RNZ: Caucus
RNZ: Caucus
Sep 27, 2017
Coalition negotiations, THAT press conference & the supermarket dash
Play episode · 39 min
In our 13th Caucus, it's negotiation time. So we look at Winston Peters' post-election posturing, 'constitutional conventions' and what New Zealand First needs from the next three years. Plus, we unpack the election results and what they mean for the parties.
The Mike Hosking Breakfast
The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Newstalk ZB
Mike Hosking: Too much commentary on housing ignores reality
Some folks we know retired last week. They retired young. She will do a bit of work from their beach house which has become their main house due to the fact they sold their house in town for a lot of money, and as a result, they don’t have to work again. Their story is the story of the New Zealand real estate dream. They are well under 60, they bought the house they sold years ago for what seems like pocket change, did a few renos, made a killing. Got a pre-auction offer- 25 bids at the day of the auction itself – and sold it, got the cash and retired to the beach. So Covid for them has allowed, one, her to be at the beach and do a bit of remote work if she wants, and two, seen the value of their home reach a point they could not be happier with. It is the story of many New Zealanders, it is the story too many of the economists and worriers and overseas report writers have never understood. Too much commentary on housing is based on what could go wrong. The bubbles, the prices, the LVRs, the access. If there was an article written for every person who did well on housing vs every so called person who’s been locked out of the market we might restore a bit of the balance. Even with record numbers of first home buyers in the market we are still inundated with tales of woe and disaster. A bubble was bursting this year. A bubble was bursting in the GFC. Once again, let’s bring reality into the equation; a bubble has never burst on New Zealand property. In the worst of days it sinks maybe 5 to 10 %, in between it rises up to 100 %. The people at the beach by the way are not high flyers. They’re not rich; they would not stand out in a crowd. There simply another example of the thousands of New Zealanders who understand housing, like housing, see housing as their retirement, and ultimately have made their kiwi dream come  true
2 min
Policy Forum Pod
Policy Forum Pod
Policy Forum Pod
The future of work in the wake of COVID-19
This week on Policy Forum Pod, we’re joined by politician and economist Andrew Leigh, workplace researcher Carys Chan, and consultant Ben Hamer to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the working lives of Australians. For many people their working patterns have changed dramatically in 2020, with more working from home, an increased reliance on internet and online communication, and some additional flexibility. But what will the world of work look like after the crisis passes? How can policymakers assist individuals and businesses adjust to these changes? And what do these changes mean for some of Australia’s most vulnerable citizens? On this episode of Policy Forum Pod, we discuss the COVID-19 crisis and the future of work with economist and Shadow Assistant Minister for Treasury and Charities Dr Andrew Leigh, lecturer at Griffith University’s School of Applied Psychology Dr Carys Chan, and Director and Future of Work Lead at PwC Australia Dr Ben Hamer. Ben Hamer is Director and Future of Work Lead at PwC Australia. He is also an Adjunct Fellow at Swinburne University. Carys Chan is a Lecturer in Organisational Psychology at the School of Applied Psychology, Griffith University in Brisbane and an Early Work Fellow at the Work and Family Researchers Network. Andrew Leigh MP is the Member for Fenner in the ACT and Shadow Assistant Minister for Treasury and Charities. Prior to his election in 2010, Andrew was a professor of economics at The Australian National University. Martyn Pearce is a presenter for Policy Forum Pod and the Editor of Policy Forum. Policy Forum Pod is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Subscribe on Android or wherever you get your podcasts. We’d love to hear your feedback for this podcast series! Send in your questions, comments, or suggestions for future episodes to podcast@policyforum.net. You can also Tweet us @APPSPolicyForum or join us on the Facebook group.   See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
49 min
Politics with Michelle Grattan
Politics with Michelle Grattan
The Conversation
Politics with Michelle Grattan: economist Danielle Wood on Australia's 'blokey' budget
Mick Tsikas/AAP In his budget reply, Anthony Albanese said women have suffered most during the pandemic, but were reduced to a footnote in the budget. He promised a Labor government would undertake a generous reshaping of the childcare subsidy to enable more women to join the workforce or to work more hours. This week, Michelle Grattan talks to Grattan Institute CEO Danielle Wood who, in writing for the Australian Financial Review, described the budget as “blokey”: “We look at those areas that have received direct support - construction… the energy sector, defence, manufacturing, all of those areas where the government has put direct money into a particular sector - they tend to be male dominated sectors. "And actually often they’re not the ones that have taken the hardest hit in this recession. "The sectors that have been hit really hard: hospitality, tourism, the arts, recreation, administrative services tend to be actually slightly more female dominated… we really don’t see any direct assistance for those sectors in the budget. ” When asked about the budget generally Wood, the president of the Economic Society of Australia, is concerned all the eggs have been put into the “private sector basket”. “If it doesn’t pay off, then we may see unemployment sticking around for a long time to come.” In the Grattan institute’s report, co-authored by Wood, and titled Cheaper Childcare, Wood endorsed reform in a similar vein to Albanese’s proposal. “Our numbers suggest that for every dollar that you spend reforming the subsidy…you return more than two dollars in additional GDP,” she says. “The Labor reforms… you’re probably talking, if its $2 billion a year… something in the vicinity of $5 billion return each year for GDP.” Additional audio A List of Ways to Die, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive. Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
17 min
Economy Watch
Economy Watch
Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ
Markets dive as pandemic bites harder
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the combination of bad pandemic policies and a coming winter look worrying for northern hemisphere economies. First up today, Wall Street is falling rather sharply, and is down -2.7% in mid afternoon trade and getting worse by the hour. Overnight, European markets were also down sharply with Frankfurt down -3.7%, Paris down -1.9% and London down -1.2%. There was no indication these markets would drop from Asian trading yesterday; Shanghai was off -0.8% but Hong Kong was up +0.5% and Tokyo was flat. The ASX200 ended yesterday down a minor -0.2%. But terrible European pandemic developments are setting back the European economy in a major way, and it threatens to be is just as bad in the US. However, looking back, the American National Activity Index released by the Chicago Fed shows a small improvement from August, but it just seems to be the final bounceback echo from the huge March and April dive. The latest Fed regional factory survey to be released is from Texas and that reported expanding conditions. New orders are rising, but employment growth seems to have stalled there. Although new home sales dipped in September and the August data was revised lower, the 2020 levels are still very high and very much higher than the same level a year ago. This part of their housing market is booming just like the existing home market as the demand for 'more space' rises in the pandemic. At the end of this week, the first estimate of the US Q3-2020 GDP is due to be released. Analysts see a +32% rise from Q2, making back much of the -31% fall in Q2. (It's an intricacy of arithmetic, but to make back all of the Q2 fall, the Q3 rise would need to be up +46% - so they will still be running very much slower than the year-ago level.) In Singapore, their September industrial production came in surprisingly positive. After rising a sharp +15% year-on-year in August, they were expected to hold that increase with a modest +2.5% rise in September. But in fact the September gain was a spectacular +24% leap and largely driven by their drug industry ("biomedical manufacturing"). China's full-year crude steel output in 2020 is expected to jump above 1 billion tonnes for the first time ever. In China iron ore prices are staying high (+40% in 2020) but have stopped increasing. However, steel making coal prices are back rising fast again (+16% in 2020). And prices for corn are racing higher as the local grain harvest is late (+30% in 2020) even if officials claim it will be a full one. Chinese import demand is causing shipping rates to stay high. In Hong Kong and Shanghai, the world's largest IPO is about to take place, bigger even than the US$29 bln Saudi Aramco listing. Alibaba's Jack Ma is floating his Ant fintech company and it is expected to value the enterprise at US$35 bln. More data out of Taiwan is impressing. Their September industrial production rose by more than +10% compared with the year-ago levels, and much faster than the good +4% growth in August. Export orders are driving this. By comparison, their nearly +3% rise in retail sales looks tame. In Australia, their housing market is surging, with last weekend's auction clearance rates exceeding 80% in Sydney and 73% in Melbourne. Victoria is now set for a pandemic re-opening and that will bring an economic rebound which will no doubt include housing. The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 43,216,000 and up +386,000 since yesterday. It is first-world countries that seem to be having the most difficulty containing the new wave. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,156,000. The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +46,000 since yesterday to 8,899,000 as a weekend tally. In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 27,527 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +7 more cases than we reported yesterday with zero in Victoria. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps today at just on 0.79%. The price of gold has had a slight rise, up +US$3 to US$1904/oz. And that is little-changed from the same level it was this time last week. Oil prices are very much lower today, down -US$1.50/bbp to now at just on US$38.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$40.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is still at 66.8 USc and little-changed. Against the Australian dollar we firmed yesterday to 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we at 56.5 euro cents. And that means our TWI-5 is now at 70. The bitcoin price starts today a little softer at US$12,919 with a -0.8% slip. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes. And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We will do this again tomorrow.
5 min
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