The End Game Ep. 9 - Felix Zulauf
1 hr 5 min

Bill and Grant welcome the incomparable Felix Zulauf to The End Game.

What follows is a true masterclass in macro thinking as Felix joins a complicated series of dots to lay out both a cohesive vision of the present, and an impressive roadmap for the future.

The likely end of a 40-year bull market in bonds, the all-important inflation vs deflation debate as well as gold, the dollar and so much more all come under Felix's acute gaze.

Once again, this episode of The End Game will have your head spinning...

 

The Derivative
The Derivative
RCM Alternatives
The Mysteries and Makings of Machine Learning with Dr. Ernie Chan of QTS Cap
Does all this Machine Learning stuff really work? If it’s so good, why aren’t AI powered hedge funds printing money? And what is the difference between AI, machine learning, deep learning, machine trading, and more. Today’s guest is one that’s been at the center of the AI/MT/ML universe for over four decades. Ernie Chan runs a machine learning hedge fund at QTS Capital management, has authored 3 books – with the 4th on the way - and is the creator of PredictNow.ai. Ernie is joining us on The Derivative to talk about machine learning, decision trees, factors, and more factors, Niagara-on-the-Falls, bells & whistles becoming commonplace, Tim Hortons, the basics of machine learning, Les Miserable, ensemble approaches (diversification), classification vs regression, random forest techniques,  the merging of AI and Machine Learning, PredictNow.ai, supervised vs unsupervised learning, Harry Potter (instead of Star Wars), and the effects of machine learning on the market. Chapters: 00:00-02:45 = Intro  02:46-22:38 = Complicated Machine Learning - Going Back to Basics 22:39-38:45 = Basics of Machine Learning, ML vs AI + Unsupervised Learning  38:46-46:34 = PredictNow.Ai  46:35-01:06:07 = Take Us to QTS / You can Still Gain an Edge  01:06:08-01:10:46 = Favorites You can view and download Ernie’s QTS performance track record via the links below: QTS Capital Management, LLC. Tail Reaper, QTS Capital Management, LLC. QTS Partners, L.P. (QEP Only), QTS Capital Management, LLC. VIX Timer (QEP only), QTS Capital Management, LLC. (Chimera QEP only) Follow along with Ernie by checking out his published work, following him on LinkedIn, and taking a look at PredictNow.ai & the QTS website. And last but not least, don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative, and follow us on Twitter, or LinkedIn, and Facebook, and sign-up for our blog digest. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
1 hr 11 min
Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe
Hedgeye Risk Management
Vaccines, Republican Women, and New Asia Trade Deal
*In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the race for a vaccine. *Both Pfizer and Moderna announced that preliminary data show that their vaccines are over 90% effective. Yet despite the good news, there are still some major hurdles for these vaccines. 1. They have to be stored at sub-zero temperatures. 2. There is deep public distrust in their safety. 3. There hasn't been time to study their long-term effects (ADE, cross-reactivity, immunity duration, etc.). *Is political polling dead?* Pre-election day polls showed Democrats rolling easily into the White House, regaining the Senate, and expanding their majority in the House. While pollsters had the popular vote for the presidency within the margin of error, they failed to predict Senate and House outcomes. They seem to have missed the "shy" Republican voter, who split their ticket. *Republican women expand their numbers. *At least 15 new Republican women were elected to Congress this year, a new record for the party. With all the Republican female incumbents holding their seats so far, GOP women are set to more than double their ranks in the House.  *Between 2019 and 2020, the number of retired Boomers increased by 3.2 million.* Until now, the annual average for this figure has been 2 million. Probable culprit: the pandemic, which is persuading many lower-earning Boomers to call it quits.  *15 Asian countries sign a new trade deal. *Last Sunday, 15 nations signed the RECP, which streamlines country of origin laws. It is the first trade agreement between China, South Korea, and Japan. Noticeably, India is not in the deal. Prime Minister Modi claimed India would be flooded with "cheap" Chinese goods if they took part. *Hungary and Poland stall EU budget and recovery bill.* On Monday, diplomats from Hungary and Poland announced they would veto the long awaited-recovery bill. Their objection stems from a "values" clause which ties grants to having free and democratic institutions.  ********** The content featured here is a small part of Hedgeye’s *Demography Unplugged*, a game-changing market intelligence product brought to you by historian, demographer and best-selling author Neil Howe. Visit us to find out more and subscribe.
1 hr 3 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
115 The Systematic Investor Series ft Robert Carver – November 22nd, 2020
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record.  Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following?  Do you recommend any hedging strategies? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive,  @MoritzSeibert & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:35 - Macro recap from Niels 4:59 - Weekly review of returns 27:16 - Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with? 37:36 - Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns?  Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions? 1:03:57 - Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models? 1:22:48 - Performance recap 1:23:48 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real Vision Subscribe on:
1 hr 28 min
Alpha Exchange
Alpha Exchange
Dean Curnutt
Troy Dixon, Founder and CIO, Hollis Park Partners
Cutting his teeth on the acclaimed mortgage trading desk at Salomon Brothers in the 90’s, Troy Dixon gained an early appreciation for the speed and degree to which market liquidity can turn. Now the CIO of Hollis Park Partners, a firm he founded in 2013, Troy shares the perspectives gathered in managing complex trading risk over more than two decades in markets. We talk about his time at Deutsche Bank, where he ran the RMBS trading unit, and the intense pressure to compete in the pre-crisis period for profitability in each aspect of the mortgage lifecycle. Contemplating the asset price wreckage in the aftermath of the housing crash, Troy recounts the challenges in balancing the competing interests of providing market making services for the firm’s client base while risk managing a volatile book of prop exposures. Next, we discuss Troy’s founding of Hollis Park and the path that he has sought to provide for other professionals of color in the financial industry. In thinking back on the heavy lift he undertook, Troy said, “I was naive about a lot of things, but the core thesis of it was to lay the framework for people of color to follow suit in an industry that had created a plethora of wealth for people that don’t look like me.” A firm engaged in finding value in MBS and a variety of structured products, Hollis Park capitalizes on securities that have different prepayment speeds. No conversation with a fixed income expert would be complete without an assessment of Central Banks. And on the Fed, Troy has much to say. Calling low interest rates an addictive drug, Troy sees no obvious path for the Fed to disengage from markets, expecting ongoing volatility linked to this codependency. Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Troy Dixon.
46 min
Hidden Forces
Hidden Forces
Demetri Kofinas
Emerging Markets & the Turkish Lira: Assessing the Risks & Opportunities | Paul McNamara
In Episode 165 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Paul McNamara, an Investment Director at global asset manager GAM who serves as the company’s lead manager on hedge fund, emerging market bond and currency long-only strategies. The first half of this conversation focuses on the macro forces driving EM overall, including how the latest vaccines could affect the global recovery and the service and export sectors in emerging markets, the global debt picture and its impact on economic recovery, the resumption of trade, etc. The second half of our conversation focuses exclusively on one emerging market country in particular: Turkey. Turkey is a uniquely important country, not least because of its geostrategic positioning as a gateway between east and west, straddling multiple important theatres of conflict, diplomacy, and trade that matter greatly to all the major powers, including the United States. What happens to Turkey’s economy, the country’s ability to service its debts, and the value of its currency are materially important for its geopolitical stability and for the stability of its neighbors and NATO allies. To that effect, we examine some of the latest government-family drama in Turkey involving the president’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak and the significance of his ouster as Minister of Finance and Treasury, along with the implications for Turkey’s economy. We also discuss the recent 475 basis point rate hike by the Turkish central bank and what this means for the economy, domestic bank lending, and the value of the Lira going forward. Lastly, given the turmoil in relations between Turkey, the US, and Europe, it’s an open question as to how an incoming Biden administration will deal with this important NATO ally and if sanctions could be used against Ankara in the event that diplomatic headway isn’t made and Turkey’s president continues to go his own way on issues that are vital to both the US and Europe. You can access the afterthought segment, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Episode Recorded on 11/19/2020
54 min
Nugget's News Crypto & Finance Podcast
Nugget's News Crypto & Finance Podcast
Alex Saunders
Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi & Global Finance News – November 23rd 2020
Every week we cover all the latest Bitcoin, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, finance & economics news from across the global. We'll help you understand the world of investing & trading Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, stock markets, gold, silver, commodities, bonds, property, currencies & more. We also discuss how central banks have forever changed asset markets. The world of finance & economics has failed so many people. It now faces serious competition from free market solutions, Bitcoin, Ethereum & top cryptocurrency protocols. The best projects are attempting to build a fairer financial system & more inclusive digital world. We'll keep you up to date with all the latest Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, NFTs & cryptocurrency trends. With record debt & rising inequality, the world is headed for another global financial crisis. Central banks are doing everything they can to prevent another economic collapse. We believe central banks & governments will unleash massive fiscal spending, MMT, QE & negative interest rates in an attempt to drive up asset prices & inflate away debt. We believe Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum & cryptocurrency provide a great alternative to the current system that lets you control of your wealth & securely custody your data. New Website: https://collectiveshift.com.au/ Market Mastery: https://nuggetsnews.com.au/partners/market-mastery/ Date of Recording: 23rd November 2020 --- 🔔 Did you enjoy this episode? SUBSCRIBE for more! 📹 For more Resources & Content:http://nuggetsnews.com.au/ 🎙 Rather video? Tune in to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/nuggetsnews #️⃣ Connect with us: Twitter: https://twitter.com/NuggetsNewsAUFacebook:https://www.facebook.com/nuggetsnewsLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuggetsnewsInstagram:https://www.instagram.com/nuggetsnewsaus/Reddit:https://www.reddit.com/user/nugget_alex/________ ❗ DISCLAIMER ❗ Alex Saunders is not a Financial Adviser. All opinions expressed by Alex Saunders or his guests in this video are for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances. Nugget’s News and its individual team members are not liable to the viewer or any other party, for the viewer’s use of, or reliance on, any information received, directly or indirectly, from the video in any circumstances. The viewer should always: 1. Conduct their own research, 2. Never invest more than they are willing to lose, 3. Obtain independent legal, financial, taxation and/or other professional advice in respect of any decision made in connection with this video.
1 hr 4 min
The Acquirers Podcast
The Acquirers Podcast
Tobias Carlisle
Science of Hitting: Alex on Buffett-style value, and #neversell with Tobias on The Acquirers Podcast
Alex is the man behind the Science of Hitting twitter account: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing His investment strategy: "Patience followed by pretty aggressive conduct."   Twitter: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing Website: https://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?author=The+Science+of+Hitting&u=110170 ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I've launched a new podcast called The Acquirers Podcast. The podcast is about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public comp
52 min
Quoth the Raven
Quoth the Raven
Quoth the Raven Research, LLC
Quoth the Raven #230 - Groundhog Day: Janet Yellen Edition
On this podcast, I rant about Biden selection Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary, gold selling off, the coming end of the Covid panic and Elon Musk adding $100 billion to his net worth in 2020. The QTR Podcast is a completely, 100% listener supported podcast that is always going to be free. YouTube does not let me monetize my videos on the site and the podcast is full time work which will never have ads in the middle of it. If you enjoy the content, please support the QTR Podcast in any or all of the following ways: A small recurring donation via: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/QTRResearch One time donations can also be sent via:Bitcoin: 3G25NvNbGZsaDfoxTBzRFticKa4LDUeBpkVenmo: @chrisinphiladelphiaPaypal: https://www.paypal.me/qtrresearch You can join my e-mail list here and visit my website at www.quoththeravenresearch.com for all of my content. QTR MERCH is also now available here. You can also follow me on YouTube, Twitter, and Instagram. THANK YOU TO ALL OF MY KIND PATRONS. Please show love to those who support the QTR Podcast: Biggest Patron Donors * JM Bullion - where QTR buys gold & silver - Twitter: @JMBullion * The Trader's Path - no BS trading service - Twitter: @PLHStock * Sang Lucci Trading - the 3LT playbook - also, the SL Master Course * Corvus Gold - http://www.corvusgold.com * Investors Underground - day trading community - Twitter: @investorslive * Ken R * Chris Bede - Twitter: @cbede * Nicholas Parks * Matthew Zimmer * J Mintzmyer - Twitter: @mintzmyer * Russ Valenti - Twitter: @russellvalenti * Creighton Titus Longest Running Supporters * Max Mulvihill - Since 2/2018 * Kyle Thomas - Since 4/2018 * Chris Bede - Since 5/2018 * Dariusz Kordonski - Since 5/2018 * Chris Gerrard - Since 5/2018 All podcast content is subject to this disclaimer. Chris is not an investment adviser. QTR is long gold and silver. Listeners should always speak to their personal financial advisers. Please leave me alone.
49 min
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