Excess Returns
Excess Returns
Nov 25, 2020
Is Value Investing Dead?
Play • 34 min

Value investing has struggled for over a decade now. Although no one will dispute that fact, there are significant disagreements about whether this is just another of the long periods of underperformance that have been common in the history of value or if something about the strategy has become broken. 

In the first year of our podcast, we have talked to some of the smartest people we know in the investing world about this topic, including Jim O'Shaughnessy, Tobias Carlisle, Adam Butler, Partha Mohanram, Wes Gray, Vitaliy Katselnelson, and Kai Wu, and have received a diverse set of opinions. 

In this episode, we bring together all of those insights in an effort to answer one question: Is Value Investing Dead? 


Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.










Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094


Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The Intelligent Investing Podcast
The Intelligent Investing Podcast
Eric Schleien
#131 - Jeremy Raper on his 2021 Investment Strategy, SNEX, BWMX, Peabody Bonds, and TikTok Investors
Summary In this episode, I bring Jeremy Raper of Raper Capital back on the show to discuss his 2021 Investment Playbook. We also do a recap of some of the investments from 2020. You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Show Notes 0:37 - Corona Update 1:34 - The easy money has been made, so now what? 2:46 - Market crises 4:51 - Short-term pain 5:59 - 2021 Investing Playbook 10:47 - Stonex Group (SNEX) 12:14 - Junior Canadian Copper Miners 14:27 - SPAC Warrant Arbitrage 15:57 - Hyliion Holdings Corp (HYLN) 16:06 - Nikola (NKLA) Warrant Spread 18:01 - Robinhood Punters 18:46 - TikTok Investors 24:32 - The Oil & Gas Industry 28:46 - Peabody Energy (BTU) Bonds 29:57 - Canadian Smallcaps 30:19 - Looking outside the United States 31:10 - Betterware de Mexico SAB de CV (BWMX) 43:52 - Martin Werner About Eric Schleien Over the past decade, Eric has trained thousands of individuals including board members of public companies as well as several Fortune 500 CEOs. Eric specializes in organizational culture and has become a leading authority on organizational culture in the investment industry. Eric has been investing for 15 years and has been using breakthrough coaching methodologies for over a decade. Eric had the insight to combine proven coaching methodologies with shareholder activism techniques to create an entirely new model for shareholder activism that was more reliable and created greater sustainable results in a rapid period of time. On average, Tribal Leadership produces a 3-5x increase in profits of culturally troubled companies within an average of 24 months or less. Eric currently resides in Philadelphia, PA. Help Out The Podcast If you like The Intelligent Investing Podcast, please consider leaving a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. It takes less than 30 seconds to do and makes a huge difference! You can also join the Facebook page! You can subscribe to the podcast on the following platforms: * Apple Podcasts * Stitcher * TuneIn * Spotify * Podbean * iHeart Radio * YouTube CONTACT ERIC SCHLEIEN Facebook | LinkedIn | Twitter | YouTube | GSCM | Instagram Email: IntelligentInvesting@gmail.com
54 min
Sound Investing
Sound Investing
Paul Merriman
How do you invest in retirement when interest rates are so low? And 7 other important questions.
Paul introduces Don McDonald, Co-Founder of  Vestory Investment Advisory and co-host of "Talking Real Money" podcast, who will be producing “money minutes” for most of our podcasts. Don also produced the soon-to-be-released audio version for our latest book, We’re Talking Millions!. Paul discusses the upcoming Retiremeet America 2021 free online conference on Feb. 20, 8:00 a.m.-1:00 p.m. PT. See the list of speakers, topics, speaking times and registration form at https://retiremeet.com  Paul and David Booth, Co-Founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, are keynoting the conference. Before addressing the Q&A's Paul discusses an article, “Deep Risk in the United States of America,” by Ben Carlson. Ben is on Paul’s list of Truth Tellers and highly recommends Ben's articles and podcasts at https://awealthofcommonsense.com/. * Larry motivates Paul to discuss the question: What changes should a pre-retiree make to their portfolio when they have saved enough to retire, even though they are planning to work longer? 19:00 * What asset allocation should I have when I reach retirement but don’t need the money to live on? 23:40 * How would you suggest someone who is currently in cash get back into the market? 31:22 Don McDonald’s “Talking Real Money” — The risks in owning bonds * With bond yields so low do you expect retirement returns to be significantly lower than in your tables?  38:57 * In a recent newsletter we mentioned a presentation by Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice. The focus of the presentation was what happens when people are offered too many choices. We linked to a college presentation that got into other topics not of interest to us.  Here is a shorter presentation and very popular TED Talk with over 15 million views: https://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwartz_the_paradox_of_choice?language=en   45:10 * In your 2012 book, First Time Investor, you were not in favor of target date funds. What has changed that you now recommend them? 60:40 * Do you really think the S&P is going to beat Berkshire Hathaway over the next 10 years? 57:45 * I know an investment advisor who made 29% a year over the last 2 years and he has all of his own money in the portfolio he wants me to use —individual stocks, not index funds. Is this investment philosophy a fool's errand and am I falling for a siren’s song? 1:06:35
1 hr 21 min
Marketplace Roundtable
Marketplace Roundtable
Seeking Alpha
The Value Investor's Edge Live #29: Navigating Product Tanker Markets With Ardmore Shipping (ASC)
Paul Tivnan, CFO of Ardmore Shipping (ASC), a leading product tanker shipping company, joined J Mintzmyer's Value Investor's Edge Live on Nov. 17, 2020, to discuss the product tanker markets and forward capital allocation priorities. Ardmore trades at a nearly 50% discount to net asset value, so their repurchase program is of particular interest. This interview and discussion of the underlying product markets is relevant for anyone with tanker investments or interests, including Diamond S (DSSI), DHT Holdings (DHT), Euronav (EURN), Frontline (FRO), International Seaways (INSW), Navios Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Teekay Tankers (TNK), Torm (TRMD), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics Covered (<1:20) Intro/Disclosures (1:30) Update on product tanker market? Any near-term optimism?  (6:00) What is the expected impact of new refineries on ton mileage?  (8:30) How much is lower jet fuel demand impacting trade?  (10:30) Updated capital allocation policy? Repurchases?  (13:45) Levers to build liquidity? Timeframe for repurchase program?  (17:30) Commentary on repurchase program. Interest in selling ships?  (22:30) Focus on per share returns for capital allocation?  (24:50) What is your current estimate of ‘excess liquidity?’  (28:00) Justification for rejecting HAFNIA offer? Trading below that range?  (32:50) How do your ‘Eco-Mod’ ships compare to Eco-Design ships?  (35:15) Differentiating factors of ASC's chemical tankers?  (37:00) Reasonable timeline for product tanker markets to normalize? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
43 min
Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
122 Systematic Investor Episode ft Robert Carver – January 10th, 2021
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 3:07 - Macro recap from Niels 3:59 - Weekly review of returns 47:20 - Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally? 54:42 - Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio? 1:02:30 - Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions? 1:08:46 - Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment? 1:14:37 - Performance recap 1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine's articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: 'Gamblers' & Tim Harford's Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine Subscribe on:
1 hr 22 min
Let's Talk ETFs
Let's Talk ETFs
Seeking Alpha
Ain't Nothing But A 5G Thing: A Deep Dive Into The Top Performing 5G ETF (WUGI)
The focus of a multitude of conspiracy theories across the nether regions of the internet, the returns provided by playing the move to 5G have been anything but fake. According to Esoterica Capital CEO Bruce Liu, the move to 5G is not so much an upgrade to an existing tech cycle as a re-envisioning of the entire tech stack. Investors should take note when Liu discusses anything 5G-related: his firm's flagship ETF, WUGI, has doubled up on peers FIVG and NXTG since launching in late March, returning nearly 100%. Show Notes Show Notes 4:00 - What exactly is 5G? Defining the parameters of the conversation 9:15 - The 5G investing universe: Which sectors stand to benefit the most? 13:15 - "A re-envisioning of the entire tech stack": 5G, the Internet of Things, and autonomous driving 16:15 - Liar, liar, cellphone tower on fire: Why is there so much conspiracy thinking around the move to 5G? 20:00 - WUGI vs. FIVG vs. NXTG: In a space this fluid, does active trump passive? 29:30 - The move to 4G vs. to 5G: All in on the chipmakers (AMD) (QCOM) (TSM) (NVDA); avoiding the handset manufacturers (AAPL) (SSNLF) and networking players (NOK) (ERIC) this time around 38:30 - What's WUGI's research and stock selection process? 43:00 - A word on position sizing 45:15 - How "active" is WUGI? Reviewing annual turnover 50:00 - What are large FAANG type stocks like Netflix (NFLX) and Facebook (FB) doing in the portfolio? 55:00 - A name in the portfolio that will drive performance in the coming year: Meituan (MPNGF) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
1 hr 6 min
The Long View
The Long View
Steve Chen: 'How Do You Deliver Lifetime Income?'
Our guest on the podcast today is Steve Chen. Steve is the founder and CEO of NewRetirement.com, which he describes as a TurboTax for financial planning. NewRetirement advisors also offer one-on-one financial advice and coaching with certified financial planners. Prior to founding NewRetirement, Steve founded venture-backed companies in education and financial services and worked as a consultant at firms including Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Dimensional Fund Advisors. He also hosts the NewRetirement podcast and contributes to Forbes. Steve received his Bachelor of Science in systems engineering from Boston University. Background Bio NewRetirement.com Retirement Planning “Podcast: Nobel Prize Winner Robert Merton on Fixing Retirement,” by Steve Chen, newretirement.com, July 5, 2018. “The Future of Retirement Planning Is Already Here, It’s Just Not Evenly Distributed,” by Stephen Chen, soa.org, 2018. “Why Retirement Decumulation Is the New Accumulation,” by Stephen Chen, forbes.com, Sept. 30, 2019. “5 Steps to Ensure Your Money Lasts Through Retirement,” by Steve Chen, moneytalksnews.com, Jan. 6, 2021. The Pandemic & Retirement “2021: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly,” by Stephen Chen, forbes.com, Sept. 7, 2020. “Kerry Hannon: Remote Work Trend Benefits Older Workers,” The Long View Podcast with Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak, Morningstar.com, Oct. 21, 2020. “The Most Dangerous Age for Retirement,” by Stephen Chen, forbes.com, Nov. 1, 2020. Spending & Withdrawal Rates “Tax-Efficient Retirement Withdrawal Strategies,” by Stephen Chen, forbes.com, Dec. 17, 2018. “5 Mistakes to Avoid When Shopping for Annuities,” by Steve Chen, newretirement.com, June 27, 2020. “5 Steps for Defining Your Retirement Drawdown Strategy,” by Steve Chen, newretirement.com, June 29, 2020. “The Pros and Cons of Annuities: How to Evaluate Annuities for Your Retirement,” by Kathleen Coxwell, newretirement.com, Sept. 15, 2020. “Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates,” The Long View Podcast with Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak, Morningstar.com, Oct. 14, 2020. Zvi Bodie Social Security & Long-Term Care “The Actual Costs of Long-Term Health Care,” by Kathleen Coxwell, newretirement.com, July 3, 2020. “Changes Coming to Social Security & Medicare: Small COLA and 6 Other New Developments for 2021,” by Kathleen Coxwell, newretirement.com, Oct. 14, 2020. “Serious Medical Crisis: Many Retirees Will Require Long-Term Care, but Few Will Be Able to Afford It,” newretirement.com.
47 min
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