Excess Returns
Excess Returns
Jan 3, 2021
The Importance of Expectations in Investing
Play • 12 min

There is a common misconception that a good company is always a good investment. But that sometimes isn't the case. The reason for that comes down to the role that expectations play in investing. Companies with good fundamentals typically have high expectations built into their stock price, while companies with poor fundamentals typically have low expectations embedded in their price. But either way, the key for investors is identifying companies where there is a gap between expectations and reality. In this episode, we look at the importance of expectations in investing and how investors can look at this issue. We also look at some systematic ways to take advantage of the differences between expectations and reality. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau


The Intelligent Investing Podcast
The Intelligent Investing Podcast
Eric Schleien
#139: Eric Schleien & Norma Belenky Discuss Finance Podcast Week
Join Eric Schleien with his guest Norma Belenky, the Head of Events of Podbean, as they talk about the evolution of media, Podbean’s exciting podcast features, and most especially the upcoming Finance Podcast Week. In this episode, Norma shares her story on getting into podcasting and the facet that sets apart a podcast. She also gives us a brief of the stimulating discussions, guests, and perks we can expect from Podbean’s event that every entrepreneur, investor, and alike will gain from. Stay tuned to their talk to catch a glimpse of Finance Podcast Week’s exciting lineup for everyone. About Podbean: Podbean is a podcast publishing and monetization service, providing free and premium hosting packages for individuals and businesses. Podbean offers a user-friendly interface that integrates publishing, management, syndication, and analysis tools into an easy-to-use podcasting package. Podbean: https://www.podbean.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NormaJeanBali/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/normajeanlovesdoodles/ Outline of the episode: * [01:12] What is Podbean, and what does it bring? * [02:32] The upcoming Finance Podcast Week: Guests, Topics, and Program. * [05:26] Elements of media changed by today’s podcasts. * [08:54] The freedom in Podcasts. * [09:41] Live features on Podbean’s Finance Podcast Week and what to expect. * [13:08] The technology, integrations, platforms, and accessibility of today. * [15:39] Ask the hosts, join in the conversation – Podbean Finance Week. * [18:23] Live podcasts + Pre-released episodes of participating podcasters. * [19:23] The dates to save… * [22:03] On getting into podcasts and becoming a part of Podbean. * [25:20] The community, collaborativeness, and openness that is in podcasting. * [26:37] What needs to be a part of podcasting? * [27:32] In the age of information overload, to stand out, you need to have… Resources: * For tickets, got to Finance Podcast Week * More info about the Finance Podcast Week * Podbean Live About Eric Schleien: Over the past decade, Eric has trained thousands of individuals, including board members of public companies as well as several Fortune 500 CEOs. Eric specializes in organizational culture and has become a leading authority on organizational culture in the investment industry. Eric has been investing for 15 years and has been using breakthrough coaching methodologies for over a decade. Eric had the insight to combine proven coaching methodologies with shareholder activism techniques to create an entirely new model for shareholder activism that was more reliable and created greater sustainable results in a rapid period of time. On average, Tribal Leadership produces a 3-5x increase in profits of culturally troubled companies within an average of 24 months or less. Eric currently resides in Philadelphia, PA. Help Out The Podcast If you like The Intelligent Investing Podcast, please consider leaving a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. It takes less than 30 seconds to do and makes a huge difference! You can also join the Facebook page! You can subscribe to the podcast on the following platforms: * Apple Podcasts * Stitcher * TuneIn * Spotify * Podbean * iHeart Radio * YouTube CONTACT ERIC SCHLEIEN Facebook | LinkedIn | Twitter | YouTube | GSCM | Instagram Email: IntelligentInvesting@gmail.com
29 min
The Acquirers Podcast
The Acquirers Podcast
Tobias Carlisle
Value: After Hours S03 E7 HELA cells, Energy, Inflation and Morality in Investing
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, Bill Brewster and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/  Jake's offer: http://farnam-street.com/vah Donate to the FinTwit Value vs Growth War here (it's for a good cause--The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention): https://www.gofundme.com/f/fintwit-war-value-vs-growth About Jake: Jake is a partner at Farnam Street. Jake's website: http://farnam-street.com/vah Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
1 hr 3 min
Capital Allocators
Capital Allocators
Ted Seides
Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)
Rostin Behnam is the Acting Chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. He was nominated and approved by the prior administration in 2017 to serve as one of five Commissioners of the CFTC and in January, accepted the role as Acting Chairman. The CFTC has a mission to promote the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy of the U.S. derivatives markets, working towards effective price discovery and risk management in fair and transparent markets. As a part of his role, Russ sponsors the CFTC’s Market Risk Advisory Committee. Our conversation covers the history, function and process of the CFTC and the Acting Chair’s path to the seat. We then discuss his perspective on crypto assets and dive into an exhaustive policy piece published last fall by his Market Risk Advisory Committee entitled “Managing Climate Risk in the Financial System.” The document is positioned to become the leading regulatory policy manual on financial climate risk for the new administration. Our conversation took place shortly before Russ rose to Acting Chairman and before the wild market volatility in recent weeks. We touched base about his perspective, but the situation is too fluid for a public response. Acting Chairman Behnam released brief statement about the silver markets that said, “The CFTC is closely monitoring recent activity in the silver markets. The Commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver, and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation.” Stay tuned, as the subject may well be fodder for another conversation down the road. _Learn More_ Subscribe: _Apple_ | _Spotify_ | _Google _ Follow Ted on twitter at _@tseides_ or _LinkedIn_ Subscribe _Monthly Mailing List _ Read the _Transcript _
1 hr 6 min
InvestED: The Rule #1 Investing Podcast
InvestED: The Rule #1 Investing Podcast
Phil Town & Danielle Town
305- The Role of Shorting in the Market
“There’s nothing evil, per se, about selling things short. Short sellers—the situations in which there have been huge short interests very often—very often have been later revealed to be frauds or semi-frauds.” — Warren Buffett Short selling, or shorting, plays an important role in public markets as it improves prices, rational capital allocation, prevents bubbles, and shines a light on fraud.   If investors think a stock's price is dropping, they can short the stock. They borrow shares and sell them with hopes of buying them back at lower prices. However, stocks can theoretically keep rising, which could cause losses. So the investors that short the stock will either have to put more money up to secure their position or close their positions.   Essentially, short selling exposes which companies' stock prices are too high. In their search for overvalued firms, short-sellers can discover inconsistencies or other questionable practices before the entire market does. Short sellers can almost be regarded as the “watchdogs” of the market.   A recent example of this is the Gamestop event which caused many investors to either gain or lose money, as shorting isn’t ideal for all investors. This is why it’s important to invest with your values—so you can invest with confidence and reduce your risk of making bad investing decisions.    When looking for companies to purchase, always consider the Four Ms: meaning, moat, management, and margin of safety. This is the first step you need to take when building your watchlist of companies you are interested in.   In today’s podcast, Phil and Danielle discuss the important role short sellers play in our market and why it’s important to invest with your values.   Learn about the Four Ms and how they can help you invest in the right businesses at the right time with this FREE guide I've created for you: http://bit.ly/3btAqhM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
47 min
Value Hive Podcast
Value Hive Podcast
Brandon Beylo
ARK Enters The Bear Cave w/ Edwin Dorsey
The Value Hive Podcast is brought to you by TIKR. Join the free beta today at TIKR.com/hive. They're constantly releasing new updates that make the platform better including a new Business Owner Mode that hides share count, market cap, and enterprise value. I couldn't be more excited to partner with TIKR. This week I chat with Edwin Dorsey, founder, and author of The Bear Cave. The Bear Cave is a short-focused newsletter dedicated to finding interesting companies doing sketchy things. Edwin began his obsession with the stock market in the second grade. As we discuss in the podcast, Edwin was born to be a short seller.  Our chat covers a few key topics around short-selling, including:  * What Makes A Great Short Idea (Hint: it's not "astronomical valuation") * The Importance of Shorting in Capital Markets * ETF Mechanics & The Impact of Front-Running Redemptions The bulk of the podcast focuses on the current ARK ETF dynamics and the potential of a severe redemption event. Edwin does a fantastic job describing the inner mechanics of ETFs and why the same "rails" that drove ARK up the AUM ladder could bring them down in the blink of an eye.  Here's the timestamp:  * [1:20] Is A Short Seller Born or Made?  * [4:10] What Makes A Great Short Idea?  * [8:00] Root Insurance $ROOT * [17:05] Interning at SEC Enforcement Division * [20:23] ARK Enters The Bear Cave * [35:12] What Makes 2021 Different Than The 2020 Flash Crash?  * [44:57] Vuzix Corp $VUZI * [58:04] Future of Bear Cave Newsletter * [61:00] Closing Questions If you like what you heard and you want to learn more about Edwin, check out these resources:  * Bear Cave Newsletter * Edwin Dorsey Twitter
1 hr 17 min
Value Investing with Legends
Value Investing with Legends
Columbia Business School
Anna Nikolayevsky - The Value of Independent Thought
Any sound investment strategy must include both a tactical and a structural component. The tactical side requires close attention to the firm’s financials and prospects, while the structural side puts that analysis in the specific context of the industry as well as the economy at large. Our guest, Anna Nikolayevsky, is here today to share her approach and how her investment strategy has evolved. Anna Nikolayevsky is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Axel Capital Management, a fundamentally driven long/short firm investing in equities across a variety of sectors and geographies. Before founding Axel Capital in 2002, Anna was an analyst at Zweig-DiMenna Associates and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Anna holds a BS from NYU, an MBA from Columbia Business School, and has also received multiple accolades for her investment work, including being the recipient of the Investors Choice Awards for Emerging Fund of 2015. She is a wonderful friend of the Centre and I'm incredibly thankful for all she does here for us at the Business School. On this episode, Anna and I discuss how her humble childhood ultimately impacted her career choice, starting in the world of trading as a freshman, her rich learning opportunities early in her career, what it was like to start her firm in the early 2000s, why she decided to depart from the traditional hedge fund model, her thoughts on the future of value investing, and so much more! Key Topics: * How Anna’s childhood influenced her career (3:08) * Anna’s transformative experience at Stuyvesant High School (5:17) * Anna’s start in the world of trading (6:43) * Why Anna decided to apply to Columbia Business School (8:14) * Insights from working for Mario Gabelli (9:09) * Establishing a foundation of independent thought (11:07) * Learning opportunities as an analyst at Goldman Sachs (12:32) * Why Anna made the move to a hedge fund (15:16) * The starting point for Axel Capital Management (16:29) * Axel Capital’s post-bubble success (18:38) * Rethinking the traditional hedge fund model (19:48) * The issues Anna identified in the housing market leading up to the global economic crisis (21:33) * Finding an alternative to the housing market (23:33) * How to think about your search strategy (25:19) * Timing and risk management of shorts (26:47) * Anna’s approach to risk management (27:56) * Thinking about fiscal policy and portfolio construction (29:12) * Axel Capital’s portfolio positioning during the ups and downs of the market since 2018 (30:57) * The wider effect of highly available capital (33:01) * How the pandemic has impacted Axel Capital’s portfolio structure (34:30) * Planning your approach to structural shocks (36:45) * Why Anna is comfortable with a relatively concentrated portfolio (38:46) * Axel Capital’s approach to industry analysis (40:09) * Decentralization away from Wall Street (41:31) * The democratization of trading (43:03) * My thoughts on the long-term impact of the increase in retail investors (44:03) * And much more! Thanks for Listening! Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at valueinvesting@gsb.columbia.edu. Follow the Heilbrunn Center on social media on Instagram, LinkedIn, and more!
46 min
Let's Talk ETFs
Let's Talk ETFs
Seeking Alpha
From Fad To Sustainable Trend: The ESG Juggernaut Continues To Pick Up Steam
Essentially unheard of a decade ago, investing strategies that screen holdings for compliance to Environmental, Social and Governance values have captured increasing investor interest. Tony Campos, Head of Sustainable Investment, Americas, FTSE Russell, joins the podcast to explain how the process of ESG screening works at FTSE Russell. Not wanting to leave things purely academic, we go under the hood of the two largest ETFs that track FTSE Russell Indexes, Vanguard's ESG U.S. (ESGV) and International (VSGX) ETFs. 2:30 - Meet Tony Campos, Head of Sustainable Investment, Americas, FTSE Russell. 4:00 - What are the origins of ESG investing? 6:45 - The "E" in ESG: What does FTSE Russell look for in companies that have positive environmental characteristics? 10:00 - Is it safe to say that energy companies will not end up in ESG portfolios? 14:30 - The "S" in ESG: What does FTSE Russell look for when building the social part of these indexes? 19:00 - How is it that a company like Facebook (FB) is a top 5 weighting in FTSE Russell Index trackers like the Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF (ESGV)? 24:00 - The "G" in ESG: What's the governance piece even doing here? 29:00 - Tax transparency and corporate tax shelters 32:30 - How do you ensure the accuracy of the ratings data? 36:45 - How do you select and weight index components? 42:30 - Does ESG investing mean exchanging values for performance? 44:30 - On ESG beyond equities: Fixed income and beyond 46:45 - The U.S. is catching up to rest of the world in its adoption of ESG Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
56 min
The Long View
The Long View
Morningstar
Hamish Douglass: On the Hunt for Super-Compounding Stocks
Our guest this week is Hamish Douglass. He is the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Magellan Financial Group, a roughly $80 billion asset-management firm with headquarters in Sydney. Among his duties, Douglass is lead manager of the Magellan Global Equity strategy, which is a concentrated portfolio of high-quality growth stocks. That strategy has been very successful since its July 2007 inception, handily beating its benchmark, the MSCI World Index, with significantly less risk. Before forming Magellan in 2006, Douglass was co-head of global banking for Deutsche Bank in Australia and New Zealand. He received his undergraduate degree from the University of New South Wales. Background Bio Frontier MFG Global Equity "The Essential Balance: Independent Thinker, Team Player," by Rebecca Thurlow, _The Wall Street Journal_, Dec. 11, 2006. "Learn More About Magellan's Global Equity Strategy," Magellan, July 2019. "Being a Successful Investor," by Hamish Douglass, MFG Asset Management. Investment Style and Portfolio Construction "10 Cognitive Biases That Can Lead to Investment Mistakes," by Hamish Douglass, Magellan, May 2017. "Business Model Disruption Has Barely Begun," by Hamish Douglass, Firstlinks, Oct. 15, 2017. "Business Model Disruption--Part 2," by Hamish Douglass, Firstlinks, Oct. 19, 2017. "Passive Investing and Disruption," by Hamish Douglass, Magellan, July 2017. “13 of the best: reflections from an investor,” by Hamish Douglass, _Firstlinks_, July 31, 2019. "Hamish Douglass' Map for Investing This Decade," by Vesna Poljak, _Financial Review_, Jan. 24, 2020. "Hamish Douglass on What Really Matters," by Hamish Douglass and Frank Casarotti, Firstlinks, Oct. 21, 2020. "What Sort of Economy Awaits on the Other Side? Hamish Douglass Shares Four Possibilities," by Vishal Teckchandani, _Livewire_, April 1, 2020. "Magellan to Offer Low-Cost Investment Strategies," by Charlotte Grieve, _The Sydney Morning Herald_, Aug. 13, 2020. "China's Clampdown on Jack Ma's Ant Boosts Rivals," by Sun Yu and Tom Mitchell, _Financial Times_, Feb. 18, 2021.
50 min
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