Eye On The Market
Michael Cembalest
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Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
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Sep 26, 2023
What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.
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Aug 2, 2023
The Rasputin Effect
Global resilience to higher rates
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Jul 18, 2023
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
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Jun 14, 2023
Letters to the Editor
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
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May 23, 2023
Too Long at the Fair
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
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Apr 25, 2023
The Places We Could Go
Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.
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Apr 10, 2023
Frankenstein’s Monster
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
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Mar 28, 2023
Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now.
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Feb 21, 2023
Winter Heating
The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans.
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Jan 24, 2023
American Gothic
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it
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Jan 1, 2023
The End of the Affair
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins
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Dec 1, 2022
Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck
Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule
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Nov 2, 2022
A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.
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Oct 19, 2022
Reruns
Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else
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Sep 26, 2022
Arrested Development
Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force
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Sep 6, 2022
On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
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Jun 27, 2022
Independence Days
Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry
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Jun 15, 2022
The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen
Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one
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May 26, 2022
The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating
Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?
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May 17, 2022
Bear Market Barometers
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.
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May 11, 2022
The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles
We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire
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May 11, 2022
The Elephants in the Room
We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration
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Mar 22, 2022
Surveying the Damage
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin
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Mar 7, 2022
China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed often, capital spending by the world’s largest energy companies has fallen 75% from peak levels while global demand for oil, gas and coal are all at or above pre-COVID levels. Countries that reduced their supply of thermal energy at a much faster pace than they reduced their demand are paying a very stiff price for that right now. We expect some about-face movements on this in the days ahead.
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Mar 4, 2022
Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors
Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.
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Feb 15, 2022
Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine
Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers
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Dec 6, 2021
Middle Ages
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.
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Nov 15, 2021
The Thing
Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
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Oct 20, 2021
Help Wanted
“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy
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Sep 27, 2021
Dude, Where’s My Stuff
The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022
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Aug 19, 2021
Spaccine hesitancy
Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy data
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Jul 26, 2021
Red Med Redemption
Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth
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Jul 13, 2021
Thy Brother’s Keeper
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
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Jun 28, 2021
Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
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May 5, 2021
Future Shock
Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting.
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Apr 14, 2021
Absolute Value
Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.
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Mar 15, 2021
Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate
If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.
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Feb 18, 2021
Very short stories
Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.
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Feb 8, 2021
Hydraulic Spacking
In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.
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Jan 19, 2021
Fear of Flying
Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.
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Jan 1, 2021
Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery
Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.
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Dec 14, 2020
Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent
The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.
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Nov 18, 2020
The Armageddonists, Revisited
The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of electoral illegitimacy and Constitutional mayhem on January 6th.
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Nov 9, 2020
Quiet Flows the Don
For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance).
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Oct 13, 2020
Buckle Up
The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.
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Sep 30, 2020
Election 2020 - Praying for Time
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
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Sep 4, 2020
The Needle and the Damage Done
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.
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Aug 17, 2020
COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17)
US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.
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Jul 29, 2020
COVID Research: Charts of the Week
US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.
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Jul 7, 2020
Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap
US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.
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Jun 28, 2020
Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper
While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.
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May 25, 2020
Zoom Room
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
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May 11, 2020
Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
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Apr 17, 2020
Covid-19 Update
Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.
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Mar 29, 2020
Man vs Nature
Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.
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Mar 23, 2020
COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets
Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.
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Mar 5, 2020
Berning Man
An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.
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Feb 5, 2020
Millions and Trillions
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
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Jan 17, 2020
Rotten Tomatoes
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.
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Dec 31, 2019
Ghosts of Christmas Past
Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
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Dec 4, 2019
War of the Worlds
In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
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Nov 8, 2019
The Armageddonists!
The Armageddonists and the price of fame.
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Oct 6, 2019
Warren Peace
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We…
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Sep 3, 2019
So Long Yellow Brick Road
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors
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Jul 14, 2019
Food fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan market
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due to the erosion of covenants.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees…
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Jun 23, 2019
Lost in space: The search for democratic socialism in the real world
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, withou…
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Jun 4, 2019
Listen when people tell you who they are
Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened. A story in pictures. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe…
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May 13, 2019
Smoot Hardly
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, publi…
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Apr 8, 2019
Fed Zeppelin: Is the Fed making a mistake?
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment re…
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Mar 18, 2019
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is no…
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Feb 13, 2019
Short People: the market rebound, and what comes next
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, publ…
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Jan 1, 2019
The Decline of Western Centralization, Part II
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks. While we expect US GDP and profits to continue to rise in 2019, unresolved trade issues, slowing global growth and a move by the Trump administration away from its 2017 market-friendly policies are likely to cap a post-correction rebound. All things considered, it looks like a volatile, positive single-digit year for diversified portfolios in 2019.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all inves…
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Dec 10, 2018
Good luck with that
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copie…
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Nov 19, 2018
Private equity forecast: plenty of dry powder
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distribute…
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Nov 7, 2018
The Verdict
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distri…
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Oct 25, 2018
How business cycles end: implications for investors
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should n…
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Sep 3, 2018
America, First
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market: America, First. Michael reviews the strength of US equity markets so far this year in the context of fading fiscal and monetary stimulus, signs of fatigue in US tech stocks and potential ramifications of constitutional and trade concerns. Other topics include current dynamics in Italy and the US commercial real estate market.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal…
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Jul 23, 2018
The song remains the same
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and shares his thoughts on the Helsinki summit.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance…
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Jun 25, 2018
The room where it happens
Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, p…
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May 29, 2018
Chinese handcuffs
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market. Topics include the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable given the greater economic linkages between the US and China compared to adversaries of the last 100 years. Also, some thoughts on emerging markets, Turkey and serial defaulter Argentina.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are…
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May 17, 2018
The Arc and the Covenants
Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs. Legal precedent shows that bondholder losses exceed pensioner write-downs. Given complacent conditions in credit markets, this is a good time to review muni diversification. Read more: jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320745513818.pdf
*Please note this PDF is publicly available and issued through our Private Bank business.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its emplo…
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May 8, 2018
The Late Show
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The Late Show. He considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018. He tackles the drivers of somewhat muted equity returns by focusing on late-cycle investing, the Fed, and the factors affecting the path of interest rates (labor markets and the expanding budget deficit). Michael also discusses his views on the oil price recovery since 2016.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable…
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Apr 10, 2018
Pascal's Wager
Michael Cembalest discusses his annual energy paper, Pascal’s Wager, the argument that belief makes more sense than disbelief when the worst outcome is a total loss. He tackles the reality behind climate goals & decarbonization, electric vehicles, academics’ view on the renewable energy future, & a twist on the US Electoral College. Michael is joined by Matt LeBlanc, CIO of JP Morgan Asset Management’s Infrastructure Group.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are…
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Jan 29, 2018
The Jaws of Victory
Michael Cembalest explores ways in which the current administration could negatively impact financial markets in the midst of an environment of generally rising growth, profits and capital spending with guest speaker, Jack Bartling, an international affairs specialist.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of futu…
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