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FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
2 days ago
Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?
Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.
1 hr 3 min
6 days ago
The Great Inflation Debate
According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.
Jul 19, 2021
Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?
Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.
1 hr 3 min
Jul 15, 2021
Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling
We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.
Jul 12, 2021
A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?
The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”
Jul 8, 2021
Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away
Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.
Jul 6, 2021
What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020
Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.
Jul 2, 2021
What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term
On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.
Jun 28, 2021
Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan
A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.
Jun 24, 2021
Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions
Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.
Jun 22, 2021
What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation
The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.
Jun 17, 2021
Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race
Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.
Jun 14, 2021
The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections
The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.
1 hr 3 min
Jun 10, 2021
How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics
During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: America’s Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."
Jun 7, 2021
One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms
Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.
1 hr 3 min
Jun 4, 2021
How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party
In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.
Jun 1, 2021
The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up
The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."
1 hr 9 min
May 27, 2021
What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us
New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.
May 24, 2021
A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death
History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.
May 20, 2021
20 Questions With Nate And Galen
Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.
May 17, 2021
Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?
The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.
May 13, 2021
Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'
Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of…
May 10, 2021
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?
What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations?
May 6, 2021
How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior
The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."
May 3, 2021
Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas
The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.
Apr 29, 2021
Biden's First 100 Days
The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.
Apr 26, 2021
A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority
The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030.
Apr 22, 2021
Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.
Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics.
Apr 19, 2021
Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay
The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989.
Apr 15, 2021
How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer
We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.
Apr 12, 2021
Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan
The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys.
1 hr 4 min
Apr 8, 2021
Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?
Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.
Apr 5, 2021
How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?
The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses.
1 hr 5 min
Apr 1, 2021
Elections To Watch In 2021
The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats.
Mar 29, 2021
Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy
The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term.
Mar 25, 2021
The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings.
Mar 22, 2021
The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically
The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades.
Mar 18, 2021
How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics
Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.
Mar 15, 2021
Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?
The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms.
Mar 11, 2021
Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?
With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill.
Mar 8, 2021
Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear
The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states.
Mar 4, 2021
How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics
This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBS’s recent documentary series “The Black Church."
Mar 1, 2021
Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?
The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.
Feb 25, 2021
What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs
Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.
Feb 22, 2021
Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular
The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.
Feb 18, 2021
How The Crisis In Texas Happened
Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises.
Feb 16, 2021
Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump
Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom.
Feb 11, 2021
The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument
While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications.
Feb 8, 2021
What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do
Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020.
Feb 4, 2021
What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?
Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought.
1 hr 2 min
Feb 1, 2021
Biden's Response To The Pandemic
Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters.
Jan 28, 2021
The Final Model Talk Of 2020
Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward.
Jan 25, 2021
Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda.
Jan 20, 2021
The Biden Presidency Begins
On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.
Jan 19, 2021
Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?
This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.
Jan 13, 2021
Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment
On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.
Jan 11, 2021
What Led To The Attack On The Capitol
The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.
1 hr 12 min
Jan 6, 2021
What Will The GOP Do Now?
The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.
Jan 4, 2021
Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia
The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.
Dec 28, 2020
Goodbye To 2020
In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."
1 hr 6 min
Dec 21, 2020
Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States
The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.
1 hr 6 min
Dec 17, 2020
What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?
Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.
Dec 14, 2020
Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over.
1 hr 1 min
Dec 10, 2020
What's The Deal With Pardons?
Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.
Dec 8, 2020
The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP
The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
Dec 3, 2020
How To Make Polls Better
Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.
1 hr 13 min
Nov 30, 2020
What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?
The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
Nov 23, 2020
Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy
Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.
Nov 19, 2020
Will Georgia Stay Blue?
Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.
Nov 16, 2020
What Divided The Electorate In 2020
The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
Nov 12, 2020
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.
Nov 9, 2020
Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand
The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.
Nov 7, 2020
Biden Is Set To Be The Next President
The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
Nov 5, 2020
Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency
As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
Nov 4, 2020
Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer
After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
Nov 4, 2020
The Election Isn't Over
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.
Nov 2, 2020
Final Reflections Before The Election
In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.
Nov 1, 2020
What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us
Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.
Oct 31, 2020
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic
Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.
Oct 30, 2020
Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters
This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
Oct 29, 2020
The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election
There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
Oct 28, 2020
How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020
In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
Oct 27, 2020
How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election
Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
Oct 26, 2020
October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections
The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
Oct 23, 2020
Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
Oct 23, 2020
The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
Oct 21, 2020
How Voting Is Going So Far
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
Oct 20, 2020
The Most Competitive Races In 2020
Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
Oct 19, 2020
Embrace The Uncertainty
The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
Oct 16, 2020
Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
Oct 15, 2020
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
Oct 12, 2020
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate
The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
Oct 9, 2020
Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
Oct 8, 2020
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate
The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
Oct 5, 2020
What We Know About The President's Health
During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.
Oct 2, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Oct 1, 2020
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.
Sep 30, 2020
Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate
The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
Sep 28, 2020
The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns
The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.
Sep 24, 2020
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
Sep 21, 2020
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.
1 hr 4 min
Sep 19, 2020
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.
Sep 18, 2020
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate
FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
Sep 14, 2020
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.
Sep 11, 2020
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Sep 8, 2020
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting
The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"
Sep 3, 2020
Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.
Aug 31, 2020
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha
The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.
Aug 28, 2020
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words
The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 27, 2020
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 26, 2020
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 25, 2020
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Aug 21, 2020
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy
The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 20, 2020
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 19, 2020
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 18, 2020
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Aug 12, 2020
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
Aug 11, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
Aug 10, 2020
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
Aug 3, 2020
It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Jul 30, 2020
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump
Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
Jul 27, 2020
Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
1 hr 8 min
Jul 23, 2020
The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
Jul 20, 2020
There Aren't Secret Trump Voters
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
Jul 16, 2020
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
Jul 13, 2020
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
Jul 9, 2020
Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
Jul 6, 2020
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jul 2, 2020
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
Jun 29, 2020
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
Jun 25, 2020
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
Jun 22, 2020
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
Jun 18, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
Jun 15, 2020
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
Jun 12, 2020
The Protests Appear To Be Working
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
Jun 8, 2020
Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises
The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
Jun 4, 2020
Protests, Then And Now
Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
Jun 1, 2020
The Data Behind Police Violence
Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
May 28, 2020
What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
May 26, 2020
Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
1 hr 2 min
May 21, 2020
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
May 18, 2020
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
May 14, 2020
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
May 11, 2020
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
May 8, 2020
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
May 4, 2020
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
Apr 30, 2020
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Apr 27, 2020
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Apr 22, 2020
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
Apr 20, 2020
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
1 hr 2 min
Apr 16, 2020
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
Apr 13, 2020
Our 2020 Election Priors
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Apr 8, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Apr 6, 2020
Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Apr 2, 2020
Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Mar 30, 2020
Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
Mar 26, 2020
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
Mar 23, 2020
How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
Mar 20, 2020
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
Mar 18, 2020
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote
FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
Mar 16, 2020
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Mar 15, 2020
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Mar 11, 2020
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Mar 9, 2020
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Mar 6, 2020
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Mar 5, 2020
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Mar 4, 2020
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
Mar 2, 2020
What's At Stake On Super Tuesday
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
Feb 29, 2020
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
Feb 26, 2020
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
Feb 26, 2020
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Feb 23, 2020
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 20, 2020
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Feb 18, 2020
Can Bloomberg Win?!
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Feb 14, 2020
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Feb 12, 2020
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Feb 10, 2020
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
1 hr 10 min
Feb 7, 2020
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
Feb 5, 2020
The Results In Iowa
The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Feb 4, 2020
Chaos In Iowa
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Feb 2, 2020
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Jan 31, 2020
Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
Jan 29, 2020
When Women Run
To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
Jan 27, 2020
The Sanders Surge
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
Jan 23, 2020
The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 22, 2020
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
Jan 20, 2020
Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
1 hr 13 min
Jan 15, 2020
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
Jan 15, 2020
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
Jan 13, 2020
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
Jan 10, 2020
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
Jan 9, 2020
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
Jan 6, 2020
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
Dec 30, 2019
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Dec 23, 2019
Eggnog And Listener Questions
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
Dec 18, 2019
The House Impeaches President Trump
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Dec 16, 2019
Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?
The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Dec 13, 2019
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
Dec 9, 2019
The Primary According To The Early States
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
Dec 4, 2019
The Legal Experts And The Polls
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.