MarketFoolery
MarketFoolery
Sep 21, 2020
Nikola Founder Quits
Play episode · 25 min

Nikola’s founder quits effective immediately and shares of the electric truck maker fall 20%. Deutsche Bank and HSBC hit all-time lows in the wake of financial scandals. Brookfield Asset Management shares are down for the year, prompting questions of a potential buying opportunity for the stock. Bill Barker analyzes those stories and discusses the latest medical research on the health benefits of coffee.

Alpha Trader
Alpha Trader
Seeking Alpha
Massive opportunity in 'digital transformation' - Jon Markman joins Alpha Trader
This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking (mostly) tech with Jon Markman, founder and president of Markman Capital Insight. Before getting into individual stock picks, Markman first looks at the big picture: Going back about 80 years, whenever the Fed steps in to put the brakes on a bear market, one should expect the averages to go up five times over the following ten years. The Fed helped end the bear market, says Markman, on March 23 this year. Applying that 5x multiple to what the Dow (DJI) and the Nasdaq (COMP) were that day leads to 91,000 on the Dow and almost 34,000 on the Nasdaq in roughly 10 years. Before considering that extreme, consider that the S&P 500 (SP500) bottomed in 2009 at 666. Markman's target then for that index was 3,330, which was hit late in 2019. This, of course, doesn't mean that there will be any number of scares and sizable corrections along the way. These should be thought of as buying opportunities, particularly for those companies leading and benefitting from the "digital transformation," which Markman defines as the use of data and software to build new business models. A great example of this is Netflix (NFLX), which over two decades went from being a mail-order DVD business to offering bits of data in the cloud. Tap an image on your electronic device of choice, and the show begins. The company has 193M customers, a $234B market cap, and a stock that's up something like 15,000% over 20 years - all from harnessing the digital revolution. As you might imagine given the major wave he's talking about, Markman doesn't have a ton of interest in Netflix's earnings this week. Over the next 10-20 years, Netflix and others leading the digital revolution - think Amazon (AMZN), Peloton (PTON), and Zoom Video (ZM) to name just three - are all going to be multi-baggers (though Peloton and Zoom might be due for a correction). Now the above are very well-known (and hot) names. Maybe not as well-known, but with an equally great opportunity, is a player like Schrodinger (SDGR), a company delivering healthcare using digital tools. Another digital healthcare play is For those wishing to ride the digital revolution, but undecided about which horse to ride, Markman suggests Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) as - more than any other companies - perfectly levered to e-commerce and the transformation of money to software. Other digital transformation long ideas discussed in the podcast, include The Trade Desk (TTD), a platform for the buying and selling of digital ad inventory, and enterprise workflow platform operator ServiceNow (NOW). Both have eye-popping charts, but massive opportunity over the next decade still awaits. We couldn't let Markman go without comment on two tech megacaps - Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). He's a fan of Microsoft, giving its post-Ballmer management kudos for moving the focus of the company away from selling devices and instead selling into the high-margin areas of digital space. He's not bullish on Apple though, worried about waning iPhone sales, and questioning the ability of the company to replace that revenue with other devices and services.
41 min
The Long View
The Long View
Morningstar
Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates
Our guest on the podcast today is Karsten Jeske, the founder of the website EarlyRetirementNow and a thoughtful and technically proficient member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) community. In 2018, Karsten retired in his early 40s, after a career in the financial world. He served as Director of Asset Allocation Research for Mellon Capital Management from 2008 through 2018, and before that, was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for a decade. Karsten has his PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota and has taught undergraduate and PhD-level economics at Emory University. He's also a chartered financial analyst. Background Karsten Jeske Bio Early Retirement Now FIRE Definition The Pandemic’s Impact on the FIRE Movement “The Shortest Recession Ever? My Thoughts on the State of the Economy,” by Karsten Jenke, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 25, 2020. “Tanja Hester: The Pandemic Will Stoke Interest in Early Retirement,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, June 3, 2020. “The Coronavirus Pandemic and Retirement Security,” by Mark Miller, Morningstar.com, Aug. 24, 2020. “Retiring During a Pandemic,” by Christine Benz and Maria Bruno, Morningstar.com, Aug. 14, 2020. “Can You Retire Early? Should You?” by Christine Benz and Susan Dziubinski, Aug. 7, 2020. Early Withdrawal Rates for Early Retirees The Trinity Study The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series--A Guide for First-Time Readers “Do We Really Have to Lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% Now?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 31, 2020. Shiller P/E Ratio Definition “Who’s Afraid of a Bear Market?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Oct. 30, 2019. Low Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates “Jamie Hopkins: How Low Bond Yields, Recession Impact Retirement Planning,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, July 14, 2020. “Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule is No Longer Safe,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, April 29, 2020. “What Ultralow Yields Mean for Your Financial and Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, May 4, 2020. “Low Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere. Here’s What That Means for Retirement Planning,” by David Blanchett, ThinkAdvisor.com, Aug. 14, 2020. IRA Required Minimum Distribution Worksheet Bogleheads’ Variable Percentage Withdrawal Sequence of Return Risk/Asset Allocation Sequence Risk Definition “The Extraordinary Upside Potential of Sequence of Return Risk in Retirement,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Feb. 20, 2019. “The Pros and Cons of Rising Equity Glide Paths in Retirement,” by Wade Pfau, forbes.com, May 4, 2017. “The Portfolio Size Effect and Using a Bond Tent to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone,” by Michael Kitces, Kitces.com, Oct. 5, 2016. “Cut Stocks or Add to Them? A Key Dilemma to Your Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, morningstar.com, July 25, 2019. “How to Determine Asset Allocation in a Retirement Portfolio,” interview with Christine Benz and David Blanchett, Morningstar.com, April 29, 2015. “The Yield Illusion: How Can a High-Dividend Portfolio Exacerbate Sequence Risk?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Feb. 13, 2019. Healthcare and the FIRE Movement “Top 3 Health Insurance Options If You Retire Early,” by Thom Tracy, Investopedia.com, April 14, 2020. “How Does the F.I.R.E Movement Affect Insurance?” by Brianna Slattery, clearsurance.com, Jan. 23, 2020. “The Ten Commandments of Whole Life Insurance,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Sept. 26, 2018. Health Care Sharing Ministry Affordable Care Act Social Security “Taxation of Social Security: The Tax Torpedo & Roth Conversion Tightrope,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Nov. 13, 2019. “Social Security Benefits: Early or Late Retirement?” ssa.gov. Networking & Socializing in Retirement “Work, Retirement, and Social Networks at Older Ages,” by Eleonora Patacchini and Gary V. Engelhardt, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, November 2016. “Why It’s Important to Stay Social in Retirement and How to Do It,” by Rob Pascale, forbes.com, Oct. 31, 2019.
48 min
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