Doug Duncan is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae where he is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets. Duncan also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. He leads the House Price Forecast Working Group reporting to the Finance Committee. Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate.
01:30 What is the Economic and Strategic Research Group? What do they research?
11:27 Does data show people are moving out of urban areas?
12:04 Will the data show only to the major metropolitan area, or will it go deeper?
14:10 Does Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, and Ginnie Mae work together on research?
18:29 Fannie Mae’s board was surprised by this early pandemic prediction on housing
19:53 Where the majority of the job losses is concentrated
21:12 What are Doug's concerns about the supply and demand of new homes?
23:13 Savings rates have gone from 32% to 20% (normal is 8%)
25:09 The one data point Doug wishes he had about small businesses
28:33 Unemployment forecast for 2021
32:37 The argument people make to show homeownership not being important
33:06 The number one hurdle people have to homeownership
34:44 The sale and leaseback option of the new single-family rental investment companies
42:45 Why California has resorted to stripping local control for affordable housing
46:23 Is local and state taxation policies a concern to Fannie Mae as entities struggle from Covid and a recession?
50:14 Two data points we should be looking at for a better economy
50:58 Some things that may never go back after Covid
53:28 Can the federal government keep printing money with no ramifications to the overall economy?
54:13 Debt-to-GDP ration close to WWII era?
56:14 The Fed’s evolving rules on inflation and what we haven’t been told yet
57:09 How low will mortgage rates go in the next 12 months?
59:31 Will the Fed explore negative interest rates to stimulate the economy?
1:02:11 The difference between a policy buyer and an economic buyer
1:02:41 Will there be a wave of foreclosures in 2021?