The Weekly Insight
Andrew Dorr
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The Weekly Insight Podcast brings you weekly information about what you need to know about what is going on in the market every week.
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1 day ago
The Consumer's Not Done Yet
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-consumers-not-done-yet/
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Nov 20, 2023
Absolute Certainty
Market sentiment is a fickle thing. And there is no question that we want to be on the right side of that sentiment when things are humming along. But there’s risk in joining the herd, especially when there is perceived certainty about the outcome. This week we take a look at where certainty is popping up in the market (Fed policy) and why that should be a reminder to keep our heads on a swivel.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-absolute-certainty/
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Nov 13, 2023
Know Who You Are
As a firm based in central Iowa, our office is full of people who either love or hate the Iowa Hawkeyes. But even if you hate them, you have to admit that this football season has been fascinating. They have one of the worst offenses in history and have already locked in a share of the Big 10 West title. But what does this have to do with your portfolio? It turns out there are some important lessons we can learn from the offensively inept Hawkeyes about what it takes to be successful in the market.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-know-who-you-are/
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Nov 6, 2023
One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other
A few weeks ago, we talked about “immutable truths” in the world. Things that no one can argue about. And why – in financial markets – there really isn’t such a thing. We got a great reminder of that one Wednesday. Jerome Powell stepped to the podium after last week’s FOMC meeting and…wait for it…the market went UP! And it kept going up on Thursday and Friday. What in the world?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/*the-weekly-insig…t-like-the-other*/
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Oct 30, 2023
Beggars' Night
Tonight is Beggars' Night in Des Moines. It’s a unique Halloween tradition that was caused by a strange (and ineffective) solution to an age-old problem (misbehaving kids!). It reminds us a bit of the mess happening in Congress right now as we stare down yet another government shutdown in just 17 days. Are we going to get a spooky result?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-beggars-night/
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Oct 23, 2023
Why 2%?
There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world. History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs. But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated. That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation? Who came up with it?
The answer to this question might surprise you.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-why-2/
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Oct 16, 2023
Earnings and Israel
Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/
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Oct 9, 2023
Bond Bust
Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities. Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago.
But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak? That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bond-bust/
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Sep 25, 2023
A Position to Proceed Carefully
It was Fed week again. We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room. The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday. But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-to-proceed-carefully/
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Sep 18, 2023
Strikes and Shutdowns, Oh My!
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now. The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge. But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/
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Sep 11, 2023
The Red Dragon
There has been a lot of talk about China recently, highlighted by their newest move to ban iPhones for Chinese government employees. But the tale of the relations between the two largest economies of the world has been changing for some time now as our economic fortunes become less and less linked.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-red-dragon/
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Sep 5, 2023
Swifties Unite
This week, we look at some very interesting economic data that came out last week including: the impact of Swifties on consumer spending, a slowly normalizing labor market, and the impact hurricanes can have on the economy.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-swifties-unite/
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Aug 28, 2023
The More Things Change
Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated “Jackson Hole” speech on Friday. After last year’s hard-hitting speech on the inflation battle, this year’s comments were highly anticipated. Powell’s comments were much calmer this year, and the market loved them. But they also gave some signs about things to come.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-things-change/
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Aug 21, 2023
August Never Fails
August has not been the best month in the markets this year. Interestingly enough, that’s consistent with nearly 40 years of history as it ranks as the worst month of market returns going back all the way to 1986. But is this the start of something bad? Or is the market just taking a breath in our current bull rally.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-august-never-fails/
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Aug 14, 2023
The Base Case
It was inflation week again last week – the first of two before the next Fed meeting. And the results were interesting. Some called it a “hot” reading. Others thought it wasn’t so bad. But what we did see, in both CPI and PPI, was a slight tick up. But part of that is tied to the math around the “base case”.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-base-case/
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Aug 7, 2023
The Validity of the Public Debt
After months of the focus being on the Fed and interest rates, we got a surprise from left field: Fitch downgraded the U.S.A.’s credit rating. Given the “validity of the public debt” is quite literally written into the U.S. Constitution, it was a telling moment.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-validity-of-the-public-debt/
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Jul 31, 2023
Are We There Yet?
It was Fed Week last week, and the market was hanging on Jerome Powell’s words at the podium.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-are-we-there-yet/
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Jul 24, 2023
No One Cares
An interesting thing has happened since the Fed – against the belief of most of the market – announced they were going to raise rates twice more this year: no one cared. The market is up strongly since the last Fed meeting as inflation has fallen along with recession expectations. So what does that mean for this week’s Fed meeting (and likely rate increase)?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-one-cares/
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Jul 17, 2023
Embrace the Good
Last week was a remarkable week for the markets in that – as we anticipate another rate hike next week – we got some fantastic inflation and economic data.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-embrace-the-good/
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Jul 10, 2023
Data Dependent
We hope this week finds you well rested after the 4th of July Holiday! The market was a little sluggish last week as many on Wall Street were out for the break. But there was a lot of news from the Fed, and we are – bluntly – dumbfounded by some of their comments.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-data-dependent/
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Jun 26, 2023
Sufficient Enough
Chairman Powell went in front of Congress last week and made sure everyone got his message: more rate hikes are coming. And the market is taking note as we push for “sufficiently restrictive” interest rate policy. But what is “sufficient”? Is the Fed just intent on ramming us into a recession? Are we close to one?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-sufficient-enough/
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Jun 19, 2023
Threadin' the Needle
It was Fed Week last week. The long and short of it? Only Jerome Powell can make the first pause in rate hikes in 14 months seem like a punishment! But the market is handling it well. And we got substantively good inflation data last week to go with it. Take a look and let us know your thoughts!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-threading-the-needle
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Jun 12, 2023
Fattening the Bull
The big news last week was that the S&P has officially entered into “bull market” territory. That’s great news – and we’re never ones to look a gift horse in the mouth. But just how durable is this bull market? And what might throw it off track?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fattening-the-bull/
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Jun 5, 2023
This Close
One down, one to go. Washington walked us right up to the edge of a default debacle, but, in an extraordinary showing of bipartisanship, passed a debt ceiling deal that avoided catastrophe (and ensured we don’t have to worry about it again until 2025).
So now we’re on to the next problem: is the Fed done raising rates? We take a look at what’s coming for the Fed meeting next week.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-this-close/
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May 22, 2023
X-Date
The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/
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May 15, 2023
Super Core
It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/
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May 8, 2023
Cleared for Landing
It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic. But a funny thing happened after the meeting. Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real. And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-for-landing/
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May 1, 2023
Debt Ceiling Danger
Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday). So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling. This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-debt-ceiling-danger/
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Apr 24, 2023
True Hope vs. False Hope
We’re at an important inflection point for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The meeting coming up in just 9 days may be the most important of the whole cycle and the market is on edge about what the Fed will do next.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-true-hope-vs-false-hope/
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Apr 17, 2023
Some vs. Several
Wrapping up something like one of the quickest rises in interest rate policy in history was never going to be easy. But last week we started to see some of the most visible cracks amongst FOMC members on the correct path moving forward. What does this mean for markets over the coming weeks and months?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-some-vs-several/
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Apr 10, 2023
Ringing the Alarm on Social Security
It was a relatively quiet holiday week in the markets last week. We probably won’t be that lucky this week with the CPI data coming out on Wednesday. But we thought we’d take the break in the action to look at a much longer-term problem: Social Security. The trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund put out their annual analysis 10 days ago. It wasn’t pretty.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-ringing-the-alarm-on-social-security/
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Apr 3, 2023
Stumbling Blocks – Student Debt
It was a good week in the markets last week as fears of a major bank contagion subsided and continuing positive data on inflation rolled in. This pause in the "drama" gives us a chance to look into future risks and this week we look at the economic impact of the end of payment forebearance on student loans. It has the potential to be a big one.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stumbling-blocks-student-debt/
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Mar 27, 2023
So Close…and Yet So Far
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-so-closeand-yet-so-far/
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Mar 20, 2023
Loose
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-loose/
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Mar 13, 2023
Where's the Peak? Part 2
It’s easy to get swept up in the news. Last week was no different. Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress shook expectations for interest rates. But sometimes it is important to look back and see how trends are moving over the long-term, instead of getting wrapped up in the day-to-day.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak-part-2/
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Mar 6, 2023
I'm Lovin' It
We all have had formative experiences in our youth. Maybe it was that first job, or successes in academics or athletics. For the team at Insight, one of most memorable (not always in a good way!) experiences was our time working at McDonald’s. Everyone should have to flip a burger when they’re young. It teaches you a lot. But what we didn’t imagine at the time was that the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger might be able to tell us something about the economy and the markets.
Click here for the full length memo: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-im-lovin-it/
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Feb 27, 2023
Short Term Bias
There was a great deal of fretting in the market last week. Higher than expected PCE numbers, a renewed focus on Ukraine, and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on all indices. There is habit in the market of having a short-term bias – a focus on the latest news of the moment. But sometimes we need to peel back the onion and look deeper. In this week’s episode, we take a deeper look at the health of consumers and businesses – over the long-term – to see how they might be weathering the time we’re in. We hope you’ll listen in.
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Feb 20, 2023
What Goes Up
Three years ago this week was the first time we wrote one of these memos. 156 weeks – and 156 memos – later, we will be the first to admit it is sometimes hard to produce a topic to talk about each week. What is important? What will you – our readers – find interesting? Over the last several years, the entire world has been consumed by creating “content”. The financial media is no different.
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Feb 13, 2023
All Around The Margins
It has not exactly been a three-year period full of good news. It's understandable, then, when we have a good start to the year – as we have so far in 2023 – we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop. This week we want to dive into that “other shoe” and why, even if it does drop, we still think portfolios can have a strong recovery year. Let’s dive in.
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Feb 6, 2023
Hearing What We Want To Hear
There have been many “post-Fed” commentaries in these pages over the last year, an indication of just how important interest rate policy has been to the market and the economy. We’ve digested and expounded on countless Powell-isms and tried to read the tea leaves of where the Fed is going. Listen in to hear more on this week's episode.
Read More:
https://insightwealthgroup.com/hearing-what-we-want-to-hear/
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Jan 30, 2023
The Golden Cross
This has been a weird start to the year. Sentiment – at least as reported on the news – is decidedly negative. Market performance? Just the opposite. But the markets seem to be on path for a phenomenon which has historically indicated bullish sentiment. We walk through that trigger – and what may be standing in its way – in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/*the-weekly-insig…the-golden-cross*/
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Jan 23, 2023
Tug of War
There’s a tug of war going on with market sentiment right now. The earnings season has kicked off and – at least last week – it wasn’t pretty. But the broader economic data we’re seeing – including last week’s PMI read – keep looking better and better. The result? A choppy week in the market as neither side is coming out the victor. What is going sway this battle for momentum in the market?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tug-of-war/
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Jan 16, 2023
Bad Earnings, Good Market?
It's been a good start to the year in the markets. But a lot of “pundits” are warning of a drop in earnings or an earnings recession. That’s a scary term – but what does it mean for market performance?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bad-earnings-good-markets/
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Jan 9, 2023
Starting With a Bang
Anyone thinking we would ease into 2023 was given a wake-up call last week. The long and drawn out battle for the House Speakership was the big news story – and while it didn’t impact markets directly, the concessions made to get Kevin McCarthy the Speaker’s gavel may have lingering effects. And then there was the jobs report – something that has caused drama many times in recent months.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-starting-with-a-bang/
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Jan 2, 2023
Big Trends
It’s tempting to write the “Crystal Ball” piece this time of year. But we’re not fortune tellers at Insight. We can, however, pick out big trends and begin to understand how they might impact the market in the coming year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-trends/
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Dec 19, 2022
Jelly of the Month Club
Happy Holidays! In our last podcast before the holidays, we take a look at the recent pronouncements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and what they mean as we look into 2023. The market reacted a bit like Clark from Christmas Vacation getting a subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club. But should we have been surprised? Or did Chairman Powell do exactly what we should have expected by now?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-jelly-of-the-month-club/
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Dec 12, 2022
What Changes Is Congress Making to Retirement Accounts?
It was a slow week in the markets as everyone waits for the “Powell-palooza” we’re going to get at the year-end Fed meeting this week. Economic data was positive throughout the week and showed inflation continuing to come down – if not at the pace some would like. Given the break in the action, we wanted to bring you up to speed on a piece of legislation that may work its way through Congress before year-end. The Secure Act 2.0 would create significant changes in retirement plans – both for employers and employees – and may change how you save for retirement.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-changes-is-congress-making-to-retirement-accounts/
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Dec 5, 2022
Mixed Bag
Last week saw a number of wild swings in the market from a mixed bag of economic data and the last major comments from Chairman Powell prior to the next Fed meeting.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mixed-bag/
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Nov 28, 2022
Tea Leaves
Last week, we discussed the four big “expectation moments” for the market for the rest of this year. With the release of the Fed minutes last Wednesday, we have one of those moments behind us.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tea-leaves/
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Nov 21, 2022
Terminal Rate
Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you’re able to enjoy some quality time with your family this week. Just a quick reminder that the markets are closed on Thursday and close at 12:00PM CST on Friday. Our offices will keep the same hours.
Last week was a bit of a hangover from the (very good) CPI data. A very optimistic market got put back in its place a bit by the Fed, and the errant missile strike in Poland was enough to remind everyone just how serious the war in Ukraine is to world peace.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-terminal-rate/
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Nov 14, 2022
Patience Is Key
Well that was a great week! We finally got the election behind us (except for those of you in Georgia…). And we got a tremendous report on inflation on Thursday. The result was a swell in optimism in the market. That is undoubtedly good news, but is it possible the market is getting out ahead of itself (and the Fed)?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-key/
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Nov 7, 2022
The Dance Continues
Fed Chairman Powell freaked everyone out again with his remarks after the Fed’s interest rate decision last week. But was it really as bad as some were saying? Or was it just more of the same as we continue to wait for better jobs data and lower CPI reads (coming Thursday)?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-dance-continues/
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Oct 31, 2022
Goldilocks
Happy Halloween! We hope you’re celebrating in an appropriately spooky way. But we also hope that things don’t get too spooky in the markets this week – and that all depends on the Fed meeting Wednesday. We know (we think) they’re going to raise rates by 0.75%. But can their forward guidance give the market confidence to continue our current rally?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-goldilocks/
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Oct 24, 2022
Gridlock Is Good
We’ve avoided it for as long as we can, but it’s time…we have to talk about the election. As they say, elections have consequences – and this one likely will for the market as well.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-gridlock-is-good/
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Oct 17, 2022
Rollercoaster
Feeling nauseous yet? The month of October has been a rollercoaster ride for the markets. But the end result after all of the drama of the first half of the month? The market is flat.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-rollercoaster/
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Oct 10, 2022
Good Jobs Bad/Bad Jobs Good?
A client bumped us after the jobs report and subsequent volatility on Friday with this question: “So, a good jobs report is bad, and a bad jobs report is good?”
That’s the upside down world in which we’re living. As we’ve been saying for months, the only thing that matters is the Fed and everything else is viewed through that lens.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-good-jobs-bad-bad-jobs-good/
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Oct 3, 2022
Not So Great Britain
We’ve spent a lot of time in the Weekly Insight discussing the issues here at home with inflation and the markets. But the U.S. is just 24% of the world economy. In our evermore interconnected world, the other 76% is going to have a lot to say about the path of our economy. Last week, that was made clear when the government of new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to cut taxes in the midst of an inflation fight. World markets were thrown for a loop.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-not-so-great-britain/
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Sep 26, 2022
Hold!
Last week was one of those times when it is simply not fun to be an investor. Stocks, bonds, domestic, international…everything was down. The FOMC meeting left investors convinced rates are going higher – for longer – than expected. And Chairman Powell threatened a “policy induced recession”. So what are investors to do?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/*the-weekly-insight-hold*/
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Sep 19, 2022
Where's the Peak?
That was a tough inflation report. And it just kicks up the drama for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. What will Chairman Powell do? And what does this mean for the future? And when will inflation finally peak?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak/
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Sep 12, 2022
What's Our Vector, Victor?
The last few months have seen endless airplane analogies for the economy. “Soft landing”, “headwinds”, “turbulence”. But the truth is, our economy doesn’t have the simple choice of a good landing or a fiery crash. It’s always more complicated than that. This week, we look at what we’re hearing from the pilot (Chairman Powell) and how the market is reacting prior to the inflation data tomorrow.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-our-vector-victor
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Sep 6, 2022
Opportunities in Housing
New housing start data last month showed America is going to build 10% less homes this year than last (thank you, inflation & rising interest rates!). But did you know that even last year we didn’t build enough homes to keep up with new household formations? The U.S. has a 3.8 million unit deficit in housing. Does that mean there may still be some investment opportunities in this space despite rising interest rates? Take a look and let us know what you think!
https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-opportunities-in-housing/
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Aug 29, 2022
Pain?
We promised you last week the lazy days of summer were ending and a more dramatic period on the market was upon us. Chairman Powell fired the starter pistol with his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and, well, it’s safe to say the market didn’t love what it heard.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-pain
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Aug 22, 2022
The Tax Man Cometh?
There’s a lot of speculation about the new army of 87,000 auditors authorized for the I.R.S. in the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act”. But how likely is it these roles will be filled? And how quickly?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-tax-man-cometh/
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Aug 15, 2022
Good Inflation Data!
It finally happened…good inflation data! You’re well aware that we’ve been writing about and talking about this issue extensively over the last several months. Now that we have the data in our hands, it’s a good time to look at what it really means. Is this a flash in the pan before more bad data comes our way? Do we have reason to believe the easing of inflation will continue?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-good-inflation-data
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Aug 8, 2022
Silly Season
The last few months have been a constantly repeating cycle of inflation, Fed Policy, and fears of a recession. Right or wrong, that drumbeat seems to have slowed as enter the end of the summer. The markets have come up nicely from the bottom, with the S&P up nearly 8% over the last month. That gives us some time to look down the field at the issues that may impact the markets between now and the end of the year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-silly-season/
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Jul 18, 2022
The Stress Test
9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/
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Jul 11, 2022
Big Weeks Ahead
It was another solid week in the markets last week. The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break. But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer. There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-weeks-ahead/
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Jul 5, 2022
Life, Liberty & the Pursuit of Happiness
Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend!
A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have about the world today.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-life-liberty-the-pursuit-of-happiness
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Jun 27, 2022
New Rules: Energy
The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term. But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment? Probably not a good idea. We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/
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Jun 20, 2022
Circular Sentiment Firing Squad
Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically demanding. Until folks woke up Thursday morning and immediately had buyer’s remorse.
We’ve entered a phase of this downturn that is completely decoupled from the economic trends. Instead, sentiment is begetting sentiment.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-circular-sentiment-firing-squad/
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Jun 13, 2022
Choose Your Own Adventure: Inflation!
You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist. You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice. Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors. Were you looking for bad news? It was there. Optimism? There was a bit of that as well.
The market has clearly chosen the “bad news” path for the story since the report came out. But we’re quickly getting to the next critical juncture of the story. The FOMC is meeting and making a decision on the next interest rate hike this week.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-choose-your-own-adventure-inflation/
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Jun 6, 2022
We Love Markets in Turmoil
We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer?
Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty solid data to back up the fact that we’re not going to find ourselves in a recession in the next few months. That may mean some good things for the next few months.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-we-love-markets-in-turmoil/
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May 31, 2022
Looking Down The Field
Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo.
As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at what other risks exist out there.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-looking-down-the-field/
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May 23, 2022
We’re Buyers. Here’s Why.
We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets.
But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is in much better shape than the pundits would have you believe. The risk of a recession is remarkably low. And, we believe, inflation is peaking (or may have already peaked).
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-were-buyers-heres-why/
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May 16, 2022
The Inflation Crossroads
Last week was inflation week in the market. We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/
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May 9, 2022
Whiplash
Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed. The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/
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May 2, 2022
Fear
We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time.
It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s a lot harder to do. Why? Because fear, especially, and greed, to some degree, are biologically hardwired into our system.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear/
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Apr 25, 2022
While You Wait
The Fed waiting game is upon us again. The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting on May 4th. Is he optimistic about the future? Does he see inflation peaking? The market is begging for that information. And until then we wait!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-while-you-wait/
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Apr 18, 2022
Are We Bulls?
Inflation. Interest rates. COVID. Ukraine. Wash, rinse, repeat. The impact of these issues on the market and economy have been discussed and debated time and again by every pundit known to man. But what if the end of the world isn’t coming? What if there are some reasons to be optimistic in the face of all of this “dire news”?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-are-we-bulls/
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Apr 11, 2022
The Truth About Retirement
A bill passed the U.S. House last week – called the Secure Act 2.0 – which is designed to improve the system for retirement savings. On its face, it has a lot of good things in it: better catch-up contribution rules, delaying required minimum distributions until 75, etc. But the problem is, no one wants to have an honest conversation with American workers about their expectations for retirement.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-the-truth-about-retirement/
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Apr 4, 2022
A Recession is Coming (Eventually)
Every week it seems there’s something new the “financial gurus” on TV are fretting about. Last week, it was the “inverted yield curve” and the near certainty it means a looming recession? But does it? Is a recession really coming?
Simply put, yes. A recession is coming. But that’s because a recession is ALWAYS coming! Over the last seventy years, we’ve had a recession, on average, every 6.4 years. They are a natural part of the economic cycle. But is the yield curve a good predictor? That depends. There are a LOT of yield curves. And which one you cherry pick can either be tremendously predictive or not at all.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-recession-is-coming-eventually/
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Mar 28, 2022
Where’s the Drama?
Just two years ago last week, the market bottomed during the original “COVID Correction”. It seems like there has been constant drama since then. COVID surges, a contested Presidential election, inflation, interest rate debates, war, etc., etc. Which is why last week seemed so…strange.
Why? There wasn’t much drama! The market was up. The current dramas (inflation, Ukraine, interest rates, COVID) continued, but without any flare ups. It gave us a nice break to look at the future and see what the end of the quarter may bring.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-drama/
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Mar 21, 2022
A Spoonful Of Sugar
The Fed has finally spoken. It announced a 0.25% rate increase last week (expected). But they also released their “dot plot” for the next few years and it showed the potential for seven rate hikes this year. The market seemed to appreciate the Fed’s aggressive approach to inflation and rallied for the week. But what will that mean for the market long-term? We take a deeper dive into the Fed’s decision and it may mean for portfolios in this edition of the Weekly Insight.
Read more here: insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-spoonful-of-sugar
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Mar 14, 2022
Powell v. Putin
This week is the tale of two titans: Powell vs. Putin. The war in Ukraine – and especially its impact on the energy economy – is being felt around the world. Its impact on inflation is starting to be felt and may make things worse before they get better. How the U.S. – and specifically the Fed – responds this week is going to set the table for how markets do for the rest of the year. We know the FOMC is going to raise rates this week – but how many more rate hikes can we expect? And how much of an impact will shutting off Russian oil have on the economy?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-powell-v-putin/
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Mar 7, 2022
Tale of Two Markets
Last week was a tale of wild swings in the market. Bad news on Ukraine? Markets down hard. Good news on the economy and interest rates? Markets up strongly. It truly was a tale of two markets. And, while the volatility continues today, there is reason to be optimistic about the economic situation here in the United States. Barring a true “Black Swan” event where NATO and Russia enter into direct conflict – something we still consider unlikely – there continue to be opportunities to succeed in this environment.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-tale-of-two-markets/
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Feb 28, 2022
The Sanctions Game
Russia’s war against Ukraine is playing out on two stages: the cities of Ukraine and boardrooms of banks and companies across Russia and the West. As the West has decided not to engage Russia in direct military confrontation, the sanctions battlefield is increasingly important. But is it enough? And what else is on the table? And how will it impact the U.S. markets and economy? We take a deep dive this week to better understand the connection between our economy, sanctions, and the conflict in Ukraine.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-sanctions-game/
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Feb 21, 2022
Mark Your Calendars
It was another volatile week in the markets. Why? Uncertainty. We’ve said it time and again that the market just can’t stand not knowing what’s going to happen.
The good news? There is a time limit on this uncertainty. We’re going to know soon what is going to happen in Ukraine. We’re going to know by March 16th what’s going to happen with interest rates. And right now the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on both issues.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mark-your-calendars/
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Feb 13, 2022
Vlad’s Valentine
Happy Valentine’s Day! We hope you’re able to spend a little time with your loved ones today to celebrate (or, if this is your reminder, are able to run to the flower shop!).
Sadly, not everyone is feeling the love today. At the top of the list? Pretty much everyone in Ukraine. And the market took notice last Friday when Biden’s National Security Advisor stepped to the podium at the White House Press Room and essentially said “RUN!”. Between that and some rocky inflation data, last week was an interesting ride in the markets.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-vlads-valentine/
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Feb 6, 2022
The Putin Papers
Families gathered around their TVs this weekend to watch the kickoff to the Winter Olympics – a once every two years opportunity to get behind our country in something we can all agree upon. It’s fun to cheer on Team USA! But it also comes at an interesting time in the world. The kickoff weekend saw Vladmir Putin and Chairman Xi stand side-by-side and reiterate their shared commitment to standing up to the west. It was a reminder of Olympics gone by during the Cold War.
It was also an important reminder that not everything that impacts the market is related to interest rates or COVID. World affairs haven’t mattered as much in the last few years, but historically they have had profound effects. As such, we thought it time to dive a little deeper into Putin’s thinking on Ukraine and the impact that may have on the world order.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-putin-papers/
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Jan 31, 2022
Fed Psychosis
Last week was likely one of the “busiest” weeks in the market since the start of COVID. There was a lot of drama, most of it tied to the Fed meeting on Wednesday. We saw volatility unlike any we have seen in nearly two years. But the end result? Not much. Markets closed the week up and much of the panic over the Fed’s decisions proved to be unfounded.
Sandwich that inside a month filled with earnings reports (largely positive), rising (and now falling) COVID cases, and the potential for a war in the former Soviet Union, and January was a rollercoaster. In this week’s Weekly Insight we breakdown what that might mean for the market over the coming months.
Link to article referenced: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1s8CqV5wwK0yg7g_V36Sgai_EjhiXRyXS/view?usp=sharing
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-psychosis/
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Jan 24, 2022
Here. We. Go.
There is a great line from the Joker in the movie The Dark Knight (a must watch if you haven’t seen it – but we are about to spoil the ending…). To set the stage, he has two ferries (full of people) filled with explosives. Passengers in each ferry hold the trigger to the other ferry’s explosives. He is trying to prove the point that people will kill indiscriminately to save their own skins.
As the deadline approaches, he looks at Batman and says – rather dramatically – “And. Here. We. Go.”
The only problem? Neither ferry can bring themselves to kill the other. And nothing happens. His plan fails. The message? Despite all our problems, people are inherently good.
Last week was a bit of a “Here we go” week in the markets. We had some exceedingly popular stocks take a big tumble. The NASDAQ officially entered correction territory (down 10% from its high). Famous investor Jeremy Grantham declared the end of the bull market. Shares of growth favorite Peloton collapsed…
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