Value Hive Podcast
Value Hive Podcast
Oct 23, 2020
Deep Value Opportunities in Japan & Australia w/ Will Thrower, Dumile Capital (Episode 48)
1 hr 25 min

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Will Thrower is one of the most under-followed investors on Twitter. In fact, his Twitter profile is like the companies he hunts for: undervalued with long runways for growth. Our conversation took us from chicken farms in China to equity trading offices in London. How Will got started in markets is such a fascinating story. It was one blog post, picked up by Bloomberg, that led to a job as an equity analyst. 

We spend over an hour discussing how Will finds ideas, the opportunity set in Japan and Australia, and why US investors should think twice before passing over an International business because, "A US competitor can do the same thing."

Here's the time-stamp for our chat: 

  • [0:00] The Chicken Farm
  • [5:30] What led you to become an equity researcher?
  • [20:30] The Beenos Thesis (3328.T)
  • [33:20] Questions that You Want Management to Answer.
  • [35:20] An Ideal Investment
  • [40:40] Nano Cap Investments and Competitive Advantages 
  • [54:00] Positioning Sizing
  • [1:01:10] Advance Nano Tek (ASX: $ANO)
  • [1:16:00] More from Will Thrower
  • [1:19:22] Closing Questions

If you enjoyed our conversation and want to learn more about Will, check out the following resources: 

***Disclaimer: Nothing you hear on this podcast is in any way, shape or form to be construed as investment advice. The guest on this podcast may hold positions in any/all names mentioned during the podcast. This is not investment advice and investors should always conduct personal due diligence before investing in any security. Past performance of any funds mentioned are not indicative of future returns.**

The Acquirers Podcast
The Acquirers Podcast
Tobias Carlisle
Value: After Hours S02 E46 Buffett sells $COST, Einhorn's $GLRE and Icahn's $IEP, Long-lived Instos
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, Bill Brewster and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/  Jake's Golden Jubilee offer: http://farnam-street.com/vah Donate to the FinTwit Value vs Growth War here (it's for a good cause--The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention): https://www.gofundme.com/f/fintwit-war-value-vs-growth About Jake: Jake is a partner at Farnam Street. Jake's website: http://farnam-street.com/vah Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
1 hr 3 min
Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon
Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon
Stocktwits
Lewis Johnson of Capital Wealth Advisors and Fundamental Global Investors On the Business of Investing (EP.120)
I had the pleasure of catching up with my good friend Lewis Johnson on this episode of Panic. Lewis has a strong background, with titles like UPenn Wharton MBA grad, money manager, stock picker, researcher and entrepreneur. Lewis’ company, Fundamental Global, is an alternative asset management firm which advises on over $2 billion of assets through its affiliates and deals in research, portfolio diversification and investment experience. If you’re looking for advice about asset management – or just someone to go fishing with – he’s your guy. In this episode, Lewis and I had a wide-ranging conversation, discussing managing alternative assets, the value of research and data, his work at Fundamental Global and Capital Wealth Advisors, the markets, the industrialization of China, gold, the Next Big Thing, supply and demand, cycles, crypto, decentralization, SPACs, education, silver linings in COVID-19 and more. It was clearly a smörgåsbord of a discussion. Enjoy!  Guest - Lewis Johnson, Co-Founder & President at Fundamental Global Investors and Co-CIO at Capital Wealth Advisors  howardlindzon.com, capitalwealthadvisors.com  blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks  Twitter: @howardlindzon, @TrendsTailRisks, @knutjensen  linkedin.com/in/lewismjohnson  #fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance
48 min
The Intelligent Investing Podcast
The Intelligent Investing Podcast
Eric Schleien
#125: A New Model For Shareholder Activism
Show Links * The Proxy Activism Project * A New Model For Shareholder Activism (Blog) * A New Model For Shareholder Activism (YouTube) * A New Model For Shareholder Activism (Eric Schleien / John King) * Netflix, Sears, and Tribal Leadership (Eric Schleien / John King) * How To Keep Large Companies Innovative (Eric Schleien / Scott Forgey) * Eric Schleien discussing Tribal Leadership * Eric Schleien discussing Activist Investing * CBRE Case Study - Tribal Leadership * Comparing Transformational & Transactional Leadership (Eric Schleien) * Cultural Issues In The Hospital Industry (Eric Schleien) Took 9 Years To Develop ProxyActivism is a project that has taken 9 years to create over the course of thousands and thousands of hours to develop, and finally launch. This blog post will go into the background into how ProxyActivism came to be, our process, how I see this project unfolding, and how you as a value investor can be involved (and no, for all you cynical fucks, I’m not trying to sell you something) The Initial Insight My idea for ProxyActivism started when I did an ontological leadership program with a former Vice President of Disney who decided to quit his job and devote the rest of his life to empowering people. I got more in a few days of intense Socratic style inquiry than in all the years of reading books combined. As someone who relied on books to “get ahead” this was a completely new paradigm for me. Within the next few months, my income tripled, I repaired relationships with the people around me, and produced many more results. I figured there must be some application to business as well. And it turned out my intuition was right. The company had a consulting arm. The consulting arm of the organization was recently named one of the top consulting companies in the world by Forbes. At a lecture I attended at NYU, the preliminary internal data at the company was that their average client experienced a 600% increase in profits within 12 months. I thought to myself, “I wonder if I could combine ontological coaching with shareholder activism?” A Zero Competition Game I figured this must have already been done and figured I would go work for a hedge fund already doing this and get some experience under my belt. However, after searching, I could not find a single hedge fund that was doing activism this way. Even the funds that talked about so-called “transformations” at companies - were really just doing more “change management consulting” and not actually anything transformational. Nothing wrong with that, just not as reliable or as effective. So I became very frustrated that I could not find a single hedge fund playing this game called transform companies. I knew I was missing something. Every single business study on this kind of work showed results that any shareholder activist would be salivating over, this was clear alpha, and a low competition game with very high barriers to entry. (If the barriers to entry were low, I would not be writing about this or even talking about this). Why Is Nobody Already Doing This? I knew I was missing something but couldn’t figure out what. This was the best idea I ever had in my life for a business and also seemingly the lowest hanging fruit. I just couldn’t get why nobody had taken this on before. And then it became quite clear. I called 37 different hedge funds or investment managers that were engaged in some kind of activism. I was excited and figured they would all be competing for me to implement this idea at their fund. I had this vision that I would develop this business as a fund, make a ton of money, and make a ton of people (including myself) extremely successful in this world. These “so-called” rational people however became quite cynical. Not skeptical and open. Cynical and closed off. I couldn’t believe it. Some of them told me this was not their wheelhouse and they were going to stick to what they already knew. Ok fine, I can get that. But an unwillingness to learn something new? Whatever happened to expanding the circle of competence in a low-risk manner that would not take up a lot of time? Interesting. However, there were also managers that told me it sounded like bullshit, that the results sounded too good to be true. I asked them if they wanted me to share with them all the independent case studies out there. Not one person was interested. The Challenge: Combining Two Domains Now I was intrigued. Ontological coaching is so outside the realm of these managers because you can’t measure it directly as a function of cause and effect. I started to see that all business management tools and techniques were based on cause and effect and that these managers, while extremely smart at reading numbers or learning about different management techniques, were also completely immature around their thinking when it came to leadership, ontology, and anything transformational in nature. They were inappropriately trying to apply their pre-existing models for management techniques onto a leadership conversation as that was their box of awareness/logic system. Anything outside of that - it was like their thinking-brain just shut down and their survival-lizard brain went into automatic. It was outstanding to watch very intellectually smart people start spewing nonsense trying to make sense of something they had no understanding of into other models that were not relevant to this conversation. Long-story-short, they were unable to or unwilling to get it -- regardless of decades worth of data and case studies. I figured, fuck these guys, I’ll just work with consultants who already have a great track record of transforming businesses and share with them how doing the work they are already doing in the context of a fund structure would be much more lucrative than charging a rate on their time. The first person I went to was the CEO of this large consulting arm that had a several-decade long track record of doing ontological/transformational work with businesses, many that are in the billions of dollars in market cap. The CEO was extremely friendly on the phone with me but he flat out said that his company was going to stick to what they do best and not get involved in investing or starting a fund which he saw akin to gambling and “playing the market”. Fuck…... Was this why the idea hadn’t been done before? I reached out to another woman I knew who for 20 years had been producing amazing results with very large businesses charging $5,000/hour for her services. I spent a month outlining an entire business plan and then did a call with her presenting her with the idea. I again explained how if she did what she did in a fund structure she’d make more than her already lucrative $5,000/hour and would be able to generate even more business as the stock price performance would be worth more in marketing than anything she was currently able to do right now. I wanted her to be the woman that when a guy like Bill Ackman or Carl Icahn needed extra support, they could give her a call. She told me that she wanted to stick to what she was good at and not get involved in the stock market or hedge funds. Holy fucking shit!!!!!! It was becoming very clear to me why this had never been done before. The ontological coaching world didn’t know shit about investing and their brains would shut down. They were more akin to getting involved with startups, sexy industries, and today would be into things like Crypto and 3D printing. Again, all worthy pursuits but not to combine value investing/shareholder activism/ontological coaching together. Resignation & Cynicism On the flip side, many great investors are great because they are resigned and cynical by nature. Where is management lying to me? How are the books being cooked? Even people reading this article, many great investors may be reading this with their automatic little inner voice saying somet…
57 min
Alpha Exchange
Alpha Exchange
Dean Curnutt
Troy Dixon, Founder and CIO, Hollis Park Partners
Cutting his teeth on the acclaimed mortgage trading desk at Salomon Brothers in the 90’s, Troy Dixon gained an early appreciation for the speed and degree to which market liquidity can turn. Now the CIO of Hollis Park Partners, a firm he founded in 2013, Troy shares the perspectives gathered in managing complex trading risk over more than two decades in markets. We talk about his time at Deutsche Bank, where he ran the RMBS trading unit, and the intense pressure to compete in the pre-crisis period for profitability in each aspect of the mortgage lifecycle. Contemplating the asset price wreckage in the aftermath of the housing crash, Troy recounts the challenges in balancing the competing interests of providing market making services for the firm’s client base while risk managing a volatile book of prop exposures. Next, we discuss Troy’s founding of Hollis Park and the path that he has sought to provide for other professionals of color in the financial industry. In thinking back on the heavy lift he undertook, Troy said, “I was naive about a lot of things, but the core thesis of it was to lay the framework for people of color to follow suit in an industry that had created a plethora of wealth for people that don’t look like me.” A firm engaged in finding value in MBS and a variety of structured products, Hollis Park capitalizes on securities that have different prepayment speeds. No conversation with a fixed income expert would be complete without an assessment of Central Banks. And on the Fed, Troy has much to say. Calling low interest rates an addictive drug, Troy sees no obvious path for the Fed to disengage from markets, expecting ongoing volatility linked to this codependency. Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Troy Dixon.
46 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
115 The Systematic Investor Series ft Robert Carver – November 22nd, 2020
Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record.  Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following?  Do you recommend any hedging strategies? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive,  @MoritzSeibert & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:35 - Macro recap from Niels 4:59 - Weekly review of returns 27:16 - Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with? 37:36 - Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns?  Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions? 1:03:57 - Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models? 1:22:48 - Performance recap 1:23:48 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real Vision Subscribe on:
1 hr 28 min
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