The Stock Market is Heartless
Play • 53 min

Stocks soar to record highs as an armed insurrection invades Capitol Hill and millions of Americans remain susceptible to the worst pandemic in a century. How? How is this possible?Josh's guest is Allison Schrager, an economist, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, contributing editor at City Journal, co-founder of LifeCycle Finance Partners, LLC and the author of the book An Economist Walks Into a Brothel. Allison writes about risk, reward, retirement systems, pensions, the economy and political policies that affect all of our lives.

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The Razor's Edge
The Razor's Edge
Shortman Studios
Talking The Twitter Trade, Analyst Day, And The Big Picture
It's been a wild and, finally, fun ride for Twitter over the past 11 months. While everything feels like smooth sailing now for bulls, even as of our last episode on the stock post ex-President Trump ban in January, things weren't so clear. Despite that, the set-up was good enough for Akram's Razor to open an options trade into the earnings call (and for Daniel Shvartsman to open a small long position, which is a separate story). We break down what happened with Twitter but also more of the mechanics of the options trade; why that trade, why Q4 and not Q3, whether to hold it into the call itself, and what's left for Analyst Day this week. All of this happens within the context of the broader macro environment and what growth investors might start extrapolating as we (fingers crossed!) round our way out of the full COVID environment this year. So we bring a dollop of that context into the discussion as well. Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark - How does event-driven trading of options fit into a broader portfolio strategy? * 12:00 - Reviewing our record on Twitter and how/when Akram's views flipped over 2020 - the importance of narrative shifts, product adoption/development, having a variant view, and understanding the other side of the trade * 22:30 - Twitter's setup going into the start of 2021 * 28:45 - Why not own the biggest growth stocks instead of a Twitter? * 34:30 - Market participants' tendency to extrapolate in the short-term, and the misuse of 'compounding' * 40:00 - Defining mania * 48:00 - The strum and drang around Twitter at the beginning of 2021 and the March options trade * 1:04:00 - The Q4 reaction and what's left for the analyst day * 1:11:00 - Twitter's differentiation in the subscription space * 1:22:00 - The importance of understanding the process * 1:27:00 - Peak screen time
1 hr 42 min
The Contrarian Investor Podcast
The Contrarian Investor Podcast
Nathaniel E. Baker
Contrarian Stock Picks in Health Care, Tech, Travel
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time. "Ze Contrarian," a well-known and well-followed fintwit investor (Twitter handle: @ZeContrarian7) joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy and provide several stock picks for listeners. A few segments of this episode contain adult language. Listener discretion is advised. Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly) * Investment philosophy and view of the markets: it's a brave new world with promoters on social media and elsewhere moving stocks (3:00); * Where are the opportunities right now? Things move quickly, but biotechnology and companies that are part of the "great reopening" are two fertile areas (9:17); * First idea: Odonate Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ODT) (15:33); * Second idea: MediWound (NASDAQ: MDWD) (18:41); * Third idea: Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) (23:33); * Fourth idea: Hostelworld Group (PINK: HSWLF). "There's no better example for a contrarian investment than this stock." (28:17); * Brief discussion of hostels, where the host unwittingly reveals just how much of a boomer he really is (34:56); * Background on the guest (45:26) * The contrarian indicator that allowed him to get out of the market ahead of the COVID meltdown last February (50:55); * How does he find opportunities? It's all about building a network (54:37); * How to produce income? BDCs, or business development companies. Current favorite: Golub Capital (NASDAQ: GBDC) (59:32); * The coming boom in long-term travel and remote work and why it bodes well for the hotel industry (1:05:46); * The potential of Mexico (1:08:19). Additional Material * Hostelworld investment thesis via Twitter; Not intended as investment advice.
1 hr 14 min
The Long View
The Long View
Morningstar
Hamish Douglass: On the Hunt for Super-Compounding Stocks
Our guest this week is Hamish Douglass. He is the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Magellan Financial Group, a roughly $80 billion asset-management firm with headquarters in Sydney. Among his duties, Douglass is lead manager of the Magellan Global Equity strategy, which is a concentrated portfolio of high-quality growth stocks. That strategy has been very successful since its July 2007 inception, handily beating its benchmark, the MSCI World Index, with significantly less risk. Before forming Magellan in 2006, Douglass was co-head of global banking for Deutsche Bank in Australia and New Zealand. He received his undergraduate degree from the University of New South Wales. Background Bio Frontier MFG Global Equity "The Essential Balance: Independent Thinker, Team Player," by Rebecca Thurlow, _The Wall Street Journal_, Dec. 11, 2006. "Learn More About Magellan's Global Equity Strategy," Magellan, July 2019. "Being a Successful Investor," by Hamish Douglass, MFG Asset Management. Investment Style and Portfolio Construction "10 Cognitive Biases That Can Lead to Investment Mistakes," by Hamish Douglass, Magellan, May 2017. "Business Model Disruption Has Barely Begun," by Hamish Douglass, Firstlinks, Oct. 15, 2017. "Business Model Disruption--Part 2," by Hamish Douglass, Firstlinks, Oct. 19, 2017. "Passive Investing and Disruption," by Hamish Douglass, Magellan, July 2017. “13 of the best: reflections from an investor,” by Hamish Douglass, _Firstlinks_, July 31, 2019. "Hamish Douglass' Map for Investing This Decade," by Vesna Poljak, _Financial Review_, Jan. 24, 2020. "Hamish Douglass on What Really Matters," by Hamish Douglass and Frank Casarotti, Firstlinks, Oct. 21, 2020. "What Sort of Economy Awaits on the Other Side? Hamish Douglass Shares Four Possibilities," by Vishal Teckchandani, _Livewire_, April 1, 2020. "Magellan to Offer Low-Cost Investment Strategies," by Charlotte Grieve, _The Sydney Morning Herald_, Aug. 13, 2020. "China's Clampdown on Jack Ma's Ant Boosts Rivals," by Sun Yu and Tom Mitchell, _Financial Times_, Feb. 18, 2021.
50 min
The Acquirers Podcast
The Acquirers Podcast
Tobias Carlisle
Value: After Hours S03 E7 HELA cells, Energy, Inflation and Morality in Investing
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, Bill Brewster and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/  Jake's offer: http://farnam-street.com/vah Donate to the FinTwit Value vs Growth War here (it's for a good cause--The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention): https://www.gofundme.com/f/fintwit-war-value-vs-growth About Jake: Jake is a partner at Farnam Street. Jake's website: http://farnam-street.com/vah Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
1 hr 3 min
Alpha Trader
Alpha Trader
Seeking Alpha
Digital transformation comes to energy, autos, and currency - Jon Markman and Greg King join Alpha Trader (Podcast)
This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jon Markman, president and founder of Markman Capital, and Greg King, CEO and founder of Osprey Funds. Markman (who previously appeared on Alpha Trader in October) continues to believe the Fed ignited what’s going to be a decade-long bull run in stocks with their actions in response to the Covid crisis last year. With the Fed continuing to provide plenty of liquidity to the system, he’s targeting 92K for the Dow (DJI) in the next decade, and 34K on the Nasdaq (COMP). Turning to individual names/sectors, Markman is still spying the opportunity in digital transformation, but this time with a twist - it’s old-school energy and auto companies whose business models are changing from nuts and bolts to 0s and 1s. Shareholders of names like Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BKR), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen ([[VLKAF]], [[VWAGY]]) are set to benefit in a big way. And the massive investment the auto players are making into EVs means a re-rating not just for them, but suppliers like Magna International (MGA), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), and Analog Devices (ADI). Markman’s got plenty more digital transformation ideas, including a speculative play on cryptocurrencies, and that’s VPC Impact Acquisition (VIH), a SPAC that earlier this year inked a deal to take digital asset marketplace Bakkt Holdings public. Next up is Greg King, whose Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OBTC) recently launched as a lower-cost competitor to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). A longtime investor in bitcoin (BTC-USD), King isn’t put off by the wild volatility (including a plunge from $53K to $49K right about the time we were speaking). He notes that whenever bitcoin pierces a previous all-time high (as it did late last year by finally climbing past $20K), the average subsequent return is 900% - this bull move has plenty more to run. “Not your key, not your coins,” is something the hodlers like to say, but King says we all have limitations - not everyone is in a position to start up an account with an online exchange and possibly even custody their own bitcoin. A trust such as Osprey offers a fee of just 0.49%, is something that can be purchased inside an existing brokerage or retirement account, and safety isn’t an issue as all the Trust’s coins are held in custody by Fidelity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
54 min
Capital Allocators
Capital Allocators
Ted Seides
Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)
Rostin Behnam is the Acting Chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. He was nominated and approved by the prior administration in 2017 to serve as one of five Commissioners of the CFTC and in January, accepted the role as Acting Chairman. The CFTC has a mission to promote the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy of the U.S. derivatives markets, working towards effective price discovery and risk management in fair and transparent markets. As a part of his role, Russ sponsors the CFTC’s Market Risk Advisory Committee. Our conversation covers the history, function and process of the CFTC and the Acting Chair’s path to the seat. We then discuss his perspective on crypto assets and dive into an exhaustive policy piece published last fall by his Market Risk Advisory Committee entitled “Managing Climate Risk in the Financial System.” The document is positioned to become the leading regulatory policy manual on financial climate risk for the new administration. Our conversation took place shortly before Russ rose to Acting Chairman and before the wild market volatility in recent weeks. We touched base about his perspective, but the situation is too fluid for a public response. Acting Chairman Behnam released brief statement about the silver markets that said, “The CFTC is closely monitoring recent activity in the silver markets. The Commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver, and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation.” Stay tuned, as the subject may well be fodder for another conversation down the road. _Learn More_ Subscribe: _Apple_ | _Spotify_ | _Google _ Follow Ted on twitter at _@tseides_ or _LinkedIn_ Subscribe _Monthly Mailing List _ Read the _Transcript _
1 hr 6 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
128 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – February 22nd, 2021
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold. Check out our interview with Turtle Trading legends Richard Dennis & Jerry Parker here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @RJParkerJr09 And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:28 - Macro recap from Niels 3:30 - Weekly review of returns 30:49 - Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program?  What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s? 59:43 - Q1; Mohjeet: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends? 1:02:36 - Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment? 1:13:25 - Performance recap 1:14:24 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast  Subscribe on:
1 hr 18 min
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