eye on the (Long-Term) Prize
As the Stokes Brothers prepare for Mardi Gras in New Orleans, they reluctantly continue their ongoing conversation about the Fed and inflation. They’ll also look at rolling 30-year returns and delve into the legacy of Charlie Munger and the uneasy future of crypto.
Key Takeaways
[00:35] - The calm before the New Orleans Mardi Gras storm
[03:16] - An update on inflation
[09:06] - Shelter and the annualized rate of inflation
[13:08] - The worst 30-year return over the past 100 years was a total gain of 850%
[17:10] - Our thoughts on Charlie Munger
[21:46] - Is the technology behind Bitcoin ripe for disaster?
Quotes
[06:14] - “I think what's happened is the market, on the whole, was surprised, positively, about the strength of the American consumer and the economy in spite of the fact that the Fed raised rates on the most rapid pace in history from basically nothing to where we're at right now. And the economy on the whole really hadn't slowed down.” - Greg Stokes
[13:08] -…
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Feb 8, 2023
Enhanced Diversification is the Name of the Game
The Stokes’ consistently lean toward the optimistic side of thinking, but this week, they’ll take a look at data/opinions on both sides of the coin.
The guys examine the national focus shifting away from the Fed and toward corporate profit margins, why companies becoming more efficient is a bullish sign for the economy, and how diversification is the right strategy no matter the economic outlook.
Key Takeaways
[00:35] - Recapping the earthquake in Turkey & Syria
[05:20] - Shifting the focus from the Fed toward corporate profit margins
[08:53] - Potential of a recession without a major crash in asset prices
[10:18] - Number of employees needed to make $1M in revenue now vs. 1990
[14:18] - A look at the other, more pessimistic viewpoint
[17:31] - The importance of diversification during economic downturns
[19:04] - The decline of amateur investors and day traders
[21:57] - How Chad Ochocinco saved millions buying fake jewelry and flying Spirit
Quotes
[09:44] - “Diversif…
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Jan 31, 2023
Investing Does Not Equal Gambling
In this week’s episode, Greg and Doug Stokes focus on the long-term success of the stock market and not getting caught up in the next big thing.
They’ll also take a look at tech companies shedding excess employee luxuries, the cyclical nature of trendy investment sectors, and the dichotomy of how inflation/employment news is viewed.
Key Takeaways
[01:15] - Corporations are shedding excess luxuries/amenities
[03:21] - The cyclical nature of the “hot” industries
[06:06] - Are AI and Machine Learning the next big investment sector?
[08:29] - The Warren Buffett philosophy of buying businesses
[12:43] - Investing ≠ Gambling longterm
[20:31] - Inflation is coming down, China is coming back
Quotes
[010:44] - “It could be a cryptocurrency or a tech stock, or some software, etc. And now all of a sudden people are saying, wait, when are these businesses going to earn money? When are they going to pay dividends? As soon as that particular mindset shifts, then the Warren Bu…
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Jan 24, 2023
Listening to What the Market is Actually Telling Us
While the negative narratives swirl, Doug and Greg Stokes look at the actual data to find encouraging signs in the markets.
The guys also examine the latest tech layoffs and what they mean for the macro economy and they question why people listen to “investor gurus" and why pessimism is seen as a sign of intelligence today.
Key Takeaways
[01:15] - High-growth tech companies are very sensitive to change
[03:13] - Tech layoffs vs. the macro employment data
[07:37] - A day in the life of a tech company employee
[11:01] - S&P 500 growth indices: tech vs. energy
[12:07] - S&P 500 above the 200 day moving average
[17:00] - Should we give credence to investment “gurus”?
Quotes
[03:55] - “Bull markets climb a wall of worry, and every negative headline can be exacerbated into something that's doomsday worthy.” - Doug Stokes
[20:46] - “Having an optimistic mindset with the understanding that things happen over time and having diversification built into the portfolio…
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Jan 17, 2023
Preparing for a Soft Landing
Could we be looking at a year with a soft landing where inflation comes down without major economic pain? Greg and Doug dive into the potential of that outcome and the Fed’s role in it. They also look back on the EU energy crisis and its fear-based narratives and discuss how emotions/human nature affect the cycles of investment.
Key Takeaways
[01:30] - The potential for a soft landing
[02:50] - Rent as a portion of CPI
[05:08] - What to expect from the Fed’s rate hiking cycle
[08:32] - Looking back on the fear-based narratives surrounding the EU energy crisis
[11:36] - European vs U.S. Investments over the past 15 years & since the Ukraine invasion
[14:04] - How emotions, sentiments, and narratives affect investment cycles
Quotes
[15:41] - “In bull markets, everyone wants to own what's working. And in bear markets, nobody wants to own what's not working. That mindset just shifts. It's the greed component. And that mindset shift from greed to fear is pretty amazing to…
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Jan 10, 2023
Looking Past the Narrative in 2023
Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. In this 1-year anniversary episode, Greg and Doug recap 2022 and look forward to 2023. They dig deeper past the forecasts and narratives to find factual reasons to be optimistic. The guys also discuss the importance of diversification across sectors and why pre-election years are historically bullish.
Key Takeaways
[01:10] - A recap of 2022
[05:19] - A historical look at the S&P500 during pre-election years
[08:26] - Reasons to be optimistic in 2023
[13:35] - The wide range of potential financial outcomes this year
[14:47] - Diversification - ranking returns by sector
[20:00] - Venture capital fundraising
[23:33] - Predictions on the Federal Reserve’s role in 2023
Quotes
[04:17] - “The sentiment is bearish…that we're entering an imminent recession. The Fed is trying to introduce higher unemployment and trying to bring the economy down in order to temper inflation. That is the narrative at this point in time, and I'm sure that…
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Dec 27, 2022
Exploring the Relationship Between Freedom and Markets with Perth Tolle
This week’s guest is Perth Tolle, the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes and creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index (FRDM index). This freedom-weighted equity strategy is the first of its kind and uses personal and economic freedom metrics as primary factors in its investment process.
Doug and Greg chat with Perth about how/why she came up with the ETF, how the strategy performs vs. the market cap-weighted benchmarks, the risks of autocracies, China’s role/exposure, ESG, and more.
Key Takeaways
[00:23] - About Perth Tolle
[01:02] - The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM)
[05:34] - Perth’s experience in China shaping her ideals
[06:16] - Autocracy risks for emerging market investors
[10:38] - The investment idea behind emerging markets
[12:21] - What is freedom weighting?
[12:56] - Human Freedoms Index: Civil, Political, Economical
[14:00] - Composite Country Scores
[14:47] - Taiwan is the #1 freest merging market
[15:29] - Direct vs. indirect allocation/exposure to Chi…
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Dec 20, 2022
Recapping a Wild 2022 & Looking Ahead to 2023
The Holidays bring lots of gifts, and one that we look forward to each year in the financial world is the upcoming year’s forecasts. On this week’s episode, Greg and Doug examine and discuss 2023 outlooks from several of the world’s largest asset managers. The guys take stock of a wild 2022, give their own predictions for next year, and debate how recency bias annually plays into these prognostications.
Key Takeaways
[01:33] - BlackRock’s 2023 Global Outlook
[04:30] - Historical rebounds after market declines
[05:34] - 10-Year Bonds vs. CDs
[08:00] - Vanguard 2023 bond market outlook
[10:35] - International markets and the Euro vs. the Dollar
[13:34] - JP Morgan 2023 outlook
[17:28] - Today’s price of oil
[18:00] - Our takeaways from these 2023 predictions
[20:00] - Bonds from the long-term planning perspective
[21:22] - 2023 market predictions
[24:17] - Next year’s housing market
[26:39] - How recency bias affects forecasts
Quotes
[04:21] - “After you've…
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Dec 13, 2022
Che! Tales from Argentina and Tips on Year-End Tax Planning
In this week’s episode, Greg recounts his recent trip to Buenos Aires, from the food, geography, and people to their current financial situation. He speaks on the local impact of their economic struggles as well as investment opportunities and their incredible opportunity to make changes.
The guys also delve into year-end tax planning which is especially important this year due to the performance of mutual funds. They give tips on looking at your fund families' capital gains distributions and whether you should do some tax-loss harvesting before now and the end of the year.
Key Takeaways
[04:25] - Can you eat steak for each meal, every day?
[05:18] - The conversion of Argentina into a nationalist/socialist country
[06:47] - How 100% annual inflation affects the local people
[7:44] - The current state of the Argentinian economy
[13:09] - Investment opportunities in Argentina
[15:36] - The inefficiency of actively-managed mutual funds
[16:32] - Taxable capital gains
[17:23] -…
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Dec 6, 2022
Return on Character With Dan Cooper
What effect does the character of a CEO have on a company’s performance?
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk to Dan Cooper, Founder & CEO of ROC Investments. After working with Presidents, CEOs of large public companies, philanthropists, and extraordinary leaders from around the world, Cooper founded his firm with a character-based investment strategy, creating a model to quantify the character and integrity of public company CEOs. Focusing on the four pillars of character (integrity, responsibility, forgiveness, and compassion), the model is based on a Fred Kiel/Harvard Business Review Study that proved that high-character CEOs outperform low-character CEOs by 5x as return on assets.
The guys discuss Dan’s incredible story, from his work in returning Afghanistan to its people to his attempt to build the first standard gauge railway for the Tanzanian Central Corridor. They also dive into how his character-based model performs and his thoughts on taking a quantitative versus quali…
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Nov 29, 2022
Getting Caught Up in the Cryptocurrency Hype
The cryptocurrency industry is one of the most volatile and unpredictable industries in the world. In just a few short years, the industry has gone from being relatively unknown to being worth billions of dollars.
The recent drama surrounding the FTX cryptocurrency exchange is a cautionary tale for the industry. It is a reminder of how quickly things can go wrong in the Wild West world of crypto and how easy it is for investors to get caught up in the hype.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about one of the latest and biggest market events, the fallout of cryptocurrency. As a part of the weekly news digest, the two also speak about inflation and how the FTX's fallout repeats history.
Key Takeaways
[00:53] - Two potential outcomes in today's economic climate.
[02:06] - Greg's take on a good inflation print.
[04:41] - The FTX fallout.
[08:32] - What the new CEO of FTX has to say about FTX's bankruptcy.
[10:30] - The experts' take on what's holding up inflation at this point.
[…
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Nov 22, 2022
The New Orleans Sports Scene with Scott Kushner
In this episode, Doug and Greg take a little break from the usual marketing discussion and talk about some other exciting things, basketball, and football. They are joined today by Scott Kushner. Scott is a leading expert on New Orleans sports and a columnist for The Times-Picayune. He is also the co-host of the Polk and Kush podcast, covering New Orleans' teams with a bend away from stats and bold takes.
Scott talks with Doug and Greg about the Pelicans, Tulane football, and the Saints. Aside from sharing his thoughts on New Orleans sports, he also speaks about where he sees the city's sports scene going.
Key Takeaways
[02:31] - How far the Pelicans are from winning a championship.
[04:34] - What Zion Williamson means to his team.
[08:33] - Future impact of the trade in the NBA on the Pelicans.
[11:19] - Scott's vision for the Pelicans in the future.
[16:24] - What Scott thinks about the Saints and their potential.
[19:24] - How Scott explains the Saints' failures during the Dr…
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Nov 15, 2022
The Silver Lining in Today's Economy
There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of a recession in recent months. While it is impossible to know for sure what the future holds, there are still silver linings to be found.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about how global investment managers view the market, how the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action, and the silver lining in today's economic climate.
Key Takeaways
[00:25] - An overview of the 2022 midterm elections.
[03:21] - Global investment managers' view of the market.
[06:21] - How the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action.
[10:51] - The outlook for recession among global investment companies.
[14:11] - How the economic slowdown affects tech companies.
Quotes
[07:34] - "Just a reminder to people that whatever the message you receive from the Federal Reserve, I would not take that as gospel by any means. They are all just human beings trying to interpret data." ~ Doug Stokes
[09:06] - "Even the people appointed to…
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Nov 8, 2022
A Positive Outlook During the Economic Downturn
Recent years have been tough on the economy. Many challenges have led to a slowdown in the global economy. Despite the negative impact of the economic slowdown, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Tough times don't last forever, and the economy will eventually recover.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about what financial experts have to say about inflation, the slowdown of today's economy, and how the global markets have been performing in the past weeks.
Key Takeaways
[01:45] - What financial experts have to say about inflation.
[05:28] - The slowdown of today's economy.
[11:21] - A decline in the growth rate of big tech companies.
[15:12] - An aspect of the economy that is positive.
[17:59] - A look at the scenarios facing Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
[20:29] - How the global markets are doing after 43 weeks.
[23:48] - The best thing people can do in today's market.
Quotes
[05:00] - "We manage portfolios based on people's lifetime cash flow needs and build buffers…
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Nov 1, 2022
The Increasing Drawdowns in the Stock and Bond Markets
The stock and bond markets have seen some wild swings over the past few weeks. This has caused large drawdowns in the stock and bond markets and a great deal of pain for international economies. While the increasing declines in the market may have a negative impact in the short run, they are likely to have a positive impact in the long run.
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how people feel about the current state of the market, the increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets, and update on the economic situation around the world.
Key Takeaways
[01:14] - Some good news in the market today.
[03:18] - How people feel about the current state of the market.
[07:05] - The impact of market volatility on someone nearing or in retirement.
[08:31] - The increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets.
[12:36] - What Greg and Doug think about where we are in the economic cycle.
[15:15] - An update on the economic situation in big countries.
[19:50] - The impact of the U.…
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Oct 25, 2022
A Difficult Year for the Economy and Markets
The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride this year, and unfortunately, it has mostly been going down. This has made a lot of people very anxious about their investments and future. Bonds have also been performing poorly, adding to the anxiety. How should investors respond to current market conditions?
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how stocks and bonds have performed poorly this year, how people react to today's market conditions, and how Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario.
Key Takeaways
[00:20] - Market performance for the past week.
[02:20] - How stocks and bonds are performing poorly this year.
[06:48] - How people react to today's poor market conditions.
[10:59] - Why today's market conditions aren't comparable to the 1970s.
[15:03] - The impact of higher mortgage rates on homeowners and renters.
[17:04] - How Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario.
[19:07] - Doug's thoughts on the wealth quote b…
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Oct 18, 2022
Crisis in the Global Economy
A growing number of experts believe that a recession is looming on the horizon.
This week, Greg and Doug look at the importance of being prepared for the dips while remaining focused on the brighter days to come.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Recent headlines on the global economy.
[06:01] - What surveys say about the economy and the market.
[11:17] - What analysts have to say about the current state of the market.
[14:27] - Insights into how bull markets and bear markets work.
[15:40] - The impact of high mortgage rates on the housing market.
[20:00] - What it takes to survive a possible recession.
Quotes
[03:38] - "The markets are hoping that data provides the Fed an excuse to pivot or get more dovish and not continue down the path of raising rates. The jobs report that came out on Friday did the opposite." ~ Greg Stokes
[06:56] - "The Federal Reserve is trying to push the economy into a recession, which means having corporate profit margins cut substantially, and corporate earning…
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Oct 11, 2022
Market Review, Speculations, and Outlook for Financial Markets
The market has continued to be volatile over the last month. This situation has left many investors wondering what they can expect in the coming weeks and months. Despite speculation surrounding investment banks, the financial market, and the housing market, many experts believe there is potential growth in the long term.
In this episode, Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes talk about the market performance over the last month, the speculations surrounding investment banks, and their outlook on the financial and housing markets.
Key Takeaways
[00:31] - Why September's market performance was not good.
[05:02] - Speculation surrounding investment banks.
[07:13] - How the economic volatility over the last three years has been brutal.
[09:58] - What makes today's market exciting.
[11:43] - What makes the U.S. fortunate compared to other countries.
[16:56] - Greg's outlook for the housing market.
[21:55] - What financial experts have to say about the current market situation.
Quotes
[05:15…
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Oct 4, 2022
A New Path to Leadership Success with Michelle Johnston
Historically, leaders communicated with their employees in a transactional and hierarchical manner. However, these tactics no longer work in today's environment. The traditional, command-and-control leadership style is no longer as effective. What leadership techniques do effective leaders employ in the modern business and working environment?
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Michelle Johnston, a management professor, executive coach, and leadership expert who serves as the Gaston Chair of Business at Loyola University New Orleans. Author of “The Seismic Shift in Leadership,” Michelle emphasizes the need for leaders to shift from a command-and-control leadership style to one focused on connection.
Michelle talks with Doug and Greg about how leaders can get to the heart of their organizations, how human connection can drive better financial performance, innovation, and productivity, and what true connection is all about.
Key Takeaways
[00:54] - What Michelle's book, “The…
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Sep 27, 2022
The Impact of Inflation on Commodities, Businesses, and the Stock Market
Inflation is commonly discussed in terms of its impact on commodity prices. However, its effects go much deeper than that. Businesses, the stock market, and even interest rates are affected by it. As inflation ripples through the economy, what is the federal government doing to deal with this problem?
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about inflation trends and their associated risks. They speak about the impact of inflation on commodities, businesses, and the stock market, the federal government's response to inflation, and how treasury risk premiums affect various asset classes.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Doug and Greg's market forecast for this week.
[04:04] - Trend in inflation and its associated risks.
[06:59] - How Doug and Greg design portfolios.
[08:47] - The impact of inflation on commodities and services.
[13:47] - The federal government's response to inflation.
[16:23] - How the risk premium to treasuries affects various asset classes today.
Quotes
[04:19] - "There ar…
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Sep 20, 2022
Multi-Generational Wealth Stewardship with Jason Baker
For centuries, families have passed down their wealth from one generation to the next. However, with the modern-day challenges, the need for a more formalized approach to multi-generational wealth stewardship has never been greater.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jason Baker, a former NFL punter who is now the CEO and Partner at Paterson Center. This organization helps individuals and organizations be very intentional about their strategy and performance. After going through a life plan with one of the best strategic planning facilitators, Jason found clarity in the next act in his life. Today, he got licensed to hold all the Paterson licensing in his private practice.
Jason talks with Doug and Greg about how he transitioned from playing football to owning a consulting firm, what Paterson Center can offer clients, and his approach to creating a life plan for families with different dynamics.
Key Takeaways
[01:07] - A brief overview of Jason's NFL career.
[04:43] - How Jaso…
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Sep 13, 2022
The Beauty of Investing in Real Estate with Drew Pearson
Real estate has long been considered an attractive asset class by investors for several reasons. This investment offers many benefits, including high returns, stability, and inflation protection. With real estate investing being an excellent way to diversify portfolios and build wealth over time, what are some of the investment strategies that can take advantage of these opportunities?
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Drew Pearson, the Managing Partner at Pearson Partners. Drew began his commercial real estate career at Latter & Blum in Baton Rouge in 2008. He moved to a boutique firm, Waters & Pettit, in 2011 and became a top-selling agent there within a few years. In 2015, Drew began to work at Promanas, where he served as head of acquisitions helping the firm to grow to over $250M of real estate asset value.
Drew talks with Greg and Doug about his journey to becoming a real estate investor. A self-storage investor and developer himself, Drew speaks about why self-storage is…
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Sep 6, 2022
The Unforeseen Consequences of ESG Investing
The focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has grown in recent years as more investors are looking to put their money into companies that align with their values. While this investment can positively impact the world, some unforeseen consequences come with it, especially in a tight supply chain.
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about the recent updates on markets and economies. Focusing on the impact of the increased price of energy, they speak about the result of Europe's shift towards renewables, the unforeseen consequences of ESG investing, and the risks associated with ESG investing in a tight supply chain.
Key Takeaways
[00:34] - Recent updates on markets and economies.
[04:46] - How the rising cost of electricity in Europe affects the global economy.
[08:36] - Doug's thoughts on international and domestic market returns.
[12:50] - Why investing in the US is still a better option.
[14:31] - ESG investing and its unforeseen consequences.
[18:58]…
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Aug 30, 2022
Inflation Trends and The Stock Market
The stock market is often seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, with movements in share prices reflecting changes in underlying conditions. For this reason, analysts closely watch stock markets for clues about future inflation trends. While inflation has been one of the most feared economic events, periods of high inflation have often been followed by bear market rallies. What does this phenomenon mean, and how does it impact investors?
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about inflation trends, the bright side of all of the issues facing the U.S. and the international community, and the importance of time and quality assets in investing.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Recent trends in commodity prices.
[01:50] - Inflation trends, CPI, and the price-earnings ratio.
[06:12] - How U.S. stocks outperform international stocks.
[08:39] - The bright side to all issues facing the U.S. and the international community.
[13:49] - The importance of time in investing.
[15:15] - How rea…
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Aug 23, 2022
Debunking Market Myths
What are the narratives in the market? Bullish or bearish? This is a question that is always on the mind of investors. The stock market is constantly bombarding investors with news, analysis, and commentary, and it can be overwhelming to try to make sense of it all. However, looking at the market narratives from a different perspective can give you a better understanding of what is happening in the market.
In today's episode, Greg and Doug debunk market myths. They explore the market narratives through a different lens by looking at the news, analyst opinions, and price action.
Key Takeaways
[02:15] - How the markets have rebounded recently.
[06:16] - How the markets are doing better today than they have ever been.
[08:57] - Why the current mortgage rate is unpleasant for homebuyers.
[13:37] - What an inverted yield curve means from a market perspective.
[18:34] - Why investing early in life is important.
Quotes
[06:57] - "Things are better now than they've ever been. From a s…
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Aug 16, 2022
Jamaul Ford: Combining Entrepreneurship With Service in New Orleans
In this episode, Jamaul Ford, a serial entrepreneur in New Orleans who runs High Level Speech and Hearing Center with his wife, Dr. Lana Joseph-Ford, talks with Greg and Doug about launching a product-based business alongside a service-based venture, the R&D behind Jamaul and Lana’s product Jrumz, why culture is invaluable within big and small operations, and the challenges and opportunities associated with launching a business in New Orleans.
Key Takeaways
[00:23] - A brief introduction to Jamaul.
[00:46] - How High Level Speech and Hearing Center came to fruition.
[04:28] - What the High Level Speech & Hearing Center looks like today.
[06:35] - Why Jamaul and Lana developed Jrumz.
[10:27] - Why Jrumz has a better sound quality than AirPods.
[11:55] - What challenges Jamaul and Lana overcame starting their business versus launching a consumer products company.
[16:02] - How to transition from direct-to-consumer to retail outlets and distribution.
[17:55] -…
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Aug 9, 2022
Predicting Our Economic Future
This week, Doug and Greg discuss the confusing state of today’s economy, their predictions for economic growth and recovery years down the line, how the Feds can successfully avoid an economic recession, which parts of today’s inflation might stick around, and what you can control financially in a time of mass financial uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
[00:22] - What Greg’s thoughts are on Lisbon, Portugal vs. Madrid living.
[03:55] - Are we in a recession or not?
[08:31] - What the economy may look like one year from today.
[13:24] - How to translate recent earnings reports.
Quotes
[04:45] - “The economy and the markets are two distinct things. The economy might be in a situation where it’s in a recession but the markets typically are forward-looking.” ~ Greg Stokes
[15:20] - “If [the Feds] can somehow figure out a way to have a soft landing, which is what they’re trying to do by slowing down the economy, slowing down spending without causing a recession, I think t…
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Aug 2, 2022
Spending, Statistics, and Why Midterms Matter
This week, Doug and Greg discuss how consumers and big business are responding to sky-high inflation, which income bracket is struggling the hardest and which brands are selling out faster, the bright side to a recession in vibes, why midterms matter, and why despite it all, the market is up.
Key Takeaways
[00:16] - What inflation means for consumer spending and where prices have (surprisingly) gone down.
[05:29] - Why despite the constant bad news, the market is looking up.
[15:12] - A guessing game for Greg.
[19:54] - Why midterm years matter.
Quotes
[10:00] - “Things are bad, but the market ebbs and flows and generally overcorrects on the downside and overcorrects on the upside, and people that stick with a game plan end up working out.” ~ Doug Stokes
[10:16] - “One of our clients told me one time that things are never as good or as bad as they seem. And you’re right, things have seemed very bad lately.” ~ Greg Stokes
[13:39] - “I’m optimistic on the futu…
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Jul 26, 2022
Positivity and Problem Solving with Richard Chen
This week, Richard Chen talks with Doug and Greg Stokes about overcoming obstacles and becoming a successful attorney, what the ultimate value-add is for both Rich and the advisors he serves, what prompted Rich to launch his own firm, and how Rich experiences life to the fullest without eyesight.
Key Takeaways
[01:12] - A brief introduction to Rich.
[03:48] - Rich’s journey with sight.
[04:44] - How Rich operates a law firm without sight.
[06:15] - How Rich remained competitive in school and his field despite physical disadvantages.
[07:50] - What life is like in the Azores.
[08:35] - Where Rich likes to travel and his day-to-day rec routine.
[10:32] - A typical day in the life of Rich Chen.
[11:58] - Why Rich launched his own firm.
[13:54] - How Rich perceives natural beauty without physical sight.
[16:03] - What country transformed Rich’s perspective.
[17:36] - What values are most important to Rich.
Quotes
[03:34] - “It’s a real privilege to…
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Jul 19, 2022
Optics, Opportunity, and the Stock-Based Psyche
This week, Doug Stokes and Greg Stokes discuss the state of corporate America, why stock-based investors should treat dividends like rent, the fluctuation of global currency, and why the Federal Reserve is stoking your recession-based fears.
Key Takeaways
[00:31] - What to make of the dividends increase per share versus price increase per share.
[05:15] - What the current housing market means for a potential recession.
[08:42] - Why it feels like a recession is approaching.
[11:39] - The implications, opportunities, and root causes of the decline in value of European currency.
Quotes
[02:06] - “If you were a real estate investor, even though the value of your property was down you probably didn’t know it. If your rents were up 14% over the last twelve months – you wouldn’t really care what the actual value of the property was. The same thing should apply to stock-based investing. In the case of dividends appreciating by 14%, even though the value has fluctuated, a…
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Jul 12, 2022
Understanding America’s History and Modern Markets
This week, Doug Stokes and Greg Stokes discuss the unique and successful American experiment, what’s going on with the U.S. housing market, when inflation will eventually end, and what they believe is an even bigger issue than inflation itself.
Key Takeaways
[00:47] - What the American experiment (and America itself) means to Greg and Doug.
[10:51] - The state of the U.S. housing market.
[16:15] - What Doug believes inflation will look like one to two years from now.
[18:48] - When will this bear market end?
[21:07] - What’s priced into the market, what the market believes will happen, and what Greg thinks will actually happen coming out of this period.
Quotes
[13:18] - “The last major recession was a housing-led recession and a housing crisis which led to a global financial crisis. And I think people are looking for the same signs of cracks in the system in housing and I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. I think this is probably a manufactured slowdown…
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Jul 5, 2022
Creating Financial and Humanitarian Change with Jonathan Shafer
In 2008, as a recession raged on in America, Jonathan Shafer believed it was time to make a difference elsewhere. After meeting a family searching for someone to launch an investment strategy company in West Africa, Jonathan jumped on the opportunity. Planning to be in Africa for only one year, Jonathan and his family ended up staying for seven years.
Despite its challenges, Jonathan saw tremendous opportunity in Africa, both financially and through humanitarian work. Given that 600 million people in Africa don’t have access to power, investing in renewable energy became Jonathan’s primary focus, creating flourishing financial returns as well as a powerful impact on the lives of native civilians.
Today, Jonathan’s efforts in Africa total more than $215 million of invested capital, and include ventures such as Fortis Green Renewables, a firm investing in renewable energy assets throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, and CommonGood Capital, a financial services company focused on global…
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Jun 28, 2022
Funding Contentment with Brian Portnoy
The happiness and contentment we feel surrounding money doesn’t end with the number in our bank account. Take it from Brian Portnoy, founder of Shaping Wealth, a financial wellness company that helps clients make smarter financial moves. Brian understands the psychology behind financial decisions as much as he does the strategy behind investment.
For instance, as human beings, we instinctively compare ourselves to others, seeking comfort in status and discomfort when our social media is flooded with 18-year-old billionaires rich off crypto. But how can we learn to mute the comparison triggers all around us? And why do growth-focused goals keep us grounded?
Brian talks with Doug and Greg about navigating the comparison landscape, why money is still taboo, why unlimited freedom has led to increased paralysis, and the difference between being rich and being wealthy.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - An introduction to Brian.
[01:11] - Why Brian believes money is a taboo subject.
[02:32] -…
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Jun 21, 2022
Wes Gray: Merging Education, Investing, and the Marine Corps
After spending years going through a tough academic program, one dissertation away from achieving a degree, Wes Gray chose to take a step back and join the Marine Corps. Following five years of service, Wes finished his degree at The University of Chicago, studying under the acclaimed Eugene Fama.
While working as a professor, a cold call from a billionaire in New York prompted Wes to begin moonlighting as an internal due diligence agent. That decision to take on a second job became his inspiration for Alpha Architect – an asset management firm committed to empowering investors through education.
In this episode, Wes talks with Doug and Greg about why Alpha Architect is abnormal, the method to their madness, how Wes challenged Eugene Fama (and nearly won), how Alpha Architect is responding to today’s volatile markets, and what the future looks like for value investors.
Key Takeaways
[01:24] - How Wes transitioned from professor to founder of Alpha Architect.
[04:50] - Why…
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Jun 14, 2022
A Crash Course on Crypto with David Chase
It’s no secret that cryptocurrency has been a trending point of contention for financial experts and the general public. But is it worth the hype or a bubble waiting to burst? David Chase of Crescent City Capital has become an expert on the subject. But David’s desire to explore crypto was not for the sake of hopping on a fintech fad.
Spending his early career learning the nuances of central bank policy, David had a hunch there was a better way to regulate policy. After diving into the subject, cryptocurrency became that solution.
So after a year of exclusively trading crypto, David launched Crescent City Capital with his partner Hunter Metcalf. The firm’s goal is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and David’s personal belief is that crypto is not only here to stay, but is fundamentally irreplaceable.
In this episode, David talks with Doug and Greg about why crypto solves the problems most currencies encounter, the future of Bitcoin and blockchain technology, how any…
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Jun 7, 2022
Life and Money Through a Latin American Lens with Ian Bezek
Sometimes, the best places to invest are the places no one’s looking. Ian Bezek has become an expert on under-the-radar places to spend his time and invest his money. Having spent the last eight years living in South and Latin American countries, he’s an advocate for exploring countries that cost less for a higher quality of life. Not to mention, he’s diving headfirst into the international markets and is here to share his tips for investing overseas.
Rather than looking where everyone else is (literally), Ian focuses on compounding businesses, companies constantly growing their earnings, companies with nearly irreplaceable assets, and businesses becoming leaders in a “boring” sector. He values companies with exit ramps and hand railings over those with high-speed glass elevators and no red exit sign in sight. His stocks may not be the sexiest, but Ian’s peace of mind and the performance of his portfolio remain intact.
In this episode, Ian talks with Doug and Greg about…
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May 31, 2022
Family Business Done Right with Vito Cinque
At the heart of Il San Pietro in Positano, one of Italy’s – and the world’s – finest hotels, is a family business with a fascinating story. Il San Pietro was built by Carlino Cinque when Positano was a simple fishing village. Carlino’s family believed him crazy for pursuing a life outside their home and even had Carlino impeached for his entrepreneurial aspirations. Luckily Carlino overcame obstacles and his grand hotel came to fruition.
Today, Vito Cinque co-owns Il San Pietro with his brother Carlo, the third generation to take the reins and help their family’s legacy live on. The hotel has become an architectural feat – existing on the precipice of one of Positano’s infamous cliffs. Each room has a view and a beautiful terrace. While a room is a luxury, the staff become like family and your stay is always a consistent, trip-defining experience.
But there’s an art to maintaining luxury with family by your side. Greg and Doug talk with Vito about transforming the…
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May 24, 2022
Learning From Our Past: Who to Trust and When to Buy
What would you do with a family fortune? Taking a hard look at the downfall of the Vanderbilt dynasty tells us a few things about wealth, purpose, and the importance of a trusted financial advisor.
History can tell us what to expect during unpredictable global events, how bear markets typically come to a close, and the surprising similarity between institutional and retail investors.
This week, Doug and Greg why wealth alone won’t buy happiness, what the market corrections of the past mean for today’s turbulent fluctuations, and why “professional” investors aren’t immune to emotional influence.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - Money lessons from the Vanderbilt curse.
[11:19] - What a history of market corrections should mean for your perspective on an upcoming bear market.
[15:48] - How a bear market may end.
[20:13] - Actively managed strategies versus index-type strategies.
Quotes
[08:14] - “I just think that lack of purpose and lack of direction leads to lack of w…
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May 17, 2022
Beating Your Brain and Investing Smart
While times may feel unsteady and unpredictable, if you take a look through history, you’ll see these very market fluctuations repeated, time and time again. The tricky part is convincing your psyche to invest during a downtime when the market’s on sale. So how can you override your human instinct to hoard cash in a downturn? And when will there be resources available to prevent ourselves from acting on less than financially favorable inclinations?
This week, Doug and Greg discuss their point of view on today’s crazy markets, the long-term implications of rising interest rates, why it’s best to avoid anxiety over unpredictability, and how to retrain your psyche to make smarter financial decisions.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - An intro to this episode, the joys of family vacations, and Doug’s guide to wine tasting in Sonoma.
[09:07] - Why New Orleans is a great place to be.
[13:10] - How Greg and Doug view today's markets, who can best take advantage of the volatility,…
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May 10, 2022
Predicting an Unpredictable Market
Bull or bear? Always the question and (almost) always difficult to answer. Especially in 2022. Between the Russia-Ukraine invasion, rising interest rates, and spiked inflation, the markets have been up and down. And it’s incredibly difficult to take a hint from what’s happening when deciding whether to invest or play it safe.
Given today’s turmoil, it’s important to consider what’s worked in crisis markets of the past and what indicators signal it’s time to “go long” with your investments. CNN, Vanguard, and BlackRock have different ideas on where things are headed, short-term and long-term. But is it always best to trust the investor experts? And if so, which experts should you trust?
This week, Doug and Greg discuss what rising fear and uncertainty mean for today’s tricky markets, why now is the best time to look overseas for property purchases, how to manage rising inflation, and why the best investors don’t always dish out the best financial advice.
Key T…
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May 3, 2022
Inside the Mind of a Homebuyer and a Look on the Bright Side
Despite dealing with the aftermath of a global pandemic, an unpredictable stock market, and record-breaking inflation, life in 2022 may not be as bad as you think it is. 150 years ago, the richest people in America didn’t have easy access to basic commodities like air conditioning and ice, not to mention apps that deliver food and streaming services playing everything you can imagine.
Rising interest rates, higher mortgage payments, and a low inventory can make it feel like a crazy time to be buying a house right now. But real estate has more value than just a percentage point and, like all major decisions in life, there are several factors at play when deciding to buy a home.
This week, Doug and Greg discuss why it’s easier to stay optimistic than you might think, the best way to manage client expectations regardless of the times we’re living in, and why rising interest rates don’t necessarily throw a wrench in your real estate plans.
Key Takeaways
[00:59] - Why there…
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Apr 26, 2022
Staying Sane Through Volatile Markets
If the past few months have reminded us of anything, it’s that market volatility is constant and unpredictable. With the spread of information accelerating faster than ever, global volatility now matches that of the market in (seemingly) real-time.
So it’s no surprise that such upheaval takes a toll on our psyche as investors. But if there’s one thing we can predict, it’s that volatility isn’t going anywhere and we have to prepare for it, financially and mentally.
Although it sounds like an oxymoron, there are ways to prepare for the unpredictable. And there are ways to protect yourself psychologically, even if those protections go against popular financial advice.
This week, Doug and Greg discuss how to combat the psychological strain of volatile markets, why the market reacts the way it does to world disaster, and what the yield curve tells us about a recession in 2022.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Why taking time to travel (with your spouse) is important.
[06:50] - Why…
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Apr 19, 2022
The Opportunity in Opportunity Zones with Joe Truhe
With America more divided than ever before, few things have the power to bring together both sides of the political spectrum. The Opportunity Zone program is one of those rarities specially designed to satisfy political opposites. Not to mention, dramatically improving the community around us.
But some businesses and individuals are hesitant about holding an investment for 10 years, or maybe they only remember the policy’s flawed origin story. An expert on all things Opportunity Zones, Joe Truhe from Jefferson Capital Partners is here to demystify the program’s complexities and core benefits.
In this episode, Joe talks with Doug and Greg about the benefits – both financial and humanitarian – of the Opportunity Zone program, including how the program manages to merge oppositional thinking, how OZs work in practice, and why the program fits perfectly within Jefferson Capital’s core strategy.
Key Takeaways
[00:52] - What are Opportunity Zones?
[02:30] - How the Opportun…
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Apr 12, 2022
Becker Hall and Barrett Cooper: Why Audiences Still Crave a Live Experience
If there’s one industry that’s been uprooted since March 2020, it’s live entertainment. Just as leaders within tourism and hospitality have struggled to regain ground, runners of festivals and owners of live theaters have unleashed a wheelhouse of creativity just to stay afloat and continue serving the communities and artists around them.
In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Becker Hall, CEO of Hogs For The Cause, and Barrett Cooper, COO of ERG Enterprises.
Although Becker manages the unpredictability of live outdoor events and Barrett the difficult task of positioning The Orpheum as a go-to experience, they’ve both developed unique ways to offset inflation, navigate a growing labor shortage, and encourage consumers to leave their living rooms for an in-person escape.
Greg and Doug talk with Becker and Barrett about staying afloat during a global pandemic, navigating an unpredictable return to live events, what’s necessary to survive in the live entertainment business…
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Apr 5, 2022
Russian Invasion: Ramifications on Inflation and the Markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis that’s gripped the globe. While difficult to comprehend on a human level, the economic impact of a widespread European conflict can be equally as complicated to unpack.
From inflation to rising gas prices to seemingly unpredictable markets, the state of our economy is enough to make most panic. Luckily, understanding why the Russian-Ukraine conflict has increased inflation and what our government is doing to combat rising costs can dissolve some of that panic.
This week, Doug and Greg discuss the recent market volatility and ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unpacking why globalization impacts interest rates, the surefire way to combat market volatility, and why it’s pointless to panic about an imminent economic recession.
Key Takeaways
[00:39] - What Doug thinks about today’s volatile market.
[07:35] - Why a recession may be on the horizon.
[10:31] - How much of inflation is demand-driven versus supp…
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Mar 29, 2022
Economic Development and Trends in New Orleans with Peter Ricchiuti
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Peter Ricchiuti, Founder and Director of Burkenroad Reports.
Peter started Tulane’s nationally acclaimed student stock research program Burkenroad in 1993. Since then, he has mentored hundreds of students about underpriced and overlooked stocks in southern states. Before that, Peter also served as the Chief Investment Officer for the state of Louisiana.
Peter talks with Doug and Greg about overlooked stocks, the impact of the pandemic on the decline in birth rate, and trends in the markets of different states, especially New Orleans.
Key Takeaways
[03:30] - Stock Under The Rocks.
[04:40] - The Burkenroad Mutual Fund.
[07:46] - Peter’s insights on the future of the markets.
[09:01] - How COVID sped up the progress of inflation.
[15:56] - What’s the Baltic Dry Index?
[17:06] - What happens after an inverted deal curve?
[22:05] - How big is the impact of the top six companies?
[24:16] - Why you should not focus on the market-cap-we…
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Mar 22, 2022
Understanding Argentinian Markets with Santiago Solanet
Argentina just struck a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to give the South American country some “breathing space” for the next few years to pay off debt. From an Argentinian expert’s perspective, how is it looking for the economy and more importantly, to its people?
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Santiago Solanet, Senior Investment Analyst at BlackTORO Global Investments. Santiago is known for monitoring and analyzing the local and global economic situation of the Argentinians.
Santiago talks with Doug and Greg about understanding Argentinian markets—from the recent IMF agreement to peso depreciation to its political environment.
Key Takeaways
[00:41] - Beyond the markets: the life and rich culture of Argentina.
[03:51] - Peso currency depreciation.
[08:55] - What's it like to do business in Argentina?
[11:19] - Insights on the effect of war with the UK, soybean prices, and inflation.
[15:59] - How does a country turn around a 50% year-over-year…
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Mar 15, 2022
Examining Historical Investment Cycles with Jamie Catherwood
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jamie Catherwood, Client Portfolio Associate at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. Jamie has a deep fascination with and expertise in finance history. Throughout the years, he’s shared finance content that goes in-depth to help investors make better and more evidence-based financial decisions.
Jamie talks with Doug and Greg about the importance of financial history in strategizing portfolios, and insights on innovation entering deep value territory.
Key Takeaways
[02:30] - Parallels between the current market and the past.
[05:01] - What does history tell us about the change in behavior of retail investors?
[07:49] - What's the Kindleberget Minsky Cycle?
[09:06] - The Price Conviction Paradox.
[12:35] - The Golden Age of Fraud
[ 13:57] - Historical investment cycles.
[17:35] - Where can the market go wrong?
[23:35] - Are innovation stocks in deep value territory?
[26:25] - What is the bubble triangle?
Quotes
[33:27] - “I think that…
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Mar 8, 2022
Understanding Inflation and Countercyclical Indexing with Cullen Roche
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Cullen Roche, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Discipline Funds.
Aside from advocating for rebalancing portfolios with low-fee, tax-efficient funds, Cullen also writes about the macroeconomy and investing strategies through his blog, Pragmatic Capitalism. Cullen also advises on the overall impact of inflation in the current market.
Cullen talks with Doug and Greg about inflation, economic cycles, and countercyclical indexing with ETFs.
Key Takeaways
[00:47] - What causes inflation?
[03:02] - How COVID impacted the direction of inflation.
[07:08] - Bank reserves vs. direct payments to individuals.
[09:40] - Has the inflation already peaked?
[13:35] - Are inflation and inflation rates correlated?
[20:16] - Hyperproductivity in the US economy.
[23:31] - How inflation negatively impacts everybody.
[26:40] - The midterm elections and market predictions.
[34:06] - Cullen’s insights on portfolio allocation.
[39:25] - Is global…
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Mar 1, 2022
Political Uncertainties and Market Conditions
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the effect of electoral party systems and politics on the markets, and the promising investment opportunities in New Orleans.
Key Takeaways
[00:42] - How do politics affect the markets?
[05:11] - How the market behaves amid political uncertainties.
[07:59] - Why markets don’t like uncertainties.
[12:06] - Current living conditions in New Orleans.
[18:03] - Promising investment opportunities in New Orlean.
Quotes
[03:48] - “That's the beauty of the American system, right? There are always ebbs and flows between one party or another, or one prevailing ideology or another. It's a good or a bad thing politically, but generally, a moderation between one party or the other is good in my opinion.” - Doug Stokes
[07:59] - “Markets don't like surprises. For example, we all saw that in March of 2020, when the world was coming to an end—the stock prices were falling off a cliff because there was so much uncertainty.” - Greg Stokes
Links…
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Feb 22, 2022
Diversification, ESG Investing, and Inflation
Doug and Greg talk about why the cure to inflation is inflation, and why US stocks continue to outperform international stocks.
Key Takeaways
[00:28] - 2022 kicks off with a consumer price rise.
[05:31] - Why Doug believes the Federal Reserve is very market-facing.
[09:49] - The cure to inflation is inflation.
[12:13] - Efficient automobiles: from gasoline to electric.
[13:04] - What is ESG investing?
[14:12] - The rule of the commodity market.
[15:50] - What's a commodity supercycle?
[16:54] - Who's the biggest performer in recent inflation?
[18:13] - Why is it important to diversify?
[20:44] - Annualized return from the US compared to international countries.
[23:58] - Why the market and tax administration is a great factor in US relocation.
[27:48] - Why the state of California tops most rankings.
Quotes
[14:32] - “In 2012, emerging markets were up and commodities were down. In 2013, small-cap US stocks were up big and emerging markets were down. The whole id…
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Feb 15, 2022
Investing vs Speculation: Tempering the Blockchain Hype
In this episode, Doug and Greg discuss everything you need to know about the blockchain, cryptocurrency, and digital assets—its speculative market, its stance against looming inflation, and its promise to be the currency of the future.
Key Takeaways
[00:42] - The triple threat of policy tightening.
[02:05] - Insights on unemployment during COVID.
[06:04] - The need for focusing on continued ability to grow amid the pandemic.
[07:40] - What transpired in the downfall of Peloton?
[10:38] - Why old-world, bottom-up investing may be the way to go.
[13:04] - Are bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hedged against inflation?
[16:08] - Should you invest in blockchain stocks?
[17:32] - What's promising about blockchain?
[18:04] - How blockchain-based companies work.
[19:37] - Cryptocurrency as fiat money.
[21:04] - What's the future for digital assets and crypto?
Quotes
[04:15] - “In the last 10 years, I would imagine that people are hitting their retirement objectives earli…
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Feb 8, 2022
Rate Hiking Cycle, Housing, and Business As Usual In 2022
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the rate hiking cycle as we enter 2022, the truth about debt and the affordability of housing, the impact of monopoly capitalism, and the new business investor mindset amid a pandemic.
Key Takeaways
[00:55] - Ken Fisher’s insights on the rate hiking cycle of 2022.
[03:51] - There is no rule of thumb in markets.
[06:29] - Debt and affordability in housing.
[08:25] - How Amazon remains on top.
[09:47] - How the smallest Airpods became as big as all of Tesla.
[14:33] - The “COVID is airborne” newsbreak and its market implications.
[18:31] - How to do business as usual amid COVID.
[21:11] - The impact that relatively safety has had on society.
[24:44] - Why new parents should opt for automated savings.
Quotes
[03:51] - “There is really no rule of thumb in markets. If you think about it, do you really think that the collective knowledge of the millions and millions of investors that are participating in markets are not aware that…
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Feb 1, 2022
The Impact of Financial Forecasting and Market Corrections
Investors’ decisions are mostly based on financial predictions made by so-called experts. So, when the news broke that we were about to enter a pandemic, investors and advisors were in shock. How do investors move forward when modern society is suddenly afflicted by an uncontrollable peril like COVID-19?
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the risks of poor financial forecasting, the truth about market corrections, and the true indicators for smart investing practices.
Key Takeaways
[02:03] - Why is forecasting in finance becoming a nightmare?
[03:47] - What forecasts and projections really tell you.
[05:47] - Omicron’s impact.
[09:52] - How COVID-19 has been affecting investors’ and advisors’ daily lives.
[12:30] - Why is it impossible to forecast in finance?
[15:29] - Why the bond market is always the best guide.
[17:11] - Two factors that affect inflation.
[18:36] - Why corrections are normal.
[25:10] - How forecasting works in sports.
Quotes
[10:26] - “…
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Jan 22, 2022
Introducing: Lagniappe!
Lagniappe is a new podcast hosted by Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes, brothers and partners in Stokes Family Office, a New Orleans wealth management firm.
Lagniappe is a word derived from the South American Spanish phrase la yapa, which means “a little something extra”. Although this is an old custom, it is still widely practiced in Louisiana.
We created this podcast to be a little something extra for our listeners, friends, and clients. We want to share some of our passions and insights about life in New Orleans, as well as how we run our business, manage portfolios, and thoughts about what’s going on in the world of finance and financial planning. We also have some great guests lined up to talk about their specific areas of expertise.
Join us each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and more.
Our first episode drops in January 2022. Subscribe now, wherever you listen to podcasts.
Links
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family…
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