May 3, 2021
3 May 2021 - Low Default Rates
Have low defaults stymied productivity? Like a magic show, Central Banks (CBs) have become the magicians while the audience is everyone else (Government, Markets). Default rates are not far away from their lowest (2007 before sub-prime started to blow up). Today they are only c3.5% - despite enduring Covid19, endless fiscal and monetary stimulus, rising yields and upwardly rising inflation. Debt has soared but, amidst all the initiatives by CBs at buying it back for QE operations and supporting markets (corporate debt, ETFs……to name a few), effectively there is a giant CB PUT option in place (a safety net) designed to prevent companies from collapsing in almost all sectors. Each cycle brings with it an even bigger round of debt stimulus and so the cycle goes on – until it doesn’t. What Covid19 has done is to enable tech savvy companies to forge ahead while many others are bailed out. Some are investing in new capital equipment and modernising production but CAPEX data is still…