FiveThirtyEight Politics
FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver
Subscribe
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
Available episodes
Newest first
Oldest first
1 day ago
The GOP Field Gets Crowded
By the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are all expected to jump into the race this week. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses how these candidates might shape the race.
Also, the Republican National Committee announced the date and criteria for the first primary debate last Friday. The polling criteria are pretty notable, as there may not be that many polls that actually qualify. So is that a good or bad use of polling? And over the weekend, President Biden signed into law a suspension of the debt ceiling through January 2025 along with some cuts to federal spending.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 30, 2023
There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now
In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isn’t passed by next Monday. They also discuss the significant increase in laws involving sexuality and gender in Republican-led states and what Americans think about them. And Galen speaks with senior writer Monica Potts about her new book, "The Forgotten Girls."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 25, 2023
The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump.
In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bid will look like. In FiveThirtyEight's national GOP primary polling averages, Trump currently leads at around 54 percent with DeSantis at around 20 percent, although these things can change quickly in a primary environment. In fact, they already have: Just a couple months ago, Trump’s lead over DeSantis was half of what it is today.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 22, 2023
Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nation’s debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Post join the crew to weigh in.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 18, 2023
Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?
Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine whether there really are biases advantaging or disadvantaging certain nations.
Galen also speaks with Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center, who recently published a study showing that the polling industry of today bears little semblance to the polling industry at the start of the century. The days of real human beings randomly dialing landline phones are gone, but what does that mean for the accuracy of public opinion research?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 15, 2023
Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel
On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And they look at how the public is reacting to last week's scandals involving former President Donald Trump and New York Rep. George Santos.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 11, 2023
How Immigration Shapes American Politics
Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration.
In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impacts on the U.S. and its politics, and how that compares with other countries.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 8, 2023
Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?
King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling.
They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a very early 2024 matchup. And they talk about the 2024 Senate races that are taking shape. Republican challengers to vulnerable Democratic incumbents are announcing their bids, and a number of them are repeat candidates from the 2022 midterms.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 4, 2023
How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live
For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt.
In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book, "The Great Displacement," this time it won’t be cheap housing, low taxes and plentiful jobs that attract people to new places. It will be a harshening climate that pushes them away.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 1, 2023
Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024
President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring.
They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged to.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 24, 2023
Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?
Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all.
They also dig into new data on America’s most and least popular senators and governors, and ask which animals American are and aren't willing to eat.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 21, 2023
Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-themed trivia.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 17, 2023
The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion
The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for now the status quo stands, but in this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about where things could go from here.
They also discuss South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s pitch to Republican voters after the launch of his exploratory committee for president, and the potential impact of Montana Republicans’ attempts to change the state’s election laws for the 2024 U.S. Senate race.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 13, 2023
Americans Are Feeling Better These Days
According to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely “a lot of the day yesterday,” down from a pandemic high of 25 percent. Galen Druke speaks with director of the National Health and Well-Being Index, Dan Witters, to get an understanding of what American life satisfaction looks like today.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 10, 2023
The Politics Of AI
How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent poll on AI was and why politicians have been slow to regulate it.
They also turn their attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House and a ruling from a federal judge in Texas that would revoke federal approval of a drug used in medication abortions.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 5, 2023
The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday
Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the country’s purplest states and its third-largest city. In Wisconsin, voters chose the liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz by a double-digit margin, flipping the ideological orientation of the court. And in Chicago, voters chose progressive Brandon Johnson as their next mayor in a very close race, ultimately rejecting the tough-on-crime alternative. The crew covers it all in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 3, 2023
Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023
The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of power on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the next mayor of Chicago. The crew also discusses former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 31, 2023
Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 30, 2023
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart
In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on guns, tax and spending plans and identity.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 27, 2023
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)
After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of America’s favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling?
Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how they’re thinking about 2024?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 23, 2023
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?
All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political impact of an indictment.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 20, 2023
The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back
The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 16, 2023
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census
The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 13, 2023
Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998
Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 9, 2023
Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm
Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 6, 2023
The Poll That Ended Dilbert
Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger?
They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 2, 2023
Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'
American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis,” New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve.
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 27, 2023
How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear
To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book “Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.” James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 21, 2023
What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection
It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 16, 2023
Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?
This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 13, 2023
American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted
The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. We’re still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics.
They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Biden’s recent dismissal of the polls is a “good or bad use of polling.”
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 8, 2023
Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech
President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 6, 2023
How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 2, 2023
The Politics Of Loneliness
Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 30, 2023
There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023
Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 26, 2023
Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.
In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today — politically, economically, culturally — have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Galen speaks with him.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 23, 2023
What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common
The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 17, 2023
California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy
Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 12, 2023
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?
As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the final episode.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 9, 2023
What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP
The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 2, 2023
How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics
Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the second episode.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 26, 2022
Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident
Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the first episode.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 22, 2022
The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump
As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 19, 2022
What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms
Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 15, 2022
Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?
As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 12, 2022
We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022
With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 7, 2022
How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff
The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 5, 2022
Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race
Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 1, 2022
Is Democracy All Good Now?
Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 28, 2022
If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?
Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 21, 2022
How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP
Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 16, 2022
Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?
Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 14, 2022
Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022
Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 10, 2022
When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate
Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned from this election so far.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 9, 2022
The Red Wave Didn't Happen
In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that doesn’t stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didn’t make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 7, 2022
The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk
Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters’ performance this cycle.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 4, 2022
The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending
The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 2, 2022
How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?
Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 31, 2022
The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge
With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 27, 2022
Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk
In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next month’s midterms.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 24, 2022
How A College Education Divides American Voters
The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 20, 2022
Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs!
Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value — but also shouldn't undercut the poll.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 17, 2022
The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022
The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 13, 2022
Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?
Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 10, 2022
From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms?
It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 6, 2022
Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?
The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 3, 2022
What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?
The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 29, 2022
There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress
Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk."
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 26, 2022
Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats
The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 22, 2022
Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists?
Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 19, 2022
Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?
The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022.
Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 15, 2022
It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 12, 2022
Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?
The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 6, 2022
What To Expect Between Now And Election Day
Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 1, 2022
Why Sarah Palin Lost
Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 29, 2022
Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?
The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyze why Biden’s approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 24, 2022
If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble
Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 22, 2022
The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them
What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trump’s actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 17, 2022
What Liz Cheney Might Do Next
Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 15, 2022
Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?
In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 10, 2022
Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle
The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 8, 2022
Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?
The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 3, 2022
Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion
The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 1, 2022
All The Political News You Missed Last Week
The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 25, 2022
The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 18, 2022
Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 14, 2022
Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?
In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 11, 2022
The Supreme Court Episode
With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 5, 2022
Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?
The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 30, 2022
The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!
The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 27, 2022
What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now
The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 24, 2022
Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 21, 2022
Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?
The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 15, 2022
More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley
Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 13, 2022
Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?
The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 8, 2022
Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?
The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 6, 2022
The Democratic Divides In California
The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 31, 2022
Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?
The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 25, 2022
Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails
The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 23, 2022
Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?
The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 18, 2022
What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November
The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 16, 2022
Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?
The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 12, 2022
The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws
Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 9, 2022
How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States
The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 4, 2022
The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 2, 2022
Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft
The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 28, 2022
How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right
As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 25, 2022
Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft
The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft).
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 21, 2022
Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency
Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 18, 2022
How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office?
The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 14, 2022
Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism
Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 11, 2022
Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington
The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 7, 2022
Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree?
As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Apr 4, 2022
Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?
The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the “Parental Rights In Education Bill” -- or what its critics call the “Don’t Say Gay Bill” -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 31, 2022
How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue
Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 28, 2022
Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away?
The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 24, 2022
The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings
Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 21, 2022
The Most Consequential Governor’s Races
Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governor’s race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 17, 2022
What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP?
The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 14, 2022
The Political Price Of Gas
The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 10, 2022
How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War
Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 7, 2022
Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia?
The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Mar 2, 2022
Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas
It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 28, 2022
Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine
The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 22, 2022
What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness?
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.’s involvement in Ukraine.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 17, 2022
Is Boris Johnson Finished?
Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries’ news cycles and consider their lasting impact.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 14, 2022
Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting
The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 10, 2022
Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem
Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 7, 2022
Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean?
The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Feb 3, 2022
Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters
Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 31, 2022
The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked
The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 26, 2022
Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring
The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader political environment in a Midterm election year.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 24, 2022
Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue
The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 18, 2022
Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw
The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 13, 2022
How Likely Is Another Civil War?
In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” It’s a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 10, 2022
How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out
The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jan 4, 2022
Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point
In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 27, 2021
What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021
The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 20, 2021
Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better
President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 13, 2021
How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP?
According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 9, 2021
Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump?
Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 6, 2021
Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022
On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Dec 2, 2021
What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 29, 2021
About Those 2024 Polls ...
The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 22, 2021
What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For
The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 18, 2021
What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver
Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 15, 2021
The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling
We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 12, 2021
This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change
On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 8, 2021
Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy?
Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 3, 2021
A Good Election Night For Republicans
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Nov 1, 2021
Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond
The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 28, 2021
Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond
We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the president’s requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. Raffensperger's new book is called “Integrity Counts."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 25, 2021
What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill?
The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 21, 2021
Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy
Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 18, 2021
What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular?
The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 14, 2021
What Happens When Local News Disappears
Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 11, 2021
The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling
The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a “good or bad use of polling” on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 7, 2021
Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19
Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Oct 4, 2021
Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?
The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 30, 2021
How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data
The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 27, 2021
Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?
The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 23, 2021
What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections
It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 20, 2021
Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?
Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 15, 2021
The California Recall Election Wasn't Close
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 13, 2021
Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?
The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is legal.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 7, 2021
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days
American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Sep 2, 2021
Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas
Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 30, 2021
The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?
As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administration’s handling of the end of the war.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 19, 2021
Model Talk: How Climate Models Work
Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 16, 2021
What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan
The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 10, 2021
Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns
The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 9, 2021
Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?
The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 4, 2021
How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal
The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Aug 2, 2021
Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive
The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 29, 2021
What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike
The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 26, 2021
Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?
Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 22, 2021
The Great Inflation Debate
According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 19, 2021
Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?
Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 15, 2021
Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling
We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 12, 2021
A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?
The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 8, 2021
Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away
Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 6, 2021
What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020
Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jul 2, 2021
What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term
On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 28, 2021
Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan
A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 24, 2021
Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions
Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 22, 2021
What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation
The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 17, 2021
Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race
Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 14, 2021
The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections
The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 10, 2021
How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics
During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: America’s Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 7, 2021
One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms
Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator.
They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 4, 2021
How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party
In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
Jun 1, 2021
The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up
The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 27, 2021
What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us
New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 24, 2021
A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death
History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 20, 2021
20 Questions With Nate And Galen
Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 17, 2021
Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?
The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 13, 2021
Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'
Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson."
-
In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of…
playlist_add
May 10, 2021
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?
What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 6, 2021
How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior
The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add
May 3, 2021
Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas
The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
playlist_add