EP241 - Holiday Preview with eMarketer's Andrew Lipsman
EP241 - Holiday Preview with eMarketer's Andrew Lipsman
Andrew Lipsman (@alipsman) is the Principal Analyst for retail and e-commerce for eMarketer. In this episode, Andrew gives listeners an advanced preview of eMarketer’s holiday forecast, and we do a deep dive into all the factors that will play into this holiday season. This holiday season may have more uncertainty for brands and retailers than any other holiday season in our lifetime, so it’s well worth the listen.
This is an exclusive preview of one of the most anticipated holiday forecasts in the industry. Key Topics:
* Vectors that influence holiday forecasts
* The forecast
* Can retailers pull holiday in early?
* How will the cyber-5 play out
* Category winners and losers
* Retail winners and losers
* How to follow the season eMarketer Holiday 2020 Forecast
* Total retail +0.9% to $1.013 trillion
* Ecommerce +35.8% growth to $190B (+ $50B in ecommerce sales vs. last year)
* Brick-and-mortar -4.7% to $823B
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Episode 241 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded live on Tuesday, October 21, 2020.
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 241 being recorded on Tuesday October 20th 2020 that’s a lot of 20s,
I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo.
[0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners we are 20 days into the fourth quarter and 11 a day 11 days away from Halloween,
retailers would say we’re squarely in Holiday mode consumers would say it’s not Thanksgiving yet so we’re about 30 days out.
Regardless of which side of the fence you’re on their most of you are probably on the retail side,
we want to use this episode to do a really deep dive into what we can expect this holiday 2020 we’ve already previewed some of this with our thoughts around ship And Gettin and whatnot and some of the numbers that are out there,
we’re going to go deep and go deep we thought we would bring out the king of e-commerce and Retail data Andrew lipsman,
Andrew has been at three of the top retail data companies in PD comscore and most recently he is at emarketer’s as a principal analyst.
Also we are excited to have him give us a sneak.
Exclusive to Jason Scott show listeners with the first view of this public holiday forecast from emarketer’s.
Andrew welcome to show and thanks for giving our listeners a sneak peek.
[1:51] Hey thanks for having me.
[1:53] We are thrilled to have you on the show Andrew and it’s super exciting that you’re helping keeping our audience at the very bleeding edge of insight and predictions,
but before we jump into all that we always like to start by getting to know a little bit about our guests
so you know Scott kind of mention the highlights but can you give us a little bit of detail about how you got into the the analyst world and and what you’re doing now at emarketer’s.
[2:21] Yeah so I’ve been in market research operating much my whole career
as Scott mentioned NPD working on cpg clients for a few years and then I jump to comscore in November of 2005 and actually I walked into that company
the same week that Cyber Monday became a thing so that was kind of my initiation into the world of e-commerce I really knew nothing about it
coming in and learned very quickly drinking from the fire hose over the next 12 years I led the marketing insights group at comscore had a chance to cover all things digital.
With e-commerce you know kind of being a key tentpole for me every year but all the different Digital Trends from digital video to advertising Social Mobile Etc and then,
coming up on three years now I’ve been at emarketer’s.
[3:16] That’s awesome and I heard you just started doing this new thing called for forecasting the holiday right is this going to be your first year where you forecast holiday.
[3:27] I know I’ve been at it for a while so I’ve actually been working on holiday forecasts back since 2006 my sight
in Uruguay comscore now I would say I am not the quantitative folks who are doing the heavy duty Excel work behind the forecast but I am providing qualitative input
and so in 15 years I’d say I’ve gotten pretty comfortable with
understanding the key variables that go into holiday e-commerce and many years I’d say it’s almost gotten kind of easy,
but this year I think is going to be very very different and one of the
actually will probably be the hardest to predict there’s only one other season that really Compares anywhere close to this one.
[4:14] Awesome well before we jump into the exclusive for Jason Scott show listener sneak peek of your forecast let’s start at 30,000 foot view plus I love to build the suspense
Jason’s like about the fall off his chair right now I can tell so let’s make him wait so I would love to hear as a data guy,
you know you’ve been at this a while and I’m sure you’ve refined how you come at it
I would love to kind of start there and say well what are the inputs you look at and maybe more importantly what are some of the inputs you don’t look at and maybe if you know how are you applying that to Holiday 2020.
[4:51] Yeah so in a normal year
the recipe really starts and this is for e-commerce specifically really looking closely at August data that back-to-school season ends up being very predictive for the growth rate for the holiday season so I
start with your thinking that August is kind of that the fundamentals heading into the season that’s your Baseline and then there’s just a couple of.
[5:15] Key variables that we looked at after that any shifts in key macroeconomic factors unemployment obviously if that’s changing and people
or losing jobs then,
you have to calibrate for that because that’s less disposable income consumer confidence how they feel about extending their credit into the season and then gas prices is one of those things that can just put more money in people’s pockets or take money out
pretty simple and then the key piece and one that I don’t think folks often look to very much but actually can end up making
you know percentage pointer to difference every year is just how the holiday calendar Falls so when you have those years with the really compressed holiday season
with only 27 or even 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas that does tend to squeeze spending people may prioritize gifts and still get all those purchases done
but they may spend a little bit less on themselves so it can dampen the growth rate sometimes you have those extended Seasons that are 32 days
and that can maybe boost it by a pointer to so those are in a normal year kind of the key factors.
[6:25] So you’ve qualified like four times in there a normal year so what so then you have all that and then now we’ve got this raging pandemic what have you done to kind of tweak the model based on kind of unique circumstances of the 2020 offers.
[6:40] Yeah well first off I will say that almost all of those factors have been completely overwhelmed by pandemic conditions but I’ll start by taking you back to 2008 which was the hardest
forecast that we ever had to predict if you could remember how the financial crisis happened
August wouldn’t be very predictive because things still looked okay in August of that year and then September and October
things dropped very quickly and we were starting to get readings e-…