Global Exchanges
BMO Capital Markets
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BMO’s FX Strategists, Greg Anderson and Stephen Gallo, offer perspectives from strategy, sales and trading on the foreign exchange market, related financial markets, and the global economy.
To view show transcripts, please visit http://bmocm.com/GlobalExchanges.
For legal disclosure, visit http://www.bmocm.com/macrohorizons/legal
Available episodes
Newest first
Oldest first
1 day ago
Headfakemania
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent the price action in foreign exchange surrounding central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB, and Bank of England. We reflect on why central bank signaling seems to have lost its influence over FX and propose alternative macro catalysts for the days and weeks ahead.
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Jan 17, 2023
The Surprisingly Front-Loaded Dollar Decline
In this week's episode, we talk through the ongoing downtrend in the US dollar, with particular mention of where things might go from current levels in EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY.
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Dec 20, 2022
Tinkering or Tightening? - The BoJ's Late-Year Surprise
In this abbreviated episode, we offer a preliminary reaction to the BoJ's surprise decision to tinker with the parameters of its yield curve control mechanism.
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Dec 13, 2022
Season's Musings
In this week's episode, we look back at the biggest surprises in FX markets and related fundamentals in 2022. We will also offer preliminary thoughts on potential surprises for 2023.
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Nov 29, 2022
Things We're Watching Into Year-end
In this week's episode, we home in on the 1M horizon, which now brings us to the end of calendar year 2022. We share our thoughts on the latest developments in RMB, GBP, USD, and CAD.
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Nov 22, 2022
As the FX World Turns - The 2022 Episode
In this week's episode, we discuss so-called “turn pressures” that are manifest in the movement of implied yields embedded in FX forward points of various different currencies. This discussion features a special guest: BMO FX forwards trader James Topham.
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Nov 8, 2022
The Long and Bumpy Rounded Top
In this week's episode, we discuss the latest movements in the broad US dollar with particular focus on the euro, British pound, Chinese renminbi, and Japanese yen.
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Oct 27, 2022
How Many Interventions Does it Take?
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments related to the yen, the renminbi, the euro, and the Canadian dollar.
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Oct 18, 2022
Fourth Quarter Flareup Risks
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments related to the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Chinese Renminbi.
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Oct 13, 2022
Breaking News in FX
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments in the US dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, and some of the G10 commodity currencies. In particular, we analyze whether the FX market is 'breaking'.
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Sep 20, 2022
Central Bankers in Pressure Cookers
In this week's episode, we discuss the key factors facing central banks with meetings this week along with potential outcomes in terms of policy and FX responses. We go through the situations facing the Fed, BOJ, BOE, and PBOC.
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Sep 13, 2022
Equilibrium, Terminal, and the Dollar Cycle Turning Point
In this week's episode, we discuss potential terminal rates for this cycle for G10 central banks and how they may differ from long-run equilibrium rates and what they may mean for foreign exchange. We also explore how the euro might react to a sudden peace in the Ukraine War.
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Aug 30, 2022
Is Currency Defense Worth It?
In this week's episode, we discuss recent policy signals from various central banks and associated movements in FX markets.
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Aug 23, 2022
Parity, Powell, and the Persistence of USD Strength
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments in the FX market and a few key upcoming events.
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Aug 9, 2022
Is Powell a Maverick?
In this week's episode, we discuss an analogy of the situation facing the Fed Chair Powell and other central bankers, along with FX market implications.
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Jul 26, 2022
Parity Party Postponement and Other Asundry Issues
In this week's episode, we discuss some of the key issues for the FX market during the dog days of summer, including the persistence of above-average volatility, the softening of oil prices, and the modest relief rally in the euro.
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Jun 21, 2022
An Emerging Divergence
In this week's episode, we discuss the reasons why the Mexican peso and Chinese renminbi have diverged so sharply in 2022. We give our thoughts on how long, and to what extent, this divergence can continue. We throw this out as one of our favorite summer trades--noting that it is a trade that should benefit in the event that oil continues to move higher.
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Jun 14, 2022
What Breaks Next?
In this week’s episode, we discuss recent signs of distress in financial markets related to the rising US dollar, rising oil prices, and uncertainty over central bank responses to these issues.
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May 31, 2022
Revisiting the USD Peak
In this week's episode, we discuss the pullback in the US dollar over the past two weeks and go through the macro stories behind it before looking at a few key exchange rates.
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May 17, 2022
Making Sense of Global Recession Risks
In this episode, special guest Jennifer Lee from BMO’s economics team joins Greg Anderson to discuss the slowdown in the global economy and the surge in global inflation.
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May 10, 2022
Peak USD? - It Will Depend on the RMB!
In this episode, we discuss the ongoing USD rally, ADXY weakness, and their potential feedback effects on the Fed.
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Apr 26, 2022
Stresses in Intra-Asia FX
In this episode, we discuss noteworthy FX moves over the past week and what they may mean going forward, with particular emphasis on the Chinese renminbi and Japanese yen.
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Apr 19, 2022
Does the FX Market Need an Intervention?
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in the yen and euro and offer a bit of loose speculation ahead of this week's G7 and G20 meetings along the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.
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Apr 12, 2022
Sometimes It's Hard to Know What You Want
In this episode, we discuss recent developments in the valuations of the Japanese yen, Korean won, Canadian dollar, and euro.
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Mar 29, 2022
Contrasting Forces in Euro and Yen Again
In this episode, we discuss the shocking weakness exhibited by the yen over the past few days as manifest by the move in USDJPY above 125. We also discuss the influences that have led to the pop above 1.11 in EURUSD.
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Mar 22, 2022
The EURJPY Rally Makes No Sense
In this episode, we discuss the surprising evolution of exchange rates over the past week, with particular focus on the strange concoction of influences that has led the EURJPY exchange rate to rise by 3%.
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Mar 15, 2022
Asian Currencies Take a Tumble
In this episode, we discuss the biggest FX moves over the past few days, which are in USDJPY, USDRMB and correlated Asian currencies.
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Mar 8, 2022
All Crossed Up By the Invasion
In this week's episode, we take a walk through the FX landscape as a result of the events in Ukraine. The point of our survey is to identify currency pairs that have either moved too much as a result of those events or that haven't moved enough given the shifts in related financial prices and underlying economic fundamentals.
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Feb 22, 2022
China's Role as King Counterweight Persists
In this week's episode, Stephen Gallo is joined by BMO's Colin Hamilton, for an in-depth discussion of China's role as a global macro counterweight to numerous phenomena which have persisted in the global economy — but externally to China. This 2-year long counterweight dynamic doesn't seem to be in its end stages yet, so this week's episode covers the implications for the foreign exchange markets and specific commodity prices.
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Feb 15, 2022
Watershed Elections in Key Markets
For this week's episode, Greg Anderson is joined by special guest Frank White, an EM FX Trader. Greg and Frank preview elections later this year in two countries: Brazil and the Philippines.
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Feb 8, 2022
ECB Hawks Want In to the Global Tightening Club
In this week's episode, we discuss the surprising hawkish evolution we saw from the ECB last week and the potential impacts on the Euro and broader FX markets.
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Jan 25, 2022
Vol Spike with FX Pending
In this week's episode, we discuss the reasons that financial markets have quickly shifted to a high-volatility regime before taking a stab at why the FX market isn’t (yet) showing the same uptick in realized and implied volatility.
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Jan 18, 2022
The Disconnect Between Commodity Prices and Commodity Currencies
In this week's episode, we discuss the generalized rise in commodity prices thus far in 2022, and contrast it to the move in G10 commodity currencies. We go through potential reasons for why commodity currencies haven't rallied alongside commodity prices.
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Jan 11, 2022
Key Themes for January
In this week's episode, we discuss the evolution of major exchange rates over the first few trading sessions of 2022 and the background issues underneath them.
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Dec 14, 2021
As the FX World Turns
In this week's episode, we are joined by James Topham to discuss the phenomenon frequently referred to as "turn pressures" in the FX forwards market.
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Nov 30, 2021
Omicron and Currency Market Crosscurrents
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent sharp moves in EURUSD, USDYEN, and a few other exchange rates.
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Nov 23, 2021
2021’s Full Circle in USDCAD
In this week’s episode, we discuss the rally above 1.27 and the evolution of the key fundamental drivers of this exchange rate.
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Nov 16, 2021
Diagnosing the Declining Euro
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent drop in the Euro along various crosses.
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Nov 9, 2021
Whiplash in Sterling and Yen
In this week's episode, we discuss two noteworthy recent momentum reversals in the FX market.
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Oct 26, 2021
Euro-China at a Three-Year Low
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent moves in the euro and the Chinese renminbi that have combined to push the Euro-China cross down to 7.40.
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Oct 19, 2021
Early Apogee for the Dollar?
In this week's episode, we talk about the 1% decline in broad US Dollar indices over the past week, the potential causes for this reversal in momentum, and what this might mean for the outlook for the remainder of 2021.
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Oct 13, 2021
Euro Out of Gas
In this week's episode, we talk about the meteoric rise in natural gas prices in Europe, and what that should mean for the Euro.
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Sep 28, 2021
Q4 Laundry List
In this week’s episode, we discuss the list of issues that seem to be driving FX this week and may continue to do so for the rest of 2021. We tackle 5 of the most important macro and political developments.
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Sep 21, 2021
Evergrande: Turning Point for China or Tempest in a Teapot?
In this week's episode, we are joined by Art Woo to discuss the Evergrande situation and what it might mean for China's economy, Chinese financial markets, and global FX.
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Aug 25, 2021
September Election Intrigue
In this week’s episode we discuss the potential FX market implications of two big elections coming up in September: the German four-yearly federal election and the snap Canadian federal election.
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Aug 17, 2021
What We’ve Learned in the 50 Years Since Bretton Woods
In this week's episode, we look back at the moment fifty years ago this week when the Bretton Woods System began to crumble because the US suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. We discuss key lessons learned over the past fifty years of floating exchange rates with an eye forward to what those lessons might teach us about the future.
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Aug 10, 2021
Is There a Policy Shock that can Break the Summer Doldrums?
In this week's episode, we discuss the price action in foreign exchange over the last few weeks along with recent central bank signals. We also discuss a couple of the key monetary policy events upcoming later in August.
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Jul 20, 2021
The Two-Phased U.S. Dollar Rally
In this week’s episode, we discuss the price action in foreign exchange over the last month, along with associated fundamental developments.
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Jul 6, 2021
Normalization Down Under
In this week’s episode, we discuss today’s RBA policy announcement and what the market is pricing in for the RBNZ. We contrast those currencies to a few ADXY currencies.
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Jun 29, 2021
Crude Realities for Foreign Exchange
On today's episode, we discuss the first half of 2021's most shocking financial price move and its implications for FX.
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Jun 23, 2021
What's Behind the Hype About Month-End
In this episode, we explore the FX seasonality known as the month-end effect, which is basically the spike in FX volume that occurs on the last business day of the month. We are joined by FX sales specialists Alice Bentley and Kate Stothers.
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Jun 8, 2021
The Long Road to Neutral
In this week's episode, Greg Anderson and Stephen Gallo talk about the long list of central bank policy meetings in June and what they may mean for FX markets over the summer.
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May 25, 2021
Renminbi at a Crossroads
In this episode, we discuss the break in USDCNH below 6.40, along with its causes and implications.
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May 18, 2021
Inflation and FX Depreciation Spirals
In this episode, we discuss the continued rally in global commodity prices, the associated sharp uptick in inflation numbers in some countries and the renewed downdrift in the US dollar.
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Apr 27, 2021
Sticker Shock in USDCAD
In this episode, we discuss this week's move below 1.24 in USDCAD and some of its implications for Corporate Canada. We are joined by Brad Schruder, an FX Sales Specialist who works with Canadian corporations of various sizes across many industries.
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Apr 20, 2021
EUR Up, but WHY?
In this episode, we discuss the surprising rally in the EURUSD exchange through 1.20 and associated moves in other pairs.
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Apr 13, 2021
Drifting Without a Catalyst
In this episode, we discuss the fading themes from Q1 and the lack of a clear dominant theme for Q2.
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Mar 30, 2021
Beware of Precarious Yen Weakness
In this episode, we discuss the extraordinary decline we’ve seen in the Japanese yen in the first three months of 2021 and the flows behind it.
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Mar 23, 2021
Emerging Market Divergences
In this episode, we discuss two interesting developments in emerging economies around the world. The first is capital inflows and associated reserve accumulation. The second is how the rise in global oil prices has impacted the inflation and monetary policy outlooks.
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Mar 16, 2021
Asia-Pacific Currencies and the Commodity Spike
In this episode we interview BMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton. Topics discussed include the causes of this year’s spike in base metals prices and the market implications of China’s new 5-year economic plan.
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Mar 9, 2021
EURCAD at 1.50 and Still Normalizing
In this episode we discuss the recent move down to 1.50 in the EURCAD exchange rate and the fundamental drivers that we think are behind it. We also discuss this week’s ECB and BoC policy meetings. We give our outlook for the two central banks’ policy paths through the end of the year along with our outlook for EURCAD.
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Feb 23, 2021
G20 in a New Era – In Search of Common Ground
In this week’s episode, we discuss background issues and pertinent details regarding this week’s virtual meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers. We give our latest views on the US dollar, euro, Canadian dollar and Chinese renminbi.
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Feb 11, 2021
Trailer
Global Exchanges launches next week.
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