Apr 9, 2023
70. scenario planning: what if something outrages happens?
Scenario planning are answering the big 'what if' questions. It's not just the likely scenario, the most common what if's, but also highly unlikely. Only one company in the 1970's had scenario's on 'what if OPEC limits oil severely'. That was Shell, that profited from the crisis and became the worlds largest oil company.
In TA we don't do enough scenario planning and most people don't even know what it means. So in this episode we try to do in 30 minutes what normally takes half a day to a full day. And we only look at one option, while a good scenario plan has several.
In this episode we answer the question:
We work at a large retailer in Germany.
What if hourly work is outlawed?
The reason we chose this is that on the one had, it seems far fetched and outrages, on the other had, the Dutch have just initiated a law basically doing just that. What are the option a large retailer than has? We discuss them, see pro's and con's and come to a conclusion.
Again, this is all in a pressure cooker style, while a good scenario planning exercise usually lasts between half a day and a day and has several people with different backgrounds in the teams.