Global Guessing Podcasts
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Home of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast (GGWP) and The Right Side of Maybe. GGWP is a weekly podcast about geopolitics and the science of forecasting hosted by the co-founders of globalguessing.com, Clay Graubard and Andrew Eaddy. Andrew and Clay also host the guest-focused, The Right Side of Maybe: A new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters.
Available episodes
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Mar 31, 2022
A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
In this podcast episode (recorded on 3/23/22) we spoke with Maxim Lott – the mind behind the Maximum Truth Substack and ElectionBettingOdds.com – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in Russia as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian crisis.
As a former journalist for organizations like ABC and Fox, Maxim has deep experience operating within mainstream media companies. And as a result of his time working for those institutions, he has focused his career on providing alternatives to mainstream media narratives, including the current war in Ukraine.
Maxim has been covering (and forecasting) the war in Ukraine throughout March, providing nuanced perspectives on the crisis. From casting doubt on the severity of the current sanctions regime impacting the Russian economy, to sharing sentiment polls from Russian citizens, Maxim consistently provides interesting vantage points on this conflict. Maxim also spent time in Eastern Europe before our conversation, and talks about his experience in the region and how that has impacted his analysis.
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Feb 15, 2022
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
In this podcast episode, we sat down with Tom Chivers—author, journalist, and science writer for The i—to have a conversation on forecasting and the news media. We talked about his background in the media industry, his frustrations with mainstream news and its lack of nuance, his views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more.
Tom previously wrote for BuzzFeed UK, served as the science editor for UnHerd, and has bylines with New York Times, Guardian, New Scientist, and The Telegraph. He often writes data-driven rebuttals to topics that are being primarily depicted in one way in the media, interjecting nuance into the conversations. In many ways, the same exercise as distinguishing signals from noise. Conducting journalism with a forecaster’s mindset.
He's also written two books, The AI Does Not Hate You in 2019 and How to Read Numbers in 2021, and writes about similar topics discussed in our communities, including effective altruism, rationality, and forecasting. To our knowledge, Tom is one of the most prominent journalists writing about and covering quantified forecasts. In June of last year, Tom assembled a panel of superforecasters for an article on whether China will invade Taiwan and has started to make his own predictions too!
You can follow Tom on Twitter: @TomChivers.
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Feb 1, 2022
Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022
And we’re back! In this year’s first podcast, we are speaking with Tina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, a London-based advisory business.
Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, including leading the Lehman Brothers-Eurasia Group index—the first political risk index on Wall Street. While there she also led the roll-out of Eurasia Group's European business.
Since then, Tina’s career has included roles as Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citigroup (the first position of its kind on Wall Street), as well as Member of the High-Level Panel for Women's Economic Empowerment—the first-ever UN High-Level Panel dedicated to promoting Women's Economic Empowerment. She also created her own framework for processing political risk, Vox Populi, which was born in the post-Arab Spring era that we will talk about in-depth.
Today we will discuss Tina’s impressive career, her risk framework, and some specific forecasts she has made in her many roles as well as her thoughts on quantified forecasting and much more. We are very excited about this interview, and we think you will enjoy this one!
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Dec 10, 2021
✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited
When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Wildeford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns.
In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve.
Find Peter Wildeford : https://twitter.com/peterwildeford
Rethink Priorities: https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup
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Dec 9, 2021
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
How should we understand the Omicron relative to Delta? How does Omicron change the nature of the pandemic and what steps should we be taking in response? These questions require navigating and quantifying uncertainty, while also making forecasts about the future. We could think of no one better than Juan Cambeiro for answers.
Juan Cambeiro is a Global Guessing alum, Good Judgment superforecaster, and Metaculus analyst, who placed first in IARPA's FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting and was the former first-place COVID forecaster on Good Judgment Open.
Juan recently wrote a fantastic article on Metaculus about the Omicron variant–providing a concise analysis of the variant from an epidemiological and public health perspective, while also offering five concrete forecasts about it.
In this podcast, we'll talk to Juan about how he analyzed and understood the variant, chose and forecasted these five questions, and key signals he’s identified and looking out for in the future. We'll also chat about how policymakers and others should respond to the variant and understand the information from these forecasts. At the end, we'll discuss additional forecasting questions we should be asking to better understand the variant's impact on the pandemic.
Learn more: https://globalguessing.com/forecasting-omicron-juan-cambeiro/
Note: This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2021.
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Nov 7, 2021
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
It's hard to imagine, but 51 weeks ago we launched Global Guessing with our inaugural forecast on the 2020 Burkina Faso Presidential Election. In the time since, we've released 43 podcast episodes, 34 forecasts, and a new newsletter.
In today's final (??) episode of the Weekly Podcast, we wanted to go over this incredible past year–discussing why we started this project, recount the content we've produced, highlight our favorite moments, and discuss how our thoughts about quantified forecasting and the content we produced evolved since that Burkinabe forecast.
While this may be the final GGWP for a while, we're not going anywhere! At the end of this episode, we'll share with you our exciting plans for 2022 and beyond with respect to forecasts and podcasts.
Thank you so much for being with us for the last year and the support you have shown. We hope you enjoy the show!
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Nov 2, 2021
Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20)
Do consumers of geopolitical risk reports want accurate forecasts? You would think surely yes, but recurring listeners of our podcast know that in many cases individuals prefer vague verbiage over accountable, quantifiable forecasts. In this week's Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we wanted an answer, so we spoke with Manas Chawla, founder and CEO of London Politica–a student-run pro-bono political risk organization based out of London.
Manas founded London Politica in 2020 during the pandemic when he noticed an accessibility problem in the geopolitical risk industry. Today, the geopolitical industry resembles an oligopoly: there is a small handful of large firms that retain the largest clients and drive trends. The issue is that the fees which these firms charge are often too lofty for the massive pool of SMBs and independent business owners around the world. And that’s where London Politica comes in. Run by students who provide new and innovative perspectives on the world of geopolitics, London Politica provides geopolitical risk services and thought leadership at affordable prices to a diverse world of clients.
Today Manas will walk us through how he founded his firm which boasts 70 analysts in 20 countries with backgrounds from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and clients such as Global Citizen. And to make this all more impressive, Manas is currently a student at the London School of Economics where he is studying International Relations. We'll also talk with Manas about the role geopolitical forecasts play in geopolitical risk, and how the future of the two might look.
Note: This podcast was recorded on August 31, 2021.
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Oct 24, 2021
David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19)
Welcome back to the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week we are joined by David McCullough, Managing Director of Government Operations and Superforecaster and Good Judgement Inc. Prior to joining Good Judgement, David was an underwater Archaeologist for over twenty years after receiving his Ph.D. in Maritime Archeology from the University of Glasgow.
In this week's episode, we talked to David about his background in Archaeology and the ways in which his training helped him become an elite forecaster. Afterwards, we discussed the importance of creating good forecasting questions and the qualities associated with them. We also chatted with David the importance of pre-mortem analysis and the roadblocks hindering government and private-sector adoption of forecasting and the principles outlined in Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting.
We really enjoyed speaking with David, finding his answers thoughtful and insightful. If you did as well, make sure to check out Good Judgement's upcoming Superforecasting Workshop on December 8th and 9th at 12:00 - 2:30pm EST.
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Oct 17, 2021
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18)
And we're back! Welcome everyone to the eighteenth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, the podcast on all things geopolitics and forecasting. Today we are joined by GG alum David Manheim, lead researcher for the human challenge trial advocacy group 1DaySooner who previously appeared on The Right Side of Maybe to discuss his accuracy in forecasting Covid vaccines.
David received a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. He has done work on a variety of grants and contracts to research existential risk mitigation, public health, computational modelling, and infectious disease epidemiology for organizations such as the RAND Corporation. In addition to his work with 1DaySooner, David currently works with the Foresight Institute, is a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc., and recently became a visiting professor at the Israel Institute of Technology "working to build interdisciplinary collaborations with technical researchers on the promises and risks of emerging technologies."
In this episode, you'll hear David talk about his work in biosecurity including the recent report he worked on for the Council on Strategic Risks, a US think tank, and his work with 1DaySooner on human challenge trials to learn how this change in vaccine testing could save millions of lives. We also chatted with David about the role that quantified forecasting currently plays in government policy and discuss why the technique is under-utilized. Finally, we get David’s thoughts on real-money prediction markets and the importance of question-quality in both prediction markets and platforms.
Note: This episode was recorded on July 29th.
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Jul 11, 2021
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17)
Career paths rarely unfold linearly, and this week's guest is no exception. But his winding way in geopolitics (as he discusses) provided him with exceptional perspective which has surely informed his geopolitical chops. In this week's episode we sat down with John Fowler of International Intrigue, a newsletter covering all things geopolitics and global affairs. We talked about his circuitous route to International Intrigue, including stops to study law, join the Australian foreign service, and earn an MBA. We also chatted about some of his most memorable International Intrigue editions as well as exploring the many linkages between the worlds of geopolitics and forecasting. Be sure to listen or watch this episode for some interesting conversation, and to discover another great content hub to consume.
International Intrigue: https://www.internationalintrigue.io/ John Fowler: https://twitter.com/johnsnonsense
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing Facebook: https://facebook.com/globalguessing LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/
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Jul 8, 2021
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement
Since beginning Global Guessing, we have noted that interdisciplinary approaches to forecasting have often borne positive results. Whether guests have come from the world of finance, academics, or biology, their ‘outside views’ have frequently contributed to their forecasting accuracy. And our guest this week, Juan Cambeiro, is no different.
In this episode 6 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay and Andrew sat down with student, biostatistics student, and Metaculus summer analyst Juan Cambeiro to discuss his background in forecasting and work with Metaculus Pandemic. Juan placed first in Good Judgement Open's 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak forecasting challenge, and is currently in second place overall.
After discussing Juan's background in forecasting, we dove deep into three recent forecasts he made covering Mortgage Interest Rates, US COVID Deaths, and the Tokyo Summer Olympics. Two of the questions Juan got to the right side of maybe, while the third he ended up on the wrong side. We…
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Jul 3, 2021
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16)
Every forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new paper was published alongside forecasting pioneers Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers that does a great job of providing a solution.
Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error across a number of forecasts from a single forecaster), and Noise (non-information that is registered as information in a forecast). From there they test which of these parts is most critical to the accuracy of a forecast, and posit methods to improve in these areas.
In this episode we are lucky enough to sit down with Ville and Marat to discuss the origins of this…
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Jun 17, 2021
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus
In episode 5 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay talks to Datscilly, the top-ranked forecaster on the Metaculus leaderboards, who only 18 months after first forecasting won nearly $50,000 in the IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 where he placed second. How did Datscilly improve his skills so quickly? What was his strategy for excelling in a competition setting? And how is he able to get to the right side of maybe before others so quickly, so reliably, and so often? Datscilly answers these questions and more, while also diving dive into a particular forecast relating to Ebola on Metaculus which he did particularly well on.
Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing
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Jun 5, 2021
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)
How do the biggest geopolitical risk firms approach forecasting? What’s the future of tensions between the United States and China? How hard is it to forecast far into the future? In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we sat down with Phillip Orchard of Geopolitical Futures to talk about all of these topics and more.
For those who aren’t aware, Geopolitical Futures is a geopolitical forecasting operation founded by George Friedman, former Stratfor Chairman and author of The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Within the organization Phillip focuses on the Indo-Pacific, working to inform clients about risks stemming from that region of the world. Phillip is an expert in Chinese foreign policy and has developed a deep understanding of the geopolitics dynamics at play in the greater East Asian and Southeast Asian regions of the world. He even speaks some Thai!
Watch until the end to hear a new rapid fire question we gave Phillip given his areas of intere…
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Jun 3, 2021
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack
What do you get when you combine a veteran superforecaster with an experienced hacker and innovator? You get our guest for episode 4 of The Right Side of Maybe!
This week we spoke with Carolyn Meinel—CTO of ISIT Austin, hacker and author, and top-ranked superforecaster—about her experience in the hacking world, forecasting best practices and frameworks, as well as Carolyn’s prediction about the Code Red worm which turned out on the right side of maybe. If you have interest in the intersection of forecasting and cyberwarfare, or want to be graced with interesting anecdotes about the science world from the 1970s to 2000s, this is the episode for you.
Find Carolyn Meinel: https://twitter.com/cmeinel Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalguessing
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May 22, 2021
An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14)
What is Metaculus' origin story? Who runs it now and what do they have planned for the future? How will Metaculus' role within the forecasting ecosystem shift as time goes on? These are all questions that any avid forecaster might be curious about, and today we were able to get some answers! In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we sat down with a very special guest to discuss the answers to these questions and to talk about the forecasting community writ large: Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus.
Quantified forecasting wasn't always at the fore of Gaia's mind. She used to work a tech entrepreneur, helping to run and grow companies in the augmented reality space. But in 2019 things changed and she was lured by Metaculus' founding group of scientists to join the company.
As she touches on in our interview, forecasting and her past in alternate reality technology, while seemingly quite different on the surface, have many commonalities. Namely, the focus on human augmentati…
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May 18, 2021
A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13)
What’s been going on with Israel and Palestine since last Monday? How far along in the conflict are we? Is this flare-up between these two nations any different from past years?
In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the conflict which we forecasted this week. Instead of answering a single question related to a potential ceasefire or death-tally, we decomposed the conflict into six questions that we felt give a good high-level view of where we are in the conflict, and where it may end up. And as there was no question on this topic on Metaculus this week, we determined our own resolution criteria as well!
Read the episode, get our sources and data, and find the Metaculus questions at globalguessing.com.
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May 8, 2021
Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12)
What can we expect to happen in Afghanistan after the United States withdraws its troops? What is going on in the Donbass? How likely is it that any country boycotts the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing? We answer all these questions and more in this episode.
In Episode 12 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Michael Hilliard, host of The Red Line Podcast. Every two weeks Michael sits down with three experts to unpack niche issues in the world of geopolitics. From elections to regional disputes to commodities, the Red Line covers a wide array of topics which will surely be of interest to a lot of our viewers. We discussed all of this with Michael, before covering some hot topics in geopolitics today as well as diving into the world of quantified forecasting as it related to geopolitics. Michael is a geopolitical whiz and a pleasure to speak with, so we hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did!
The Red Line Podcast: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ The Red Line…
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May 1, 2021
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11)
How do companies use forecasting? When will forecasting, as we practice it at Global Guessing, become more common and mainstream? What tools can I use to forecast better? If you’re curious about the answers to any of these questions, then this episode is for you!
In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chatted with Tom Liptay and Michael Story, co-founders of Maby, Superforecasters, and former alumnus of Good Judgement. Maby is a forecasting platform created to help companies and investors forecast more accurately. Companies often have internal ways of forecasting revenues or market trends, but few use the systematic and scientific techniques and methodologies of quantified forecasting that we like to explore at Global Guessing. Hear about Maby, and Tom & Michael’s journey to forecasting in this exciting episode.
Tom Liptay: https://twitter.com/TLiptay
Michael Story: https://twitter.com/MWStory
Website: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https…
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Apr 29, 2021
✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right
How does a world-renowned superforecaster compare to public health experts when forecasting the future of the pandemic? We spoke with one to find out. Tom Liptay is a PhD, CPA, investor, and superforecaster with Good Judgement Project. Amongst the top forecasters, he is among the top-ranked. Tom co-founded Maby, a platform that provides companies and organizations with the requisite tools to make quality forecasts for their business, or other exogenous issues to their operations.
In episode 3 of The Right Side of Maybe, we talked to Tom about a series of Covid-19-related predictions he made on Maby and how they compared with public health experts'. Tom shared a lot of useful insights for new and expert forecasters alike looking to make better, more valuable predictions.
Find Tom's predictions here: https://www.maby.app/covid/
Website: https://globalguessing.com/
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Apr 25, 2021
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10)
What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?
Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.
Website: https://globalguessing.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing
Facebook: https://facebook.com/globalguessing
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin…
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Apr 15, 2021
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines
In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim—a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, researcher, and public policy whiz—got this question right, beating a crowd of superforecasters and showcasing his strong forecasting ability.
In this second episode of The Right Side of Maybe, we spoke to Dr. Manheim about his introduction to forecasting, his views on how to improve forecasts with some basic techniques, and the concept of Minimal Valuable Forecasts before digging deeper into his impressive Covid-19 prediction. We also spoke to Dr. Manheim about how forecasting plays a role in his personal life, and heard about his own process when it comes to approaching new forecasting domains.
David Manheim: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim
Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing
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Apr 10, 2021
Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8)
How do the best forecasters update their beliefs? Do markets or prediction polls elicit the best forecasts? In this week’s episode of GGWP, Pavel Atanasov answers these questions and discusses his postdoc experience at Good Judgement under Phillip Tetlock and Barb Mellers. We also talked to Pavel on the strengths and weakness of machine forecasting models and different ways to handle median-spamming behavior on prediction platforms such as Metaculus during aggregation.
Pavel Atanasov is the co-founder of Pytho.io-a boutique R&D shop which uses decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pytho’s current focus is Human Forest, a double-NSF award (patent-pending) project which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. Pavel has a Ph.D in Psychology and Decision Science from The University of Pennsylvania and is the author on numerous forecasting…
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Apr 3, 2021
Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho on Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results (GGWP 7)
In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human forecasters against machine models to predict COVID-19 clinical trials.
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Mar 27, 2021
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6)
In the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of the assumptions made by some of Rootclaim's more controversial analyses including in their Syria chemical attack analysis before Saar questions some of the assumptions in our Rootclaim-based forecast in last week's Metaculus Monday's on the origins of COVID. And that's not all! in our longest episode yet we also make predictions about aliens and discuss Bzigo, one of Saar's technology start-up companies that creates a device which detects, locates, and (one day) kills mosquitos 🦟!
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Mar 20, 2021
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5)
We review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. We also talk about what’s in store next for Global Guessing! Let us know on Twitter, Facebook, or our website if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions regarding our plans for the future of the brand!
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Mar 20, 2021
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2)
Clay and Andrew are flying solo...or rather duo. In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chat about the most pressing news from this week in geopolitics. Then we discuss our latest Metaculus Monday article regarding normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations before doing a live prediction on Metaculus! We also cover The Good Judgement Project’s new Good Judgement Open challenges as well as talk about Marko Papic’s book Geopolitical Alpha. Tune in for a good one!
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Mar 13, 2021
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4)
Ross, founder of AR Global Security, a brand dedicated to providing news and analysis about the global security landscape, joins us this week. We discussed how the rise of cyberspace will change the future of statehood, discuss the implications of China's push for an Arctic Silk Road and what the Russia-China joint moon base means for their future relations. In a later segment, we also discuss how hybrid warfare will change the nature of conflict over the next decades, among other topics in episode 4 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast.
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Mar 6, 2021
Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3)
Andrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting website that has caught our attention for more than one reason.
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Feb 19, 2021
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1)
For the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorporated into predictions, why forecasting has little presence in academia, and reflecting on past predictions–among other topics.
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